AnythingO's

I (we) don't know what the O's are likely to spend, what limits ME has, or who is available. I think they will take salaries from $71 M (2023) to $85 M. We need a better SP than Gibson. I WANT to offer ERod 4 @ $78 M (18,19,20,21M) with a 5th year option ($22M) contingent on 450 Inn in the first 3 years w/ sub 4.25 ERA. I expect over 475 inn at sub 4.0 ERA in the first 3 years. I don't believe ERod turns down 5yrs @ $100 M for one of his 3 preferred trade locations. Basically, Gibson-Frazier salaries pay for most of that. Absent that, trade for Cease with the top 100 guy being Ortiz with Norby/Stowers plus lower lottery tickets. You could twist my arm for Cowser over Ortiz but they only get 1. Failing that a 1-year upgrade over Gibson from whoever is available. In the BP I assume Tate will be healthy (tendered) joining Baker and Perez in setup. Hall, Wells. Cano as closer by committee. Webb and Columbe for the last 2. Zimm, Baumann, Akin, McDermett etc in AAA. Maybe try Lopez or Fugi as a reclamation project in AAA. Trade Urias and O'Hearn to MIA for Trevor Rogers, they need offense and infield defense. Add a Stowers/Norby if needed. Maybe one of Hall-Rogers can stick in the SP rotation. Trade Santa mid-year for more pitching help after Kjerstad and Cowser settle in.

Would Westburg be a comp, about the same height and good tools across the board?

OOOOhhhh, the SigBot won't like that look for the effectiveness of the play review camera crew, NO SOUP FOR YOU!!!

JA doesn't have the money to buy back squat. I am almost positive the 24% owned by Tom Clancy is still with the Clancy estate divided amongst his heirs. There was an additional 10% or 11% with Peter Angelos' friends, I know he bought out one of them in financial difficulty and Pam Shriver had 2 %.I guess that at most JA controls 66%.

I thought that there would be a Capital Gains reset when the team passed to Georgia after PA's death so they could avoid that by waiting. Wasn't that why JA nixed the sale process Georgia had started?

While I agree with you re: ME, in a what if scenario if you could trade Santander for Soto that would save them $20 M while increasing our Payroll a like amount. He primarily plays 1B-DH, surpasses Santander's production, you hit him with a QO which he would decline. What's the value of the increased production in Santander's old spot, plus the value of the comp pick, plus the value of a true MOO bat for 2024?? Is that worth $20 M for 1 year while giving more opportunity for Kjerstad, Cowser to get established vs Hicks, McKenna?? I'm assuming O'Hearn is traded and Santa moves primarily to 1B-DH.

I went back on Spotrac and checked the Salary numbers for 2020-2022 and if you DON'T include the deferred salaries (Davis, O'Day,..) then the numbers agree with the Forbes data in my spreadsheet. That method says 2023 was $71 M in Salaries. Interesting that Deferred salary has grown from $4 M to $10 M to $15 M in 2021 to 2023 so that helps to explain the delta between Salaries and Payroll (incl. Expenses) varying from year to year. From 2021 to 2022 Revenue rose $13 M while attendance rose by 7,374 per game. In 2023 Salaries rose $26 M and Operating Income dropped $16 M, so JA took a Profit reduction in 2922. In 2023 attendance rose another 6,368 per game so I estimate Revenue rising another $11-12 M in 2023 which should be applied to Salaries so about $82-83 M.

If we trade O'Hearn (prob peak value) and move Santa to 1B-DH mostly (keep healthy), then there should be 400 ABs in RF for Kjerstad. IMO Cowser needs to show he can cover CF to be able to spell both Mullins and Hays. If he can do that defensively and hit a bit he could get 300 ABs. Hyde would need to IL the vets when they get hurt instead of letting them play through it. I doubt Hyde will do that though so you are probably right. I trust Kjerstad more than Cowser.

The only struggling vets that should be on this team in 2024 should be Hays and Mullins (when injured), Mounty (when dizzy). I can live with Santa and McCann ups and downs. Frazier, Hicks gone, O'Hearn and one of Urias/Mateo traded. Santa more at 1B-DH for Kjerstad in RF.

ERod IMO is the best bet for 30 starts and 150+ inn with sub 4 ERA. He is the youngest at 30 yo and a lefty, and had BAL as one of his 3 approved destinations at the trade deadline. I would offer 4@$78 M with a 5th year option at $22 M if he goes 450 inn at sub 4.0 ERA in the first 3 years combined. Gray's 2023 season at 34 is most like his OAK years in 2014-2015, I view that as an outlier relative to going forward. Stroman at 32 seems to be a 25 start, 130ish inn guy. The lower AAV, for longer term, for the youngest pitcher, in a location he preferred, and a lefty. Sign ERod.

The only Trevor I want is Trevor Rogers, Miami's version of DL Hall.

I hear in this thread that MIA needs a SS and offense. We want a backend RP for 1 year. Scott seems logical but 6 years of Ortiz seems too much. Many suggest Ortiz as a piece for Cease. What about Mateo who could start for several teams just for his defense, and one of Norby/Stowers, neither of which have a path forward here, for Scott and Rogers? Rogers missed most of the year but the injury was a torn Lat on his non-pitching side. He is expected to be full go in ST.

Per Fangraphs Speed rating, which includes a base running component, (5.0 is good, 6.0 is excellent): Westburg (6.6), Ortiz (6.5), Kjerstad (6.0), Norby (5.1), Cowser (4.9), Stowers (3.9), Mayo (3.3)

The remainder of Hick's Yankee contract is: It will cost the Yankees about $19 million for him to play against them in their own division—$9 million each for 2024 and 2025, with a $1 million buyout of a $12.5 million club option for 2026.

For those who think Kjerstad is going to have a lot of swing and miss, in 377 PAs in AAA his SO rate was 20.5% vs Cowser at 26.8% in 399 PAs. Folks say Cowser outhit Kjerstad at AAA based on HK's final numbers of 0.298 0.371 0.498 for an OPS of 0.870. What that line obscures is that the end of July he was at 0.341 0.415 0.588 for an OPS of 1.017. After getting back on the field in June of 2022 after a 2 years layoff, at A and A+, then AFL, then more rehab, ST in 2023, AA and AAA, he absolutely cratered in August and hit only 0.228 in 105 ABs but then rebounded to 0.375 in 40 ABs before promotion to BAL. His AA numbers were equal or slightly better than Holiday's, Heston's bat is MLB ready. I expect him to come to ST on a mission to start and he will have a SO rate lower than Cowser's 28.6%, an OBP over 0.300 and an OPS over 0.750.

I agree, Means is in the rotation. I HOPE Hyde doesn't ride him hard or I anticipate a Wells-like outcome. It would be good if Hyde utilized his long men more early in games vs matching up in 1-inning stints.

I agree with you, I absolutely don't see them getting 2 SPs better than Kremer. The point I was trying to make was that if Kremer is your #5 (as many here say) then you need 2 SPs because Means in unlikely to hold #3 slot. Frobby is correct also, "fantasy" was too strong a word. However counting on Means to pitch like Bradish, GRod, Kremer did this year is WC-like optimistic. Means' high is 26 starts, pre-TJ. In the first year back "expecting" him to better that mark and increase his IP by 75 IP or more is very optimistic. We were very lucky with B, G, and K this year re: injuries, I don't expect that to repeat.

Means has a total of 380 IP in his career with ERA of 3.7, he threw a total of 65 IP this year. To count on more than 100 IP in 2024 from Means is fantasy. If Kremer is your #5 filling the innings eater role then SG is right, we need 2 SPs better than Kremer or you need to made Well-Means a tandem which most seem to thing is a bad idea.

It was also like that in 2019 ($41.9M) so I don't think so. The only common factor is Elias so I wonder if he is doing something clever. They renegotiated Chris Davis's future year after he lost some money in 2020 due to COVID, maybe that could get counted in 2022 somehow????? Maybe they are forward paying toward International players health care and/or the Dominican Academy??? I really can't come up anything realistic.

I was the one who posted the numbers and yes they had Operating Income (Profits) of $83 M in 2021 and $67 M in 2022. However, Salaries were $45.7 M and $44.9 M those years and 2022 was one of the years when benefits jumped up to $38.1 M for some unknown reason. The years they lost money were 2016-2018 when Salaries were $143 M to $164 M, Payroll was $161 M to $183 M. Benefits were in the $15 M to $18 M range then.

From working with the Forbes numbers I would say a $140 M Payroll would require deficit spending which JA will never do IMO. Also note that Payroll is Salaries plus benefits. Most years benefits are around $20M but in 2019 and 2022 benefits were around $40 M each year but there is no explanation for the year t year variance. If benefits are $40 M than Salaries are $100 M in a $140 M Payroll.

Folks are saying we have too many prospects/players and not enough slots, I don't agree. Move O'Hearn and Santander fills his 1B/DH slot. AT can also be a backup RF. Your 4 OFs are Hays, Mullins, Cowser, and Kjerstad with Hays as the backup CF. All 4 play 3/4 time which should help with Hays-Mullins annual injuries. Hyde needs to IL them when hurt. Gunnar is left side and until he shows he CAN'T handle SS so is Jackson but not on OD. He only has 100 ABs at AAA let him polish his craft for a few months. Westburg did well at 2B and can backup 3B. Ultimately those 3 are your infield. Mayo won't be better than Gunnar or Westburg at 3B so shift to 1B so he is ready in 2025 to replace Santander. That leaves Ortiz who should start as SS on OD for a few months to see if he hits enough to be a starter. If not, when Jackson is ready, Ortiz is backup INF or traded. The extras are Stowers and Norby and nobody is making any spots for them in BAL due to defensive challenges and offensive questions no matter how much we like the bats. Urias has no role going forward, his 3B defense slumped as did his bat. He joins O'Hearn, Stowers, Norby as movable parts. Last man is Mateo who showed improved defense after recovering from injury and his bat works against lefties. He can backup SS (Ortiz) and 2B (Westburg) for a few months until Jackson is ready. If he can credibly backup CF even better. When Jackson arrives you decide between Ortiz and Mateo, loser gets voted off the island.

How many innings can we really depend on from Means, and he is a FA to boot after 2024. Is he next years Wells where the endurance just isn't there? Do they think Povich, McDermott, Johnson will be ready after Means? Maybe they only want someone like Gibson to eat 175+ so we need less of Irvin and Wells? I would prefer ERod who said he would approve a trade to BOS, BAL and 1 other team, maybe Miami. I assume he has to wait until 5 days after the WS but maybe not with an opt out. He is an upgrade, a lefty, and will give 175 innings. Can we talk to DET or his agent before he opts out?

I just looked at MLB top 100 prospects and Cowser, Kjerstad, and Ortiz are still there but not Westburg who had over 200 ABs. Still have 6 in the Top 50 but almost every one is a 2024 candidate except Basallo. I think HK makes a run at ROY like Adley and Gunnar. We need the next wave to replenish the graduates.

I think Harper was safe, never tagged him lol. Yeah, I remember that one, tentative, not a strong throw. Scout ratings have Cowser with 55 speed and Kjerstad at 40 but when I look at Cowser running I don't see that kind of speed. They also said Hjerstad has a long complicated swing that could give him trouble at the MLB level. I see a really quick bat and he seems balanced even with the big leg kick. He fights off outside pitches and goes the other way. Cowser's SO rate at AAA is like Stowers, about 27% while Kjerstad is more like Westburg and Norby 21-22%, just above Ortiz and Vavra around 18-19%. We know Westburg and Ortiz are fast but Fangraphs has Vavra as 7.1, Westburg 6.6, Ortiz 6.5, Kjerstad 6.0, while Cowser is 4.9, Norby 5.1, Stowers 3.9, Mayo 3.3 where 5.0 is good and 6.0 is excellent. Maybe Vavra can become 5th OF with that speed.