Yeah I am well aware of that spreadsheet, I linked a similar one in my post. That is what I am using.
For 2013 we might be around $100 million, BUT that is assuming we re sign everyone including Reynolds. If not it is around $90 million.
After that, with my best estimation in my crystal ball I have about $90 million in 2014, $81 million in 2015, and in 2016 nothing even remotely that close because it is hard to project out that far and salary commitments drop off a cliff. That includes every single Arb eligible player back, Weiters getting max (arb) money and no one leaving.
I can list all the players I have down and for what if that would help.
Player...............2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nick Markakis....15.35 15.53 10.00 11.00 12.00
Brian Roberts....10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adam Jones.......8.83 13.33 13.33 16.33 16.33 17.33
JJ Hardy............7.42 7.42 6.00 7.00 8.00
Mark Reynolds...8.00 8.00 0.00
Jim Johnson......6.90 FA FA
Jason Hammel...6.50 FA FA
Matt Weiters......4.50 7.50 12.50 FA
Tsuyoshi Wada...4.07 OPT FA
Wei- Yen Chen...3.66 4.16 0.37
Nate McLouth.....2.50 3.50 FA
Wilson Betemit...2.00 OPT FA
Darren O'Day.....2.20 4.50 FA
Bobby Andino.....1.80 2.50 FA
Dylan Bundy.......1.25 1.25 1.25
Troy Patton.........0.80 2.50 2.50 A4 FA
Luis Ayala...........1.00 FA FA
Miguel Gonzales..1.00 1.00 3.50 6.00 8.00 A4 FA
Brian Matusz......1.00 2.00 3.50 A4 FA
Chris Tillman......1.00 2.00 5.00 A2 A3 FA
Joe Saunders.......FA FA FA
Taylor Teagarden.0.80 1.50 2.00 FA
Omar Quintenilla.0.80 1.00 1.50 FA
Pedro Strop........1.00 3.00 4.50 6.00 7.00 FA
Tommy Hunter...1.80 2.00 2.50 FA
Manny Machado..1.00 1.00 1.00
Chris Davis.........3.30 5.50 8.00 FA
Nolan Reimold.....1.00 2.00 3.00 FA
Steve Johnson....1.00 1.00 1.00
Lew Ford............0.60 1.00 1.50
Ryan Flaherty.....1.00 1.00 1.50 A2 A3 FA
Xavier Avery
Eduardo Rodriguez
Nick Delmonico 0.70
Steve Pearce
Joe Mahoney
Stu Pomeranz
Zach Clark
Oliver Drake
Louis Exposito
Jake Arrietta......1.00 1.50 2.50 4.00
(If you see numbers in there that are obviously not right I put them in there for estimations, like Markakis for example. I know I could be off but I made my best guess. Feel free to correct anything and put your own numbers in)
Look I just want the facts, I am sure there are some things missing, wrong projections so feel free to correct anything that is wrong and I will change it. I tried to estimate with "worst case scenario" numbers. Some of these guys I have included will be older and who knows if we will even keep them (Hardy as an example). Included them anyway. Some young guys who knows how they will produce, gave them benefit of doubt as well.
Also with the "MLB inflation" a $100 million payroll will be nothing in a few years, contenders in the AL will be spending $150 million. Heck in 2012 there were already 10 teams over that threshold, and I bet it goes to about 14 if not more in 2013. The salaries and payroll just continue to get higher every year.
You have to keep up, and if you don't you will be left behind. Especially in our division and in this sport.
Last 15 teams to win World series average payroll adjusted for inflation....$116 million (actual $100 million, going back to 1998). To win the AL it is $120 million.(actual $101.5 million). That like everything else in MLB will jump in large increments as the years go on.
Unless you plan on developing the next Josh Hamilton and waiting 5 years for him, you might just have to get that on the free agent market for once in the last 15 years. I know it is crazy and stupid according to most around here, but teams really do use this avenue to improve their team quite often. Teams that win it all usually have a few of these players, because they know they can't just magically develop every single thing they need from the farm system on cue. All some of us are asking for in ONE. ONE in 15 years if the price is reasonable.