TradeAngelos

Try going back 10-15 years and see what you find. I have. Average out the payrolls of teams who make it deep, and who win it all.

Not true.

As the money keeps flowing so will the wins. If not for a complete catastrophe of injuries and other off field issues Yanks would have been right there with Red Sox.

We are at about $120 mm for 2013 keeping Reynolds and McLouth with X free agent (obv Grienke/Hamilton) How does it get harder after that? We have money coming off the books every year until 2014, and then it is just Jones and presumably Wieters making the "big" money. Between the two they will probably be $20 mm between the two, maybe $22 mm at the most if we extend Wieters. Don't see how it gets harder at all. Who is "the core" moving forward that we will have big bucks tied into? Jones, Wieters and who else?

I take the younger player every single day of the week and twice on Sunday, without thinking twice. It isn't even a decision. We have more than enough circumstantial evidence to suggest we do know what they are capable of IMO. No one is asking to spend $200 million and be the Yankees. Just bump the payroll up from $100 to $120 million and this team will flat out contend year in and year out, because there will be that one superstar added to an already good playoff team and core. The Jays could have "stayed pat" but guess what, they saw the writing on the wall and have been acting accordingly recently. I just wish the O's would do the same. They still might, and if they do I will be the first one singing their praises. It isn't that much a payroll difference, but I think it makes the team so much better overall. I am holding out hope. Just think the margin for error is too small going with what we have into next year and the couple after that.

We don't have to choose.

LOL you love the hyperbole and putting things in people's mouth you don't agree with don't you? We just want spend $200 million using Pet's "bottomless pit of money!" Yay!! That is what makes you look stupid when trying to argue your point, because NO ONE has said anything of the sort. Ever. I think the Orioles can afford $120 million a year in salary, probably more but we will just leave it at that for now since you need a specific number. I also wouldn't pay Hamilton more than $120 million. Is that clear enough for you or do I need to repeat myself? Since Hamilton and Grienke are not options according to you, who ARE some options next year, or the year after? Will anyone EVER be an option? And good business models don't structure things on a year to year basis, they plan things out for the multiple years to plan accordingly with their budget. Professional sports teams are no different. Obviously things will fluctuate a little bit but if you aren't looking into the future and trying to stay one step ahead there is a problem.

I would bet that those last 5 guys make the minimum those years, they will be roster filler/young guys on first contract. And that baseball reference projection is assuming we keep every single player on the current roster, and none of them fall by the wayside in the next couple years. That won't happen. Are all the deep Arb 3 and 4's going to still be here and on the books at those numbers they project? Who knows, probably not for one reason or another. It also looks like they have us picking up Markakis $17.5 million option in 2015 which is not happening in this lifetime, am I reading that right?

Ok so we can agree that this "$100 million benchmark" that folks want to use as some indicator for now until eternity is constantly changing and going higher, every single year. I am all for locking up our own players long term, and using a little Tampa strategy if that is what it takes. Heck I would sign Wieters to a 10 year deal right now, but what have to Orioles ever done to give me confidence that is even an option? Even being discussed? Who are these players outside of Wieters who are we talking about here.....Machado?? I would lock him up too. Outside of those two you have a bunch of question marks, or stop gap players. Young guys and who knows what they turn out to be. Not paying Jim Johnson right? Not worth it to pay closers market rate so he will be gone. It just seems like we are stuck in the middle, like we have been forever. Not doing anything proactive like that, and at the same time refusing to use free agency in any capacity. I would love to see both, but indications are that isn't happening. Like MSK and others have said it is always something, about every single FA, every year. Always an excuse why we can't afford this, why that guy won't be right for us. It is actually pretty comical that we have a glaring need in LF AND a MOO bat, yet some will still claim Hamilton is "not a fit". Ok so you don't want to spend on free agency? Then start talks with Wieters and Machado and get something done. Extend Hammel. Re sign Reynolds for 3 years. Get anything done to secure the future of this team. Adam Jones can't do it by himself.

Yeah I am well aware of that spreadsheet, I linked a similar one in my post. That is what I am using. For 2013 we might be around $100 million, BUT that is assuming we re sign everyone including Reynolds. If not it is around $90 million. After that, with my best estimation in my crystal ball I have about $90 million in 2014, $81 million in 2015, and in 2016 nothing even remotely that close because it is hard to project out that far and salary commitments drop off a cliff. That includes every single Arb eligible player back, Weiters getting max (arb) money and no one leaving. I can list all the players I have down and for what if that would help. Player...............2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Nick Markakis....15.35 15.53 10.00 11.00 12.00 Brian Roberts....10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Adam Jones.......8.83 13.33 13.33 16.33 16.33 17.33 JJ Hardy............7.42 7.42 6.00 7.00 8.00 Mark Reynolds...8.00 8.00 0.00 Jim Johnson......6.90 FA FA Jason Hammel...6.50 FA FA Matt Weiters......4.50 7.50 12.50 FA Tsuyoshi Wada...4.07 OPT FA Wei- Yen Chen...3.66 4.16 0.37 Nate McLouth.....2.50 3.50 FA Wilson Betemit...2.00 OPT FA Darren O'Day.....2.20 4.50 FA Bobby Andino.....1.80 2.50 FA Dylan Bundy.......1.25 1.25 1.25 Troy Patton.........0.80 2.50 2.50 A4 FA Luis Ayala...........1.00 FA FA Miguel Gonzales..1.00 1.00 3.50 6.00 8.00 A4 FA Brian Matusz......1.00 2.00 3.50 A4 FA Chris Tillman......1.00 2.00 5.00 A2 A3 FA Joe Saunders.......FA FA FA Taylor Teagarden.0.80 1.50 2.00 FA Omar Quintenilla.0.80 1.00 1.50 FA Pedro Strop........1.00 3.00 4.50 6.00 7.00 FA Tommy Hunter...1.80 2.00 2.50 FA Manny Machado..1.00 1.00 1.00 Chris Davis.........3.30 5.50 8.00 FA Nolan Reimold.....1.00 2.00 3.00 FA Steve Johnson....1.00 1.00 1.00 Lew Ford............0.60 1.00 1.50 Ryan Flaherty.....1.00 1.00 1.50 A2 A3 FA Xavier Avery Eduardo Rodriguez Nick Delmonico 0.70 Steve Pearce Joe Mahoney Stu Pomeranz Zach Clark Oliver Drake Louis Exposito Jake Arrietta......1.00 1.50 2.50 4.00 (If you see numbers in there that are obviously not right I put them in there for estimations, like Markakis for example. I know I could be off but I made my best guess. Feel free to correct anything and put your own numbers in) Look I just want the facts, I am sure there are some things missing, wrong projections so feel free to correct anything that is wrong and I will change it. I tried to estimate with "worst case scenario" numbers. Some of these guys I have included will be older and who knows if we will even keep them (Hardy as an example). Included them anyway. Some young guys who knows how they will produce, gave them benefit of doubt as well. Also with the "MLB inflation" a $100 million payroll will be nothing in a few years, contenders in the AL will be spending $150 million. Heck in 2012 there were already 10 teams over that threshold, and I bet it goes to about 14 if not more in 2013. The salaries and payroll just continue to get higher every year. You have to keep up, and if you don't you will be left behind. Especially in our division and in this sport. Last 15 teams to win World series average payroll adjusted for inflation....$116 million (actual $100 million, going back to 1998). To win the AL it is $120 million.(actual $101.5 million). That like everything else in MLB will jump in large increments as the years go on. Unless you plan on developing the next Josh Hamilton and waiting 5 years for him, you might just have to get that on the free agent market for once in the last 15 years. I know it is crazy and stupid according to most around here, but teams really do use this avenue to improve their team quite often. Teams that win it all usually have a few of these players, because they know they can't just magically develop every single thing they need from the farm system on cue. All some of us are asking for in ONE. ONE in 15 years if the price is reasonable.

Could you project out the next couple of years and tell us where this "$100 million payroll" is coming from in our own players? I don't even see it for 2013, and sure as heck don't see it after that. Oh I forgot, all our retreads are going to be superstars and we are going to sign them all to big contracts I guess. Build from within!! Free agents just destroy teams and never help them to win! The fact is we have ONE guy signed long term right now in Jones. ONE. We have as much payroll flexibility over the next 4-5 years as any team in MLB, even counting signing guys like Wieters to long term deals. Any other current Orioles who are going to break the bank that I am unaware of? Lay it out for all the stupid people who don't know what we are talking about. https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t50_b9iaARDxOK6TPjab3gQ&output=html See if that helps.