terpoh
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Posts posted by terpoh
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Today could be the day that finally mathematically eliminates the Orioles. The only possible track to the post season is 6-0 and either the Rays or Mariners going 0-6 or 0-7. Any combination of an Orioles loss or a Rays/Mariners win officially eliminates the O's.
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12 hours ago, RZNJ said:
The 3rd game with Houston. Was it Santander with the 2-run homer in the top of the 9th. A 2-run lead with Bautista coming back out for the 9th. He's human but that was a real momentum breaker. We were one strike away (1-2) count from closing that one out.
This one is a the top of the list for me as well. We had just won two straight against Houston and 3 straight over all while Seattle was starting to falter. Back and forth game, but that 2 run homer by Tony seemed to have put us over the top. And to lose that game in that fashion seemed to have been the start of the recent struggles which ended the playoff hopes.
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One thing I will say as well - he has looked far more comfortable in the OF vs when he first came up.
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Very close to 2 on no out and not scoring again if not for heroic slide by Stowers
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11 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
The O's have the A lineup today. Let's get the win and lock up a .500 season.
I especially like when the O's have Mateo 9th and Mullins 1st. Must drive pitchers crazy when both of them get on base at the same time.
I would say when the Orioles get two runners on, the opposing team has us right where they want us. Its usually followed up by a strikeout, pop up and groundout.
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7 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
Gunnar OPS vs LHP .488
Gunnar OPS vs LH SP 1.087
Not hard to figure out is it?
In 18 at bats?
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Wonder if he'll pinch hit Stowers for Aguilar in the 5th against the Sox RHP reliever?
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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:
Always good to hope, but Mountcastle this year looks very similar to last year (.306 vs .309) except with fewer HR (possibly due to the wall).
Santander is hitting .325 this year at Age 27 despite career around .300 so you never know. Then again I'm not sure if .325 is just random noise for Santander or something he will sustain.
His numbers have been similar but he has also had a lot of bad luck which would certainly push him higher in BA and OBP if those reverse. Just the eye test but he has looked more selective recently as well. Maybe a small sample size, maybe a trend in the right direction.
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4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Is that really likely, jettisoning all the low OBP players? This year's Astros have won 102 games and are as analytically-inclined as anyone and have five players with 200+ PAs and an OBP less than .305.
I'm hopeful that Mountcastle will continue to develop and will settle around .325 or better OBP most years as a result of a higher batting average but also hopefully with an improved batting eye as well.
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1 hour ago, eddie83 said:
Well I’m going to see this thru.
Obviously hope the ORIOLES win as many as possible. The games for BAL competition looks to be mostly meaningless.. BOS is playing for pride. NYY should have division wrapped before weekend. TOR games could have meaning. TB won season series vs TOR and SEA. SEA won season series vs TOR. BAL loses to ALL except TOR is still 8-8. TOR would need to be up 4 games before last series in loss column to be meaningless
CLE wound up running away with the ALC. HOU magic number for 1 seed is 3. NYY magic number for division is 3. Looks like playoff seeding battle rest of way.
SEATTLE opened the door but the Orioles did not play well enough to take advantage. Two more wins and they would only be 2.5 back with tiebreaker.
ORIOLES in playoffs if one of following happens. 8-8 tie with TOR. Assumes Orioles win tiebreak vs TOR. ORIOLES go 3-7 have winning record.
BAL 9-1 (88) TOR 2-7 TB 3-6 SEA 4-6
BAL 8-2 (87) TOR 1-8 TB 2-7 SEA 3-7
BAL 7-3 (86) TOR 0-9 TB 1-8 SEA 2-8ALWC W L GB GR
- TOR 86 67 +2.0 9
- TB 84 69 +1.5 9
- SEATTLE 83 69 —— 10
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BALTIMORE 79 73 4.0 10
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SCHEDULES
BALTIMORE@BOS 4 @NYY 3 / TOR 3
All other WC contenders
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AL East
TOR
NYY 3 BOS 3 / @BAL 3
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TB
@CLE 3 @HOU 3 / @BOS 3
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AL West
SEA
TEX 3 OAK 3 / DET 4
A lot of work, thanks for putting that together. I believe we should be 4.5 behind Tampa however, not 5.5. Meaning we would have to make up 5, not 6 games. Obviously none of these scenarios are likely. but going 8-2 and Tampa going 3-7 I guess is possible. They do have a very difficult schedule remaining. Would've been great to have not lost the two games this weekend, and not to have lost both games to Detroit. We'd be right in it.
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Seems like a great deal for Seattle, if that what it takes for a TOR #1 guy then sign me up.
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I could see tonights lineup being potentially horrendous against one of the best LHP in baseball.
Chirinos is either going today or tomorrow, so could see Hyde getting him in there vs lefty. Also giving Adley complete day off vs tough lefty and since Aguilar HAS to DH. Gunnar is 0 for his last 10 so get him out of there with a tough lefty and get Urias back in there if hes feeling better. He wont want Vavra vs. lefty either, so although the alternative is also a lefty, Odor veteran presence is better suited. We all know McKenna is the one vs. tough lefties as well.
Hays LF
Mountcastle 1B
Santander RF
Urias 3B
Aguilar DH
Odor 2B
Mckenna CF
Chirinos C
Mateo SS
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That cutter is a thing of beauty.
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2-0 playing all the rookies. Lets make it 3-0 tonight!
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9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
No doubt that's easier for a taller first baseman. But I would love to have data on how often that happens and how often a smaller, quicker guy gets to a ball 30' off the bag that the taller, slower guy doesn't.
We know that third baseman can have a difference of 100 or more chances a year between them. Brooks once fielded 560 balls in a season, Mark Reynolds in the mid 300s. First basemen are basically third basemen without the throwing requirement and perhaps fewer chances because there are fewer LHH. I think there's a good chance range is more important than reach.
Thats a crazy stat wow. How much of that do you believe is attributed to differences in pitching/style of play/era vs Brooks just getting to 200 more baseballs?
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21 hours ago, Pickles said:
I'm defining elite as a global top 20 prospect. There was just a study cited in a thread around here recently that found elite prospects, as such defined, busted about half the time, and that "non-elite" prospects, guys ranked 20-100, which as you point out is still a good prospect, busted 70% of the time.
I know we all like a lot of our prospects. But the fact is, the majority of them aren't going to work out. It's why I'm in no hurry to jettison young cheap and productive major leaguers, players who have led to us winning this year, and just handing jobs to prospects because the prospects are "better."
Show me.
That makes sense. I doubt either of those guys ever make it to top 20 status. Westburg should certainly move up from where hes at in the post season and potentially 2023 pre season rankings but I would see him topping out around maybe 50 in some of the lists.
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10 hours ago, Pickles said:
Right, because they didn't have anything in house. They still don't, beyond Urias. That's the point.
Rookies of Ortiz and Westburg's status, that is to say non-elite, should be given the opportunity to win jobs. Productive young players on sensible contracts should not be shipped out to clear spots for said rookies until they are outplayed.
If Urias and Mateo get played into a utility role, that's a good thing. That's good for the team.
How do you define "elite" or "non elite?"
Westburg is a top 80 prospect https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/
He's not top 10 right now, but top 80 to me is pretty elite. I would imagine that he will go even higher in the post season rankings with how he has played lately. I think Ortiz has a chance to crack top 100 lists as well with how he has played in the 2nd half of 2022.
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The bench is going to be phenomenal in a few years when we play lefties.
Henderson, Cowser, Vavra, Stowers, Holliday
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Looks like the only possible route now is a complete Rays collapse and the Orioles running off 12 -14 wins in the last 16. We need to make up 6 games in 16. So if we go 12-4 the rays would have to go 6-10. The Rays schedule is probably a little more difficult than ours so not impossible, but we need to literally play our best ball of the season over these 16.
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Lefty tonight! We shall see!
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Everything Gunnar hits is smoked. That ball had .730 xBA just barely missed a line dive homer 406 ft wow.
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4 earned runs, 4 hits and 2 walks in 2/3 of an inning today.
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9 minutes ago, NashLumber said:
Thanks. My mistake. For the record, we have had 3 references to the game here, but if singling me out is your style, duly noted.
Its ok, you can go ahead and update further on their choke.
Edit: Sorry for being a jerk. My NFL team lost , and obviously the Orioles getting swept potentially has me in a bad mood.
The Core/Keepers
in Orioles Talk
Posted
You are severly discounting a lot of players from that era.
Jones, Markakis, Machado, Wieters, JJ Hardy, Davis, Britton, Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez were all core players to that special 5 year run.
Chris Davis hit 197 in the 5 seasons from 2012-2016
JJ Hardy won three gold golves during that time.
Zack Britton was a shut down reliever for 3 of those 5 years
Chris Tillman was in our rotation for all 5 of those years and was our defacto "Ace" during that time timeout question
Miguel Gonzalez was in our rotation for 4 of those years and very good for three of them
Markakis was only there 2012-2014 but is absolutely a core oriole
Manny Machado was a three time all star and 2 gold gloves during that time all while being one of the youngest and brightest up and coming stars in the game