Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Rtot also has him at -6. UZR says -4.1. Go figure.
Some, but not all, of the difference is that OAA only measures balls that are caught. It doesn’t account for a poor arm or gappers that hit ground but can be either singles vs. doubles (or doubles vs.triples) depending how well they’re played.
What do your eyes say?
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1 minute ago, Philip said:
I echo @Picklesrequest for a rough estimate of what a given draft pick should deliver. However that would probably be way too tedious.
Also, I’m not sure it’s germane.
I'd say it is germane. It certainly is a different question.
If Frobby wants to do it, he can knock himself out. But I bet someone has done that, and we just need to find the study.
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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:
I include myself in that group but I'm not as "loud" as some of the other know-it-alls. lol
A real meeting of the mind.
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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Same old, same old.
Zing!
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
Well, I think in a lot of cases you'll know that certain drafts were good within 5 years of the draft. They won't have reached the numbers I cited, but you can sometimes tell they're gong to get there. For example, we knew the 2010 draft (Manny) would turn out well very quickly. But I think it is harder to confirm that a draft will turn out badly, because sometimes players take a while to develop, especially the ones drafted out of high school.
True. But we're all going to be in here arguing in 3-4 years about Elias' drafting, and nobody is going to have a clue what they're talking about.
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Something I'd like to see, and it probably already exists, are probability charts for pick ranges.
So the average 5-10 pick is worth......WAR
The average 125-150 pick is worth......WAR
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3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
But it's not every conclusion, it's some outliers. Total Zone and DRS mostly agree, and mostly agree with the scouts. It's just that OAA is better. And if your numbers say a good fielder is a bad one you don't just accept either conclusion, you look into why there is a disagreement.
I'm not talking about you, but the numbers are not also used responsibly or within the limits they should be kept.
But that's mostly just baseball message board arguing.
I have no doubt the pros are doing it far better.
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6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
2002 he spent half the year in high A, 2003 he spent half the year in high A. 2003 he spent half the year in AA, 2004 he spent half the year in AA. 2005 he had 449 PA in AAA, 2006 he had 381 PA in AAA. As a very old draftee I probably would have fast-tracked him a little more.
I guess when you have the legendary Chris Burke playing LF in the majors there's no room for a Luke Scott.
In the Astros defense, they were very good then.
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Thanks for the work Frobby. That must have take a lot of time.
This is some real good baseline stuff to talk about a drafts and expectations etc.
The problem- and of course this is not fault of your own- is that it takes so long to gather this information, you have virtual no way to evaluate the people making decisions before it's way too late- for better or worse.
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3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
If Mullins can keep hitting like this then he's a top ten position player in MLB, but I don't think that's a realistic expectation. The biggest thing is Mullins stopped the switch hitting experiment that was messing up his swing.
Yeah, he's going to finish Top 10 in the MVP this year- on a team that's going to lose 100 games. If we were somehow competitive, I believe he could perhaps win it.
This is probably his "career year." That's ok. I bet he plays like an all-star for most of next half decade.
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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:
You put the best number you can on it, accept that there's some uncertainty and there will be outliers, and you improve as the information and the technology lets you.
The issue with that, is if you start with bad numbers- even if they're the "best" you got- every conclusion drawn from them will be wrong.
And we've seen time and time again, people drawing very concrete conclusions, where there is no support for such conclusions.
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2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
To be fair, half the guys who OPS .900 in AA or AAA are repeating the league and much older than the actual prospects. It rarely translates to MLB success. Remember Luis Montanez? In 2008 he hit .335 with 26 homers and a .986 OPS at Bowie, at the age of 26. Most of the real prospects in AA are 22, 23. Montanez' entire MLB career was 500 PAs of a .586 OPS.
Scott was the odd, rare case of a veteran repeating a minor league level who had a productive MLB career.
Was he repeating it? I think it was just a matter of not making his pro debut till he was 24.
But yea, we see 27 years old kill AAA all the time and not translate that to MLB.
I'd forgotten about Montanez. That was a good story.
But yeah, Scott is an exception, and as I said, had a strange but successful career.
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Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
Even if Mullins was putting up a .750 OPS he would still be a very good player when you factor in his defense and speed.
Agreed. Talked about this last week. I don't expect him to continue to hit .320 and OPS .935. Those numbers will come down. But he'll still be a fine player.
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4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Can someone start one of these threads about Keegan Akin and hope to get him going? lol
Apparently all it takes is me defending a guy for years and then finally going, "You know, I don't think he has much of a ML future" to make him go scorching hot.
The home runs are expected. But yesterday, the guy has the gall to make such a fine running catch the announcer initially thought it was Santander, before correcting himself to say Stewart and chuckle in disbelief.
It's almost like he read this thread and decided to shove it up my butt. Good for him.
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3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Statcast says Mullins is +8 in OAA. rWAR (really DRS) says he's -4, but DRS isn't on the same level as OAA. Eventually the Statcast data will be available and integrated into freely-available sites like bb-ref and Fangraphs.
I know we want to quantify things, but putting a bad number on things is worse than putting no number on them.
But we've been down this path before.
I personally think Mullins plays an excellent CF. His only weakness is a below average arm, but his range, reads and jumps, are all excellent.
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But to your point, yeah, he didn't even debut professionally until he was 24. Rutschman will make the bigs before Scott got to A-ball. (And yes, Adley's been slow-rolled.)
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4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
He must have had a late start in college, and then spent all four years there. Didn't make his pro debut until 24. Rutschman played three years of college, then missed the COVID year, and he's still going to have 600+ PAs by the time he gets to the age Scott first appeared in the minors.
Guy was in his age 27 season, and they left him in AAA for 100 games to put up a .900+ OPS. That's after putting up a .900+ OPS in AA the year before.
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On 8/12/2021 at 9:37 AM, DrungoHazewood said:
I think that most of our draft analyses are ham-fisted. Do we grade based in picks vs consensus? Then what of differing strategies like going below-slot to pick better players later? The consensus is attempting to rank players solely on how good they are. If we grade based on who comes up with the most MLB production you're not grading the draft, you're grading a combination of (draft + development + injuries + luck + situation).
I tend to grade by asking if the player picked seemed reasonable on the day of the draft based on the publicly information we have. But we don't even have all of the information to make that meaningful.
Well, I'm interested in Frobby's analysis to come. I'd like to see how he approaches the issue.
Three Run Homers point that it is kind of silly to grade picks as "good" or "busts" when they're 95% irrelevant is well-taken.
You're talking about judging picks at the time they're made, whereas I think Frobby- and myself- are far more interested in judging them in hindsight.
But you make a good point, in doing so you're now judging other things, including what might be for all we know just as important as the actual selection, development.
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8 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
There are only 14 players with an OPS of +.900 this season
And the fact that Mullins is doing it while playing excellent defense in CF, compared to the relatively one-dimensional sluggers of Davis and Scott, should put the excellence of his season in perspective.
Of course, his WAR numbers won't reflect it. BWAR has him as having negative defensive value this year.
Defensive "stats" are so terrific.
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The only way somebody can say this is the worst O's team in history is if they just woke up from a four year nap, because every team iteration of this team going back until 18 is worse than this one.
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5 minutes ago, kidrock said:
Luke Scott had a career .821 OPS. That's really good. Seems like overall health issues really killed him. He played more than 131 games just once (148).
He had a bit of a strange career, including not getting called up until he was almost 27 years old. But all he ever did was hit.
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1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Most posters here would see a .900 OPS hitter as an ideal middle of the order hitter. A surprising fact from last night's game replay was that the O's have only have had 3 seasons w/ a .900 OPS since 2010. A Luke Scott season and 2 Chris Davis seasons. Mullins is on track for the 4th .900 OPS season in 11 years.
I heard that too and was a bit surprised. Cedric's at .936 now. I think he does it.
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11 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:
He is certainly a streaky player. Would be nice if he can go on a little run. Yusniel Diaz has had a blah season in the minors so Stewart will probably be in the 4th outfielder mix again next year.
When Hays and Mullins are both healthy, Stewart has more value to the team than Ryan McKenna. Jahmai Jones could be a darkhorse threat for his roster spot.
I'm in here heaping dirt on the guy, but the book isn't closed on him.
He'll get a chance next year to make the club. He'll probably be battling Diaz, McKenna, Jones for that 25th man roster spot.
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
Am I allowed to be happy that Stewart is heating up? He still has some time to pull his numbers up to respectability.
I guess he wants to make me look like a real jackass. He made a decent little running catch today too.
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.900 OPS hitters
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Yeah, I know the feeling.
I agree with your general scouting report, and am inclined to say he is a net positive in the field, despite the weak arm, which he has compensated better for as the year has progressed to my eye.
Let's put it this way, and demonstrate once again, why I hate these f-ing defensive "stats."
Mullins and Vlad Jr. lead the AL in Offensive WAR with 5.0. They tie for third in Total WAR with 4.7. Both are ranked negative. Both are ranked equally negative.
Is there anybody in their right mind who believes that their defensive contributions should be ranked in the same stratosphere?