ChosenOne21
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Posts posted by ChosenOne21
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Yeah, it's getting to the point where I'm not going to cry if McDermott finishes the year in AAA. I'm not against bringing him up necessarily, but he's clearly got more work to do on control/command if he wants to be a good major league starter long-term.
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18 hours ago, Jammer7 said:
No matter what? What is your criteria for “valuable major leaguer?” Must be pretty high.
I think scouting (and player development) has come a long way in the past 5-10 years and the odds are increasing. There are plenty of valuable players and pitchers available, historically, in the past decade. This is supposed to be a weaker draft, but there will be value there. Most likely, if we are to assume this team has a playoff/World Series window of five years or so, the player they take will be a trade chip.
In Elias’ five drafts, he has picked some very valuable picks after 1-22. No?
I did say "unlikely" before "no matter what." Now that I re-read that though, it's kind of a bizarre sentence so I can see why you interpreted it that way. Of course there's a shot a player taken at 1-22 succeeds.
Elias is certainly above average at drafting, possibly well above average, but the odds are still against him here, as they are for pretty much any individual pick he makes.
I'm not trying to knock Elias here, just stating the fact that the vast majority of players selected in the back of the first round don't turn into solid regulars and so you shouldn't pass up someone you think is more likely to succeed here to draft "for need."
I'm certain someone who will be available at this pick will have an incredible major league career. The odds are against it being whoever we draft though. That's just math.
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29 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
Who have more value?
Player A - 5% chance at a 60 FV, 50% at 40 FV, 45% at 30 FV, 95% healthy
Player B - 33% chance at 60 FV, 33% at 40 FV, 33% at 30 FV, 33% healthy
Player C - 50% chance at 50 FV, 30% at 40, 20% at 30 FV, 95% healthy
This is obviously debatable, and it depends on what you mean by healthy. If 33% healthy means you're on the field 1/3 of the time, I'm not picking that player over A or C. If it means you have a 33% chance of avoiding the IL each year, I'd probably go with player B, though of course it depends what exactly the injury risk is.
I have a slight preference for C over A, and B seems way too likely to get injured/spend too much time injured despite the higher upside. This is slightly confounded by the value difference between a 60 and a 50 being a lot more than between a 50 and a 40.Reasonable people can disagree on this though.
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At 22 the player you pick isn't likely to be a valuable major leaguer no matter what. You've just got to grab whoever you think is most likely to be valuable and hope for the best.
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6 hours ago, LGOrioles said:
Not sure but he has a 124 wRC+ against RHP’s and 76 wRC+ against LHP’s (with a 39.6 K%). He should be playing every game against RHP’s (like tonight) and be shielded somewhat against LHP’s like Gunnar last year, the problem is Mullins has a 14 wRC+ against LHP’s.
I couldn't think of a better time for Cowser to take his lumps against LHPs if Mullins is at a 14 wRC+
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Reports of Hays's demise might have been exaggerated. We'll see how long he can keep this up.
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No way in hell: Holliday, Basallo
Maybe as part of the package for a top starting pitcher with multiple years of control: Mayo
Everyone else is on the table for the right player, though there are a few like DeLeon where I think their value in a trade is going to be much lower than keeping them. -
I've been skeptical of Suarez, but at some point if he keeps it up he becomes the real deal. We're getting closer.
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Did Westburg also throw the home run pitch?
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Just now, dystopia said:
A batter that reached base is not retired.
Even if the pitcher struck him out?
Your definition is totally fair, but this one really sticks in my craw. -
39 minutes ago, SteveA said:
26 batters in a row retired.
Has that ever been done in a single game by the Orioles before?
Depending on your definition of "retired"
https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401227501/orioles-mariners -
El Gato, indeed.
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Hey it's our old pal Zach Pop! I checked his career stats aaaaaaand...he's a replacement level reliever.
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Urias says, "Please sir, I want some more" (playing time)
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G Rod throwing 93, hope he's okay.
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I mean, those insane numbers are the price of top talent starting pitching. While we're certainly capable of it, I don't completely trust nor want to completely rely on our ability to develop top talent starting pitching. Maybe Burnes isn't the guy, but at some point if we want to win the World Series or even keep winning we're going to have to take a huge gamble on a guy like him.
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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:
I don’t think I ever heard the term “a 13th round talent”.
I mean, yeah. Just saying if he was the 364th best player available, he should have been drafted somewhere around there.
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If he was truly the #364 prospect in the 2023 draft, you'd think someone would have taken a chance on him. That's 13th round talent or so.
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6 minutes ago, Rojo13 said:
I don't get why everyone on here is in love with "potential" instead of "results." I remember last year when Means was rehabbing in the minors this board was saying he'd maybe be a bullpen piece. I was thinking, "Do these people not remember 'John Means day'? The guy knows how to pitch and gets results. I trust him WAY more than Grayson.
Sadly Means got hurt and didn't get a chance to pitch in the playoffs.
When the playoffs roll around in 2024, if Suarez still has a 1.57 ERA and .99 WHIP, I'm giving him the damn ball way before I give to a guy with a 3.53 ERA and 1.33 WHIP who has a career 27 ERA In the post-season. Don't misunderstand me, Grayson has a TON of potential but he's reminding me a lot of Kevin Gausman at this point in his career - a guy who repeatedly got our hopes up as being a dominant TOR guy but never was for us.
Suarez has a 1.2 WAR this year in 34 innings. Grayson has a 0.5 in 51 innings.
If we had to pick a top 3 for the playoffs tomorrow, I wouldn't put Grayson as the #3.
Because "potential" tends to be more indicative of future results than a small, recent sample of success.
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We've really needed Suarez to step up, and so far he has. He does this a couple more times, I might be a believer.
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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:
And those last three games were May 25, 27 and 28. We didn’t play on the 30th. So how is that “rotting away on the bench?” He started 3 of 5 games in that stretch. He must rot very easily.
Kyle "Banana" Stowers.
Maybe he can have a career with that team in Savannah after the Orioles waste his prime years
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10 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:
I love Cedric, but he has a 64 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR over the last 365 days. It's time for Colton Cowser to be the everyday CF for this team.
We'll take a hit defensively, but it frees up the COF spots for Kjerstad / Stowers / Mayo / Santander / whoever is hitting. We can be a good but not great defensive team that absolutely mashes.
I have to agree. And I'm not sure it'd be as much of a hit as I originally thought. Cedric is clearly better on defense, but I think Cowser can hold it down until (hopefully) Bradfield Jr. is ready.
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14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I don't think they can.
They'll get pulled for ineffectiveness way before they get to 130 pitches.
Yes, obviously. I'm referring to the capabilities of their arms, not what their managers will let them do.
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I'm pretty sure most modern starting pitchers could throw 130 86-88 MPH fastballs no problem. The incentives are heavily against it though, and I don't know how you put this particular genie back in the bottle.
Anthony Santander 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted · Edited by ChosenOne21
Unless Santander goes on an absolute tear the rest of the season, I don't think he turns down a qualifying offer. And even then, it'd be real easy to look at FA deals for 30-ish year old outfielders who are good regulars but not stars and realize there's a good chance he won't beat a QO in guaranteed money, especially with a QO attached.
As much as I'd like the pick, I don't want to gamble 20-30M and another year of stunted opportunity for our young outfielders on Santander turning down a QO.