ChosenOne21
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Posts posted by ChosenOne21
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All I have to say after watching those is man, Cowser's routes are something else. I don't think that guy can take a straight line to a ball.
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24 minutes ago, interloper said:
Hyde has been slowwwwly leaving him in there more against lefty relievers late in games. We saw it last night and maybe a couple other times this season. I mean when your PH options are McKenna, Mateo, Urias, and the backup catcher, you might as well leave O'Hearn in there to see if he runs into one.
This is interesting to me because I remember last year I looked at O'Hearn's numbers vs. LHP and found that he actually hit LH starters fine for his career but was basically helpless against LH relievers. Sample sizes were of course small, but not totally miniscule.
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23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Kjerstad wouldn't even be enough for Miller at this point. That dude is a stud and is team controlled for 6 years. It would probably take Basallo or Mayo at this point.
For what it's worth, BaseballTradeValues says that Miller for Kjerstad is basically a fair trade. (Kjerstad 27.5M surplus value, Miller 25.6M).
Doesn't mean the A's would do that deal, although they're kidding themselves if they think they're getting Basallo (58.6M) or Mayo (43.7M) for Miller. -
1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:
That they can't give a save opportunity to someone other than Kimbrel when he's clearly exhausted is insane to me. Tate might have gotten the job done yesterday.
Agreed. We should probably give like 25% of the save opportunities to someone else. Tate, or anyone else, might have gotten the job done yesterday, but unfortunately all we know for sure is Kimbrel couldn't.
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56 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
High expectations. So you don’t trust the NL all star closer from last year and the AL all star set up man? That’s tough. Even Bautista blew saves last year.
I guess Elias needs to get on the phone and trade Basallo for Mason Miller.
Yeah, I don't get it either. Last year when a bunch of posters were talking about how awful Cano was and I pointed out that he blew only one more save than Bautista and it was suddenly crickets. I think a lot of people just don't understand how thin the pitching talent pool is and that even great relievers are going to blow a decent handful of saves and have bad days.
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4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
You guys can talk about all the roster shuffling you want. Means coming back, Bradish coming back and what that means for the bullpen with Irvin and Wells going back to the arm barn.
That's nice, but IMO, it doesn't change the fact that we don't have two guys like the A's showed us this past weekend, Miller and Erceg. Irvin and Wells don't give us that, they don't push anyone like that towards the 8th and 9th innings.
IMO, that's what you need in today's game, high velocity guys with extreme K rates. We had that last year with Bautista but Elias failed to find anything similar to that in the offseason. Kimbrel is a decent placeholder but he's on the downswing of his career and it shows.
Wells may not be high velocity with extreme K rate, but he should be a good reliever regardless. Not elite, but very good.
Yeah, Kimbrel is on the downswing, but I think it's more that we're riding him like a rented mule and he's getting too old for that. -
Dang, Irvin pitched like he wants to keep his job once Bradish/Means/Wells come back. I would love it if this became a very hard decision and it looks like it might be.
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We all knew Kimbrel would blow a save eventually. Still, he's been great this year.
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21 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:
A college player is always a safer pick than a high school player, but often the HS players turn out to be the future elite MVP types. High school higher risk, higher reward. It's where you find your Gunnar Henderson's, Bobby Witts, Jackson Hollidays, Manny Machado, etc. A couple years ago I looked at the All star game roster and 70% were either international (very young) or drafted out of HS
High school players are also less likely to make the majors than college players. Picking Abrams or Witt would also increase the chances your 1:1 pick is a bust, or at least less than you hoped for.
When I say Adley wasn't a "safe" pick, I meant that the Orioles didn't sacrifice much, if any, ceiling to raise the floor. I remember the vast majority of pundits saying that Adley was the most likely player in the draft to be an excellent baseball player. A few said they thought Witt or Abrams had a higher ceiling, but they also were less likely to reach it than Adley. And even they were like, "slightly higher ceiling, much lower floor, and C is more valuable than SS."
Even if more all-star level players come out of high school, in that particular draft Adley was a special player who had a super high floor and a super high ceiling. The fact that high school players are more likely in general to be all-stars shouldn't blind one to the fact that there was an incredibly special college talent available at 1:1.Bottom line is the idea that the O's should have picked anyone other than Adley in that draft was a small minority opinion on draft day, and the fact that Witt and maybe Abrams ended up hitting their ceilings doesn't change the fact that Adley was the obvious choice with the information available at the time, and it's not like it didn't work out awesome for us. I would say Adley is definitely more likely to be a HOF than Abrams and probably Witt, too.
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12 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:
There probably was no "right" choice and absolutely no "absolutely right choice"
I was on record wanting to choose Abrahms and my logic was simple, a 1:1 is a chance to pick a HOF type talent
A college catcher was a safe pick and Adley is having a nice career but he is clearly not a MVP/HOF type player.
On draft day, you thought CJ Abrams was a potential HOF talent and Adley definitely wasn't?
I'm pretty sure the vast majority of pundits thought Adley was the best pick in the class, and while it's possible they were wrong, Adley wasn't a "safe" pick.
Honestly, I think Adley probably has a better chance than Abrams to be a MVP/HOF. Not only is the bar lower for catchers in the HOF, the only time Abrams has put up HOF numbers over a season is in a 95 PA sample size this year. I'm not saying Abrams isn't a great player who I wouldn't love to have, but let's pump the brakes a little.
BTW, the average HOF catcher has 53.6 career WAR. If Adley puts up a 6.4 WAR season this year, about 50% of catchers with similar WAR totals through their age 26 seasons end up in the HOF. -
Witt had hit tool questions on draft day, and Abrams was much less of a sure thing than Adley. Based on information known at the time, we absolutely made the right choice with Adley.
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1 hour ago, emmett16 said:
1:2 is good. Elite is a player like Arraez who is 1+:1.
I think I used elite a little too loosely. Still, not a ton of hitters do better than 1:2 over a full season.
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16 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:
I'm not sure what is considered respectable in a walk to strikeout ratio though.
I think 1:2 is elite and 1:3 is roughly average.
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I mean, this is possible, but it's incredibly likely Kremer is better than at least one of those guys
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But our offense needs to take a step forward in order for us to be contenders!
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I'd say if he has 3-4 more good starts and our rotation continues to struggle, he's going to find himself in Baltimore
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11 hours ago, Frobby said:
He has a JJ Hardy vibe. Not exactly the same player, but same kind of guy.
Yeah, I can see it. Hardy has a much better glove at a much more premium position, and I imagine Westburg will walk more than Hardy did, but I'd expect their offensive lines to look pretty similar other than that.
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Now that Pablo Reyes at bat was awful
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Come on, the Cowser at bat was fine, Kutter just threw some great pitches. The strike he took was in a spot it would have been hard to do damage on. He scorched one foul and swung at a tough splitter.
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Just now, Jagwar said:
Watch it again. I just don't think Mullins gets to the ball
It would have been a running catch, might have had to dive. That play is nearly impossible for a second baseman though and Santander wasn't anywhere close
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Just now, ArtVanDelay said:
He didn’t do anything wrong. It’s a nearly impossible play. Should’ve been called off by an outfielder.
The throw was pretty awful
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Should have been Cedric's play
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I have to admit, I like him more than anyone should probably like a 10th round draft pick. Real good chance Elias got a steal here.
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36 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I don’t think anyone’s said this. But I also don’t think anyone should be super confident about his chances of getting through the season without further issue.
No one has said this, but it feels like half the board is acting like it's a true statement.
Of course, he might not pitch this year, but it's probably like 67% likely he will and 33% he won't.
Dean Kremer 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Kremer would be the second or third best SP on a lot of teams. I'll bet every playoff contender would have room for him in their rotation. I don't get why anyone looks at him and thinks "5th starter." You'd have to be living in Magical Christmasland to have four starters better than Kremer.