ChosenOne21
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Posts posted by ChosenOne21
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3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I really don't think that it is.
More and more pitchers are going down with TJ, especially when we're in an age where it's max effort guys that are throwing 100 mph every time out. As we're seeing with Means, it takes more than a year to come back from it.
They are injury risks, to pretend that they're not would be intentionally obtuse. But say if you have a guy like Skenes and Holliday come up on the same day and you've got them for the first six years of their career, the odds favorite Skenes as the guy who is going to miss significant time with an injury. If Holliday has a significant injury, it's probably going to be an ACL or an Achilles and he can make it back into the lineup faster, most likely.
It's about maximizing value for the amount of time you have the player and if a guy has TJ for a good chunk of the time you have him, well, that's not maximizing value.
You do need good pitchers to win, you are correct about that. However, making sure they're all healthy in order to make a run is almost getting lucky...like, having a guy like Grayson, Burnes, Bradish together for a year without one going down is having all the stars aligned in your favor and we're already holding our breath about Bradish. Let's not mention Felix and how our bullpen looks without him.
All I'm saying is if the "new normal" is that a pitcher will undergo TJ while under club control, it doesn't make sense to knock a pitcher for being likely to undergo TJ.
Does the focus on max-effort throwing create enough new top-of-the-line pitchers to offset or surpass the years lost to TJ? I dunno.
But if it doesn't, I'd argue that this makes pitchers more valuable because now there are fewer years of top pitching to fill demand.
Maybe the shotgun approach works better than targeting top talent. The Orioles have done the shotgun approach decently well. But it's incredibly unlikely to get someone like Skenes that way.
Granted, I'm assuming the game is 50% hitting/fielding and 50% pitching, but it more or less is, isn't it? And if it is, then I don't think it's necessarily a bad idea to trade a top position player talent for a top pitching talent.
If you think Jackson Holliday is more talented as a position player than Paul Skenes is as a pitcher, that's fine. You can make that case. They look pretty similar to me, we're rich in position player talent, and we need starting pitching.
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I always thought he was Alex Wells 2.0, but it sounds like his pitches and velocity are better. Which is good, because Wells was never close to being a MLB starting pitcher.
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It's fine to prefer Holliday over Skenes, but this "no thanks, pitchers get hurt" idea is getting to be a bit much.
If all good pitchers get hurt and we need good pitchers to win, we need good pitchers who will get hurt. I don't know where we're going to find these mythical unicorn pitchers who aren't an injury risk.
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That's really tough. Holliday is the safer bet, but Skenes would fill a huge area of need. Assuming medicals all check out, if I'm the Orioles I'd probably trade Holliday for Skenes, but that says at least as much about the Orioles' needs as it does the quality of the players.
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I'm guessing Snell REALLY wanted west coast and the teams out there didn't have room for another huge long-term contract.
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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:
I’d rather have Hancock over Kjerstad. Lawler over Cowser. I don’t want to criticize Elias on a Monday morning 6 weeks after MLK day, but Carter Young and Willems couldn’t be the guys they were targeting. Also, Rhodes is kinda meh in a Zach Watson way.
Elias did kill that 2019 draft. Keep in mind Bradish was in that 2019 class and we most certainly targeted him in the Bundy trade. Maverick Handley likely will end up getting a cup of coffee at some point in the MLB too.
Would you rather have Hancock over Kjerstad + Mayo?
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Mullins developed more power than you'd have expected. Maybe Bradfield can do the same, but I'm not betting on it.
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10 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Just to circle back on how valuable the draft pick could be if Holliday begins the season on the roster and wins the ROY. The pick only may be ranked as a certain value in the trade simulator, but it’s much more valuable to us versus another org.
Whatever potential money/value we lose by not gaining the extra partial service year of Holliday, is value/money gained in that I trust our FO to use the pick/slot amount to nab us a contributor on our 2027-2033 ball clubs, or as a trade asset in between then.
In the range of that pick we could draft a HS pitcher/HS SS that isn’t top tier but doesn’t want to go to NCAA, or an NCAA corner guy 1B/3B/LF/RF that doesn’t have superstar potential. Like a Dylan Beavers. Or a NCAA back of rotation SP/potential top bullpen pitcher. Like the next Dylan McDermott.
We’d have those guys for 6+ service years and their value over those years could offset whatever the value is of Holliday under control in arb in 2030.
Let’s say Holliday is worth $60 million in value in 2030. Well a McDermott or Beavers type prospect could very well be right around that $60 million in value in over their six year career total.
Then Long/Short of it, let the kid eat from OD on. Get that ROY award and draft pick.
$60 million in one player for one season is much more valuable than $60 million in one player over six seasons.
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7 hours ago, wildcard said:
The way I see it:
The games get more competitive for the rest of ST with major leaguers playing more and MLB starters stretching out.
Holliday vs Mayo: I don't see Elias putting two rookies in the infield to begin the season. It would almost be a disappointment if Holliday was not of the opening day roster but Mayo is proving his point that he can hit and play a decent 3B. Westburg can play 2B or 3B and Urias is on the team along with Mateo.
Both players are probably on the team by June if not sooner and a trade or injuries will have to happen to make room.
Irvin vs Albert Suarez for the 5th starter in April: Burnes, GRod, Kremer and Wells are in. The last spot in up for grabs. Irvin will make the team in the rotation or as the long man in the pen. (Means returns in May)
Last spots in the pen: Kimbrel, Cano, Tate, Coulombe, Baumann, Perez, and Irvin if he is not in the rotation are in.
The battle: Webb, Akin, Albert Suarez and Andrew Suarez . Webb has a 1M contract but he will be claimed if DFA'd so the O's are really not of the hook for his salary.
There is not room for Stowers and Norby though they are deserving.
Cowser is in; Kjerstad needs a big surge to push someone out.
There are 39 on the 40 man roster and Nevin, Maton and McKenna most likely will be DFA'd because they are out of options. That is 4 spots open. Plenty of room for Holliday or Mayo, Albert and/or Andrew Suarez.
We will know by opening day.
What do you think?
The more I think about it, the more likely I think it is Holliday and Mayo start in AAA. Infield is probably Mountcastle/O'Hearn at 1B, Westburg at 2B, Gunnar at SS, and Urias at 3B to start the year. Holliday's stat line looks good, but he's also striking out a ton especially against lefties. Personally, I'd start him at 2B and send him down if he struggles, but I don't think the O's are planning to do that. I think Mayo could be up quick if we trade Urias, or if Urias/Mountcastle/O'Hearn struggles.
I would be shocked if the Orioles make Suarez the 5th starter over Irvin out of the gate. If Irvin struggles to start the year and Suarez looks good, maybe they make the switch.
I think Webb and Akin are both in the pen to start the year and Tate isn't. Tate didn't pitch at all last year and hasn't looked especially great in spring training. I think he's first man up but starts in AAA. Both Webb and Akin are out of options, and Akin has looked pretty good so far.
I agree that Cowser is more likely to make the team than Kjerstad, but who gets their playing time cut out of Hays, Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle and O'Hearn? Wouldn't shock me if they keep both players in AAA until someone gets hurt or is ineffective.
I agree that Nevin, Maton, and McKenna are likely DFA.
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1 hour ago, ScGO's said:
Colby Rasmus on there?
Colby Rasmus I hope you...
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I guess the outfielder is pretty highly thought of. Maybe he's more like Braylin Tavera?
Still not impressed.
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6 minutes ago, bpilktree said:
Thorpe, Iriate, Zavala, and major leaguer Steve Wilson.
Thorpe is like 85th ranked-ish. Iriarte was back of their top-10 or so. Wilson's stat line looks a lot like Jacob Webb's.
I think the Orioles equivalent is something like Ortiz, Povich, Webb, Thomas Sosa
I guess they really wanted pitching we didn't have, because that return isn't that amazing.
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Two pretty good pitching prospects, an average-ish 29 year old reliever, and a 19-year-old international lottery ticket outfielder. Doesn't seem worlds better than what we likely offered.
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Why not start him in the majors and send him down if he struggles? If he does well, the team benefits from his performance and you have a shot at the extra pick. If he struggles, you get the extra year of control.
I think you'd have to be around Shohei Otani levels of talent for your seventh season to have more surplus value than a draft pick + 3 extra weeks of play.
If you think the guy has a good shot at RoY or runner-up, start the season with him.
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1 hour ago, dystopia said:
That's the beauty of it, you don't. Time for the nerds to take a nap.
You've said it's real and strategic but not quantifiable. That's practically word salad. Doesn't seem like I'm the one who needs a nap.
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I don't see how chemistry is remotely quantifiable. I'm sure when the team is winning everyone's happy and gets along better and when they're losing players are unhappy. I think people have cause and effect exactly backwards when they say chemistry helps a team win.
And even if chemistry leads to better on field performance how do you begin to tease that out? If a player hits 20 home runs one year, how many of those were because of "chemistry?" Maybe some of them were, but how do you ever figure that out?
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13 minutes ago, Birds08 said:
Anyone know what is actually happening here? If trying to have him ready to actually pitch, what timeline is?
All Elias has said is by the All-Star Break. My guess is late May/early June at best.
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15 hours ago, EdwinRip said:
Most of the players hitting well will be in AAA when the season starts.
This seems to happen most years. My guess is the guys who are on the bubble of getting a roster spot play their hearts out to try to win a spot, while the guys who are guaranteed a spot are taking it a little bit easier, working on stuff, etc.
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I'm not sure why so many people think this is a crappy bullpen. Sure, it probably won't be as good as last year, but that's a long way from crappy.
Kimbrel is a die-roll, I'll give you that.
Cano should be good.
Coulombe should be good.
Perez has a strong chance to be good. He walks too many, but he gives up weak contact.
Tate, Baumann, and Akin all have question marks but have all looked good so far.
I don't know what you guys want from Webb. He had a 3.27 ERA / 2.80 FIP in half a season for us last year. He walks a lot of guys, but he doesn't give up many hits. He didn't give up any home runs after he came over. His WHIP was 1.182, which is pretty good for a reliever. He doesn't exactly scream "closer" but he seems like a fine middle reliever.
You could do worse for depth than Baker and Vespi
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I would rather have Webb in the pen than Teheran
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Assuming there are no issues with his performance and they send him down anyway, I hate it. It's different if he looks a little overmatched, or needs more time to learn 2B.
We're trying to contend, so we need the best players out there. If that's Holliday, then that's Holliday. He's also got to be on the short list for ROY as things are.
If he struggles, we can send him down and get the extra year of service time.
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6 hours ago, forphase1 said:
Starting outfield - Cowser in center, Stowers in left, Kjerstad in right. What's the problem?
Defense?
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14 minutes ago, SteveA said:
Yes, those 4 plus Harold Baines, Delmon Young, and Tim Beckham.
The two that only wore an Oriole uniform in spring training are Jackson Holliday and Bob Horner. At the end of his career Horner was a non-roster invitee to spring training and didn't make the team.
The one whose son played (and still plays) for the Orioles is Phil Nevin.
I said Beckham. The one I missed is Surhoff. He's the one I should have known. Didn't know Baines went first overall.
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1 hour ago, SteveA said:
In the bottom of the first inning, the 2023 #1 overall pick in the MLB draft will take the mound, throwing to his catcher who is the 2021 #1 overall pick. The first two batters they face will be the 2022 #1 overall pick and the 2019 #1 overall pick.
Trivia question: Can you name the 7 #1 overall picks who have played for the Orioles? And then the 2 who have only appeared for the Orioles in spring training games but never in the regular season? And then the 1 whose was almost traded to the Orioles once and whose son has in fact played for the Orioles.
Ben McDonald
Adley Rutschman
Tim Beckham
Kris Benson?
EDIT: Jackson Holliday is one of the spring training ones. Don't know who the other is.
Double EDIT: I looked up the other three. One I should have known, one I didn't know was a #1 draft pick. Also had no idea the guy whose son has played for us was ever almost traded to us.
Holliday or Skenes. Who would you rather have?
in Orioles Talk
Posted · Edited by ChosenOne21
My point is that if every pitcher or most pitchers aren't producing value for 1-1.5 years of club control, and you still need the same amount of innings pitched, you need more pitchers than you used to which is going to make pitchers, especially the top ones, more valuable. Demand definitely increases as injuries increase, but whether or not throwing max-effort increases the supply of top pitchers enough to compensate is a question mark.
I guess you could argue that each individual pitcher is filling less of his team's pitching needs than a 2B is filling his team's position player needs. And it might be the more stable route to try to somewhat make up for pitcher injuries by maxing out on position player talent. The Orioles are likely doing exactly this to great success! But if you want to max out the pitching side, you're going to need more players to do that than you would position players. Which, I'm saying, implies a top pitcher has more value than a top position player, assuming no significant differences in talent.