LookinUp

Agree. I'm just concerned because his production seems to only fluctuate up every now and then. He was good in Frederick (1/2 season) and the AFL, but has otherwise not been a highly productive hitting prospect. I'm not suggesting they're similar prospects, but McKenna's production reminds me of Xavier Avery's. Some flashes (combined with great athleticism) got people excited, but ultimately he just wasn't the guy we hoped.

I think we've found our culprit. FB%. Means 2019 Keuchel 2018 Keuchel 2015 1.04 GB/FB 2.20 GB/FB 3.14 GB/FB 42.2 FB% 24.4 FB% 19.6 FB% 13.8 LD% 22.0 LD% 18.7 LD% 10.9 HR/FB% 8.8 HR/FB% 12.0 HR/FB% 42.3 Pull% 44.9 Pull% 36.0 Pull% 16.2 Soft% 22.4 Soft% 25.2 Soft% 24.3 Hard% 28.1 Hard% 21.3 Hard%

I'll add some batted ball stats next. Maybe that'll shed some light. I wonder how FIP is affected by SSS.

A few stats for comparison: Means 2019 Keuchel 2018 Keuchel 2015 7.68 K/9 6.73 K/9 8.38 K/9 2.33 BB/9 2.55 BB/9 1.98 BB/9 1.16 HR/9 .79 HR/9 .66 HR/9 .234 BABIP .300 BABIP .269 BABIP 44.0 GB% 53.7 GB% 61.7 GB% 2.33 ERA 3.74 ERA 2.48 ERA 4.17 FIP 3.69 FIP 2.91 FIP 4.7 xFIP 3.84 xFIP 2.75 xFIP Means just turned 26 years old. Keuchel was 30 last year and 27 in 2015, when he won 20 games. He won 12 the year prior, with less impressive numbers. However, after 2013, that FIP is always good. It got as high as 3.87 in 2016.

Interesting. McKenna has been pretty bad this year. His k and bb rates are essentially the same as Bannon's, but the production isn't close so far.

Shrug. It's funny to me how short term injuries can affect such lists so often. It's like the entire scouting book on a guy gets thrown out the window after a brief, most likely insignificant, injury results in low playing time. Did they not rate him at #56 because he had talent? Is that talent suddenly gone? Of course not. Compare that to the OH list. It's not even comparable. Look at a guy like Hunter Harvey. I'm not at all bullish on him, but whatever. I love the arm, but haven't seen health + production. Tony/Luke still ranked him relatively highly because they're giving a scout's perspective. They of course account for risk, but they don't forget the talent while doing so. That's two perfect examples of how MLB Pipeline isn't up to par, IMO.

I'd characterize it as highly encouraging. We're not talking about Robbie Alomar here, but you need guys that you can plug in and be good players at the ML level. He's starting to look like that.

You're better off hearing from others who definitely know more about Pipeline than I do, but I've been very underwhelmed by them from what I've seen. I don't think their knowledge is particularly specific or deep, so they're more a reflection of conventional wisdom than particularly insightful. For example, I doubt they'd ever be on a guy like Kremer or Britton (back in the day) the way the OH gets on them early. That's my impression, at least. I only see 4 in that list, and that's counting Rodriguez. Am I missing someone? Assuming health and no promotion, it's probably fair to assume that Diaz, Hall, Rodriguez, Mountcastle and our #1 overall pick will be top 100 guys. It's a long season though. If they did a list today, it's possible they'd drop Diaz off of it just because he's been injured and hasn't produced in about 10 months. But who knows, maybe a guy like Knight or Peralta would jump up on their list if they continue to dominate.

Dang. If this kid keeps improving and stays healthy, he could be a really good one.

I love that they promoted him. He’s a little old and performing. Push him and see how he handles it.

Just because you mentioned him, I decided to look up Kent's minor league stats. Let's just say they're atypical. He wasn't particularly young for his levels and his OPS wasn't great. In fact, he produced better for most of his ML career than he did in the minors. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kent--001jef Needless to say, we'd be very pleased if Bannon turned into Jeff Kent. I was actually surprised to see that he's not in the HoF. 55 career WAR is pretty good. 20th all time for 2B.

I was at the game the other day and he was really the only Bowie bat that made a good impression. He lined a double down the left field line his first at bat. Later he lined a double down the right field line. He also walked and generally looked like nothing they threw at him was particularly troubling. I hate to note that it was night and day compared to McKenna. Even when McKenna got his single, it was after he looked over matched swinging through two pretty average fastballs. For some reason the pitcher decided to speed his bat up, hung a slurvy type of pitch and McKenna served it to CF for a single. A confident hitter would have done damage with that pitch. He also flew out to the warning track later in the game and grounded meekly to SS the other two times. Everything he did at the plate looked like a struggle.

Harvey got hit hard today. Gave up 3 HRs, I believe. Not cheap ones either.

Bedard/Arrieta are two great examples. Tillman (who may not belong in this conversation), Bundy and Gausman are others. We've had some arm talent in this organization before. We've just been miserable at getting them from the point that someone like Hall is at now to become an actual dominating starter.

The best (and really, I mean worst) is when people refer to MLB Pipeline's rankings. I'm not sure I've ever seen a nugget from them that you somehow missed. Obviously, you have more tentacles into the organization, and more frequent eyes on a lot of these guys, so that helps. Still, you'd expect a publication that so many cite to offer better information, IMO.

You guys are routinely better than the industry on these lists.

In a vacuum, I think you're right, we should be "pleased" if Hall turns out like Bedard. It's hard to have great expectations of a kid playing in Frederick. However, in the grand scheme of things, we need someone, and likely multiple guys, to be better than Bedard if our organization wants to take a big step up in competitiveness. We're going against guys like Price, Snell, Sale and Tanaka every year in this division. You can hope to piece it together like Buck was able to do for a while, but that's a really hard way to go. It would be awesome if at least one of these guys turns into a horse for this team.

To put it another way, the O’s will need Mike Mussina types to be perennial contenders. Bedard was never on that level. He was closer to a flash in the pan. We need a horse.

Bedard got us Jones and Tillman, so I can see the case. I’m hoping from much more production from Hall than Bedard ever provided though.

This thread took a nice turn. We’v Been waiting since Messina for one of these guys to pan out. Hopefully this is the guy. Would be beautiful if Gray Rod also ends up as a 1a to Hall’s 1.

Makes you wonder how a guy slips through the cracks like that. Maybe he wasn't highly thought of, but was just the best of the worst, so to speak. I mean, anyone (within reason) can get a cup of coffee, but this guy has 101 ML games under his belt and is being placed on another ML roster as we speak. His career WAR is -1.3. That's just incredible.

The only reasons I can imagine for ownership to not spend here are: 1. They don't think it's worth it. I think that would be ludicrous given what Elias has stated and his ability to make a data case for this spending being more efficient than free agency, for example. Regardless, this is where we stood under PA. 2. They simply can't get the talent at close to the right price. This is where we supposedly stand right now. Need to build the program. 3. They're being tight everywhere. The reasons for that are they're preparing to sell the team after PA passes or they're just cutting off their noses to spite their faces, which brings us back to #1. Given all that's been said publicly, I really doubt the suns "value" the international market anything like PA did. If they don't spend more/most of the allotment over time, I'd wager it's because they're preparing to sell the team.

Per fangraphs, his average FB is 92. That's better, but not a weapon, per se. I'm not expert on what the data means, but his change is what sticks out. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16269&position=P

This is pretty striking. I'm sure the WAR breakdown would be pretty staggering, though a lot of players on that list (e.g., Victor Robles) are still quite young. You really can see the talent pool the O's weren't even giving themselves a chance to tap. That's so demoralizing, or at least it was. Interestingly, the O's now have several of these guys. Just eyeballing it, I see Alberto, Nunez, Ynoa, Yefry R., Castro, Villar and Sucre. I'm guessing I missed (or don't know) 1-2 others too.

Koji Uehara's was about as good as I've seen in an O's uniform. Even better in a Sox uniform, unfortunately.