wildbillhiccup
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Posts posted by wildbillhiccup
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On 2/19/2024 at 7:36 PM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
I was discussing with a friend just the other day about how underrated Cake was as a band. I recently went through their early albums and came up with 11 absolutely bangers (see below) over a short eight year span. I have a feeling they'll get labeled as a one hit wonder, but they were far from it. I know they weren't exactly breaking new musical ground with each song, but they sure do put me in a good mood when I listen to them.
1. The Distance
2. Short Skirt/Long Jacket
3. Love You Madly
4. I WIll Survive (Cover)
5. Ruby Sees All
6. Long Time
7. Never There
8. Rock and Roll Lifestyle
9. Satan is My Motor
10 Sheep Go to Heaven
11. Let Me Go-
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Great new song with a lazy Sunday morning kind of vibe.
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My excitment level for Mayo and Basillo is starting to approach the same level that I had for Rutschman and Henderson. It's nuts to think that our farm system is so loaded that it's possible to experience that same feeling only a few years apart.
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If Julio Teheran sees a single MLB start for this team then we're in serious trouble. Even when he's had success in the past it's mostly been with smoke and mirrors.
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16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Witt Jr had a 722 OPS his rookie season.
Witt also didn't have a father/mentor/coach with these credentials teaching him.
He received MVP votes 8 times (finishing as high as second), was a Silver Slugger winner 4 times and an All-Star 7 times. Matt won the NL batting title in 2007, with a . 340 BA. He also led the league in doubles, and RBI.
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16 hours ago, Frobby said:
Tatis had more than 1200 MiL PA under his belt, Vlad 1075. Witt was closer to Holliday (744 PA) but he also was 18 months older and had been through the Alt site experience in the Covid year. Bichette had 1445 PA and was a year older than Holliday. So, they were all either more more experienced (Tatis and Vlad), older (Witt) or both (Bichette). And while Tatis (.969 OPS) and Bichette (.930) did excel with the bat in their rookie campaigns, Vlad was good not great (.772) and Witt was just so-so (.722). I'll be thrilled if Holliday debuts like Tatis and Bichette did, but I'll be perfectly satisfied if he starts off more like Witt. I'm more focused on what the end product will look like than the 2024 version, so long as the 2024 version is holding his own at age 20.
Fair points, but I still think it's fair to set our expectations a bit higher for sons of former major leaguers. At least for the ones who are high end prospects like Holliday. You can't teach talent, but we already know that's not an issue with him. So it's going to boil down to adjusting to MLB pitcher and execution. And I don't think it's unreasonable to think that someone like Holliday, who's had a former MLB player (and good hitter) as his mentor and coach, might better equipped to make a smooth transition than a player who hasn't had those advantages.
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27 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I think it needs to be understood that Holliday is a 20-year old kid with 671 professional at bats under his belt, 255 of which were in AA or higher. The fact that he was a 1-1 pick, and now the no. 1 ranked prospect, speaks to what he’s expected to become when he’s at full maturity, not what he’s likely to do this year.
Norby and Westburg were in their second year of college when they were Holliday’s age. Urias was playing in Mexico. They were all 3+ years away from playing in the majors. Whether Holliday could outhit them right now has little to do with his prospect status.
I’m not meaning to put limits on what Holliday might do this year, but I do think people need to manage expectations. If he exceeds them, great.
Norby, Westburg, and Urias didn't grow up as the son of a former MLBer either. You have to think that at least a small part of his success can be atributed to all of the advantages that he had in terms of his development at a young age (i.e., developmentally he's probably more advanced than a typical 20 year old). And if you look at all of the other recent sons of MLBers who've made it to the majors (Vlad Jr, Bichette, Tatis, Witt, Jr. etc.) they all pretty much hit right out of the gate.
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59 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
How much does he struggle early? Will lefties give him issues?
I’ll say he hits around 275..350-360 OBP…410ish slugging…I’ll also predict that he has an adjustment period early (which will help keep his overall numbers down) and people will freak out about it and say how big of a mistake it was to not get him more AAA at bats.
You mean like they did with Gunnar last season?
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1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:
This thread isn't intended to be a debate on whether Holliday will or should make the team, but a hypothetical, where he does. What sort of stats would you suspect we'd see from the rookie with, say, 600 PA? A range would be reasonable certainly.
I'm hoping for a Bo Bichette-like 2022 season with a slightly higher OBP and slightly less SBs.
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20 minutes ago, waroriole said:
I really hesitated on posting this because the topic had finally died, but I think he deserves the humiliation.
Well it's certainly starting to "drone" on a bit
It's also pretty hysterical that after his big interview on Fox where Bauer claimed he regretted how he handled the media he immediately had his lawer send a threatening letter to...a member of a the media. Bauer's like a less sincere modern day version of Eddie Haskell.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Well, he would allow either himself or one of them to be pushed into the pen, which is needed.
That's a fair point, but I'd rather see them trade for a bullpen arm then sign a Lorenzen type starter (in a perfect world).
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2 minutes ago, interloper said:
Regarding #3, I argue that one more injury to a protected starter puts us in the extremely untenable position of having to start Bruce Zimmermann.
We had good depth but we are using almost all of that depth to cover two injuries. A third really could screw us.
IMO there's no real debate that we are in serious need of another decent SP.
I just think it's more of a cross that bridge when we get to it situation to me since none of the FA SPs (other than Snell or Monty) really move the needle. I'd rather them invest or trade for another bullpen arm.
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To answer the question Wells should be our 5th starter, which means our bullpen will then be down two solid arms (Hall and Wells). We REALLY need to find a way to acquire another bullpen arm via trade because the remaining FA options are
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This isn't a simple yes or no question.
1. If we can sign Monty or Snell to a relatively short term contract (i.e., 4 years or fewer) we should consider it.
2. If we can trade for a viable youngish starter without giving up Mayo or Basallo we should consider it.
3. If our only option is to sign one of the other remaining FA starters then we should probably just pass because I'm not sure any of them are any better than our internal options.
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1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:
I've seen mention of that and it seemed like whatever talks were had were very provisional. Eury was fantastic last year but I'm guessing if this was a serious trade proposal it would have been Eury as a centerpiece, + a couple other good pieces for Witt.
Talks were apparently very preliminary, but everything I've read points to it basically being a one for one swap. Keep in mind this was before Witt signed an extension. I think it's very realistic to think the Marlins would ask for Henderson and that's why it's not even worth discussing Eury as a viable trade target. Apparently they wanted Basallo in a Luzardo trade and that was also a no go (on our end).
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3 hours ago, justD said:
Let’s trade for Eury Pérez
Well the Royals apaprently discussed a Witt for Perez swap earlier in the off season. Are you willing to give up Gunnar for him? I'm guessing probably not.
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Man some of you guys are brutal. God forbid the guy actually have a (genuine) personality. KB's one of the best in the game.
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28 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:
This offseason is unique. The typically big spending teams have either already spent, are reloading/rebuilding/in transition, or are too pressed against the luxury tax threshold to justify these contracts. Bellinger, Snell and Montgomery all would have almost certainly received better deals in prior offseasons.
Statcast is valuable but it's not gospel, either. Ryan Mountcastle is a metrics-behemoth but it doesn't necessarily translate. And in general, Bellinger graded quite well on their metrics:
For comparison, here's Alex Bregman. Do you expect him to fair poorly in free agency?
And here's Altuve, who at 33 just got a 5/$125m deal:
Not good comps IMO. Bregman and Altuve (who's a future HOFer) have both shown the ability to consistently out perform their underlying numbers and have demonstrated sustained success over the course of their careers. Bellinger has three solid MLB seasons out of seven so he's been bad more than he's been good. And going into the 2023 season he was lucky someone even gave him a starting job considering how awful he was in 2020, 2021, and 2022. I think it's also very telling about how skeptical teams were about Bellinger's ability to repeat last season considering that he's still a relatively young player and a plus defender at two positions and he still couldn't land anything better than what is basically three glorified one year contracts.
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2 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:
https://theathletic.com/5298286/2024/02/25/cody-bellinger-cubs-scott-boras/
Not being reported that way. Expectations were considerably higher entering the offseason.
Good article exploring the consequences of Boras’ players overplaying their hands in this market. Rosenthal indicates it may pressure his other clients to take the short term deals too, since teams have seen him blink first. I’ll go one step further and hope it influences his young pre-arb Os clients to give more consideration to long-term offers.
Bellinger's one season removed from hitting .217 for a full season and most of the underlying baseball metrics suggest last season's success is unsustainable. In particular his average exit velocity, barrell %, and hard hit % were all ice cold blue on his statcast page last season. Despite the Boras sales pitch, yes he was lucky to get that deal.
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1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:
I think the popular “might as well get the TJ” idea is a little overoptimistic about TJ recovery. Yes most MLB level guys come back and can perform well, but there’s also plenty of guys who were never quite the same, whether because of the TJ Itself or other complications along the way. Look at Dylan Bundy. Or look at how we talk about John Means 2 years after his surgery.
I get your point, but I'm not sure that Dylan Bundy s the best example to make the case. Bundy hadn't established himself at the MLB level before the surgery so we have no idea if his struggles were surgery-related or if he was just a prospect who never lived up the hype. And to be honest he's at least been a serviceable MLB starter for most of his career. His career ERA isn't that much higher than Kyle Gibson's.
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I think the Orioles were initially being proactive in trying to upgrade their rotation, but based on the timing of the Bradish/Means injury news it's probably a bit naive to think that it didn't factor in and give Elias more of a sense of urgency to make the move. So I'm splitting my vote between A and B.
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15 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:
I wanted Bassitt last offseason, and they have some reasonable comps. I think the major differences are Bassitt (RHP) was 33 last offseason and Montgomery (LHP) is 30 now. I'd absolutely be looking for 5+ years if I were Montgomery.
If he wants Nola security (7/$172m) then yes, there's no argument to be made here. I haven't heard that; most projections I've seen are around 5/$100m-$125m. I think that's still within reason, given Bassitt secured 3/$63m at 33 years old.
I actually misspoke. He wants "more" than the Nola contract.
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6 hours ago, ThisIsBirdland said:
I think a reliable 30 year old lefty who's averaged 175 innings and a 121 ERA+ for the last three seasons, with solid playoff and AL East experience, actually makes sense as a pretty worthy investment.
What's disappointing to me is we've periodically heard about the O's checking in on these high priced guys for the last two off-seasons, just in case their price for whatever reason might fall, and here we are almost certainly looking at that scenario right now. I'm sure the lack of movement by the O's is tied to any number of reasons, whether it's that they don't like him too much, the ownership transition situation, or they're just never going to invest multiple years in FA SPs.
The problem is Boras wants an Aaron Nola type contract for Montgomery, which is insanity. I understand your frustrating and disappointment, but it's hard to blame the Orioles when you're talking about a Boras client.
6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:He’s a good sign if you aren’t signing him for 5+ years at 30+M a year.
I would take sign him for 3-4 years or something like 2/60 with an opt out after year one 1 but he’s not a break the bank, sign long term type guy.
I can't wrap my head around why anyone would give Montgomery any more than the deal that Chris Bassitt signed last season + inflation. Other than the fact that Boras is bat sh*t crazy.
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5 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:
The Yankees have always been the thorn on the O's side. The O's need to spend on Montgomery to keep up.
Not if it's a long term contract. Montgomery is a good player, but not a great one. With Boras as his agent he's more than likely going to get someone to overpay and overcommit to him. The only players the Orioles should even be considering giving long term contracts to are the young core players on their own team.
Julio Teheran Flyer
in Orioles Talk
Posted
IDK he feels more like The General than Geico or Liberty Mutual.