wildbillhiccup
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Posts posted by wildbillhiccup
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48 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Stowers is deep depth. We still have offseason decisions to make about our entire MLB OF and DH. That’s 4 spots. No need to give up depth now. Especially when he has zippy trade value.
Deep depth? Does that just mean you need an air tank and not a snorkel to get to him?
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Just now, sportsfan8703 said:
If we could only do one of these deals which one would you do?
JD Martinez for 1/12
Brandon Woodruff for 2/25
Neither. We don't need another DH only player and Woodruff is broken and will never be the player he was (see Cory Kluber).
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10 hours ago, Just Regular said:
A year away from FA, Astros extend Altuve for 2025-2029, 5/125.
Bregman and Altuve both playing 2024 at ~$30M, in what is now a walk year for Bregman alone.
It's nice to see that the Astros were able to "drum" up enough money to extend him.
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It seems like a lot of folks in this thread are thinking with their hearts and not their heads. Sure Hays has been a solid player for the last few years, but let's dial back the nostalgia a bit. He's not even in the same stratosphere as players like Markaksis and A.Jones in terms of performance and Orioles' folklore and we let both of those players walk. And "what if our OF prospects fail?" isn't a good enough reason. The chances of at least one of them not being able to at least match Hays production (not a high bar) seem pretty low. And even if they all flame out we can always dip into the FA market and sign a better OF than Hays in 2026. For context, Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert will both be FAs in 2026.
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5 minutes ago, oriole said:If Mateo can play a decent CF then he could get a good amount of playing time considering he hits lefties better than Mullins does.
If Mateo gets a good amount of playing time this season at any positon then something has gone horribly wrong for this team.
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1 hour ago, Keygans said:
The more days that pass, the more I’d love JD Martinez in our lineup… of course we’d need to create room
So you want bring on a DH when we basically already have two semi DHs on the roster, in Santander and Kjerstad, and a catcher who we'll need to DH on occasion to keep his bat in the lineup? How exactly is that going to work out?
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1 hour ago, One eyed Bird said:
maybe it was to be King John Angelos Stadium, dude just trying to milk every penny he can before riding off into the sunset with Daddy's Oriole money, good riddance to the whole scum bag clam of Angelos's
How dare you make that suggestion on National Lame Duck Day! Wait, that's actually a pretty good call.
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I believe Geico originated in Maryland. Hump Day Park at Camden Yards? With 1/2 price tickets for all Wednesday home games?
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Just now, interloper said:
Norby AND Stowers for Harvey? Man I dunno about that. I know he stayed healthy last year but he still presents an awful lot of risk to give up two of your top offensive depth guys.
You might be able to package Norby for a much more impactful relief weapon at the deadline.
All that said, if Harvey can be had for, like, Stowers straight up, I'd be interested in that.
I was thinking either/or (not both) when I posted the trade idea. I agree that both would be too much.
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It's not exactly surprising or earth shattering news, but the Dodgers officially resigned Kershaw.
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38 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:
Their trade value is high enough to net a solid RP piece, but they have to find a team that wants that deal.
Right now even the likes of the Angels, Pirates and Royals are focused on adding. The only firm sellers are the A’s, Nats and White Sox, and the Rockies are just kind of unpredictable and clueless.
There’s some options on those 3 firm seller teams but not sure one matches up.
Maybe a team that is in “buy” mode that sees Norby/Stowers as immediate lineup upgrades, and they otherwise have a strong pen that they’re willing to deal from? Holderman from PIT? I like him but not sure he’s worth Norby even with the many years of control.
Just feels like the opportunities will be way more available at the trade deadline.
I wonder if a Hunter Harvey reunion might make sense? He's been very solid out of the bullpen for the last two seasons. And I imagine the Nats would definitely see Norby and Stowers as upgrades. I've never even heard of their projected starters in LF and CF.
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40 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:
I don't think Hays has done anything to lose his job, or to have it taken away in any significant way. I agree there will be a competition in Spring Training that might tell us a lot about what we have in Cowser at a higher level, but we need to see it.
How many of us who feel like we're pretty good at what we do (maybe not the best in the world, but do a good job overall).....and would be okay if our boss came to us and said, "you know, you're pretty good at what you do, and you actually perform at a wins above replacement level, but we think this new kid "might" be better, so we're going to give him some of your work....even though, you're pretty good at what you do. Just sayin'.....
It's not about doing anything to lose his job or knock against Hays. It's about commiting to a younger player who has the potential to be better. It's also about Cowser being much more likely to be a part of the future of the team than Hays.
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6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
General consensus is “we know who a hitter is between 500-1000 PAs.” Maybe you need less now with all the analytics in today’s game.
I’d like to see him approach 300-350 PAs in 2024.
He’s at 77 PAs now. Another 53 to lose rookie eligibility. He’d have to really flop for that be a consideration for 2024.
Agreed, I just set the bench mark lower because I realize it's a bit of a juggling game managing a contending team and developing players at the MLB level. The key to be is they need to "regular" ABs so you give him a chance to get comfortable and find his rhythmn.
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
Assume we have roughly 2000 PA to allocate among our outfielders (ignoring whatever time those players get at 1B or DH). Last year we had: Hays 558 (566), Mullins 436 (455), Santander 370 (656), Hicks 209 (236), McKenna 127 (139), Cowser 77 (77), O’Hearn 72 (368), Vavra 46 (56), Frazier 31 (455), Stowers 31 (33), Kjerstad 8 (33). (PA as an OF first, total PA in parentheses.)
So how would you like to see them split this year? We know injuries and performance will alter any plan. Barring injuries, Mullins’ PA go way up. Hicks and Frazier are gone.
I’d like to start with a rough plan of Hays 475, Mullins 550, Santander 350, Cowser 375, Kjerstad 250. Both Santander and Kjerstad will see a good bit of time at DH too, and maybe a smattering of 1B. These numbers will vary depending on how players perform and their health.
I personally think you're a little high on Hays (for me), but it would really depend on how Cowser performs. I also think there's another layer to the conversation and that's how each player reaches those bench marks. If Elias believes in Cowser then I'd like to see him give the kid a vote of confidence and give him an extended look as the starting left fielder at the beginning of the season. Or at an absolute minimum make it an open competion between Hays and Cowser going into Spring Training. And if Cowser wins the job and is still struggling after 100 - 150 regular ABs then Elias can re-evaluate the Cowser / Hays dynamic.
I'd also like to see more ABs for Kjerstad, but it's hard to see him eclipsing 250 with players like Santander and Rutschman who are going to eat into the available DH at bats.
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5 minutes ago, interloper said:
I just had a peruse of the remaining free agent relievers and there is basically no one of interest left unless you like 40 year old Jesse Chavez.
It's definitely slim pickings. To me Stanek and Hudson are the only two players left who are somewhat intriguing. It's a shame we didn't make the Burnes trade earlier in the off season. Quite a few solid RPs (non closers) have signed very reasonable contracts over the last few months.
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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:
But he has to play. He needs consistent MAJOR LEAGUE at bats. When I say consistent, I’m not saying he has to play 6-7 games a week right now but he should be starting 3-4 games a week to start the season and then you just see what happens.
100%. I don't see how you can possibly judge him or write him off until you give him regular PT and at least 100 - 150 ABs this season. If he's still struggling at that point and it's effecting the team's ability to contend then reevaluate the Cowser / Hays dymanic at that point.
That said, I have zero faith that the team will take that approach with him. That's part fo the reason I started this thread. If Elias doesn't still believe in Cowser then he should probably just trade him now because not playing him is only going to hinder his development as a player even more.
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9 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:
The reason why you consider a trade for a guy like Clase now is that he’s not going to be available at the deadline if traded and we’re not in on it. Plus, we rely on our bullpen so much. A Clase trade would also take some stress off of Bautista in the future. It might be good to get in on Clase now while there doesn’t seem like much of a market versus the unknown of the deadline.
When you trade for a closer you're paying an inflated value for his saves. This team doesn't need to overpay for saves, it just need reliable bullpen arm. There are plenty of comparable RPs to Clase who aren't closers who would more than likely be considerably cheaper to acquire via trade. Clase is also a player who is trending in the wrong direction with his velocity. I wouldn't be surprised if that's part of the reason the Guardians have quitely put him on the market. They probably realize that trading him now before those regressions are reflected in his overall numbers is the smart play. It would also explain why they resigned Scott Barlow who has closing experience.
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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Hays was a legit all star. Then got bumped to all start start. Finished top 3 in LF GG. Leads off against LH SP.
Enjoy this year with Hays. Now next year, is when we can talk about moving because of FA.
Yes, Austin Hays was a good player for three months last season. That's all that making that All-Star Team means and it's silly to try represent those three months as an overall view of his worth as a player.
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11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
It sounds like you really like Cowser. I'm fine with that though we haven't seen much from his limited Big League time to get excited about.
But if we were to say replace Hays with Cowser, I have two questions for you?
1) What do you think we can get for Hays in any kind of trade?
2) What happens if we get rid of Hays and Cowser struggles for an extended period of time or is just not very good? I ask because I think it's reasonable to expect that not all of our prospects will make it.
1) Little to nothing.
2) I'm fine with keeping Hays (as a contingency plan). I just want Cowser to get a longer look to start the season.
Cowser is still an unknown to me. I want to see more of him to see he can carry over his MiLB success before I write him off. Until we have a larger MLB sample size I still think he has considerably more upside than Hays offensively.
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9 minutes ago, dystopia said:
In other words, good.
Kevin Kiermaier had a 104 OPS+ last season. The Blue Jays, who don't have a high end OF propsect waiting in the wings like we do only gave him 370 ABs last season. Most of the projection sites are estimating that Austin Hays will get 500+ ABs this season. Do you think the Blue Jays would give Kiermaier 500+ ABs if the situations were reversed?
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1 hour ago, Jagwar said:
Big thin limb? You're the one who started a thread suggesting that Hays is "really anything more than a slightly more reliable OF version of Jorge Mateo".
The title was more of an attention getter. The primary purpose of the thread was to start a discussion about why (I think) it makes sense to give Cowser a longer look and play him over Hays.
To your thin limb point, unless the other poster is Austin Hay's primary care physician then trying to use him playing through undisclosed injuries as an excuse for his struggles throughout his entire career seems a bit ridiculous to me.
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1 hour ago, dystopia said:
His 114 OPS+ and 112 wRC+ last year would disagree with that assessment.
Hays' career OPS+ is 107 which puts him slightly above the league average.
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1 hour ago, ThisIsBirdland said:
No reason to expect this at all but this would be fascinating.
This is an interesting read on Clase and his drop in velocity last season.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-concatenated-case-of-emmanuel-clase/
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36 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:
I don’t think I’d give up what the Guardians are certainly asking for to get Clase.
I wouldn't either, but they have several other intriguing bullpen arms who might be cheaper. It really depends on what they're looking for. We know money is an issue for them, but other than that I honestly don't know where the Guardians are looking to improve. Maybe in RF or at SS if they don't fully believe in either of their young players? I imagine they might have some interest in Mullins as an upgrade over Straw in CF as well.
Santander + la ow end prospect might get you Stephan
Mullins + a high prospect might get you Clase
Hays Interested in Extension
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Agreed and the only thing I'll add is that Markakis and Jones were much better and younger players when we intiially extended them (25 and 26). Hays will be turning 29 this summer.