emmett16
-
Posts
5858 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
3
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by emmett16
-
-
My first ever seats at OPACY are being removed! Man, I loved those seats. I've been thinking they should do this for a while now. Has to be a positive signal to all the agents out there that the O's are ready to do business with pitchers.
-
2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
If he starts doing more damage in the zone he will also start to get walked more because pitchers are going to be more careful.
I think this is his ticket. If does some more damage he’s going to get some freebies. If he can get better on the close pitchers and get walk totals to 60-70 we will have a heck of a player on our hands. That’s just 1 more walk per week in the grand scheme of things.
-
18 hours ago, Frobby said:
I’m pretty bullish. He seems like someone who will learn with experience. He already drew more walks this season (41) than Adam Jones ever did (his high was 39, as a 30-year old). Even modest improvements in this area will go a long way. He doesn’t have to be Nick Markakis when it comes to plate discipline (and he won’t be).
I agree. I think he makes modest incremental improvements each year. His confident approach, how he handles success, and how he handles failure really impress me. Makes me think he will not be satisfied until he gets every drop of of ability out of himself. He will be a lot of fun to watch mature over the next 3-4 years.
-
JD Martinez looks like a best case scenario comp. Lots of Ks not a lot of BBs. OBP is held up by his avg. & not a solid fielder. Martinez increased his power output as he matured. If Mountcastle limits Ks a bit, increases walks a bit, and hits 35+ HR I think he can flirt with .850- .900 OPS through his peak years.
-
4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
All the money for that has been put aside already.
Thanks. I did not realize that was the case.
-
5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
When you started your business, you didn’t walk into an atm machine like owning a sports franchise is. You didn’t walk into a company already worth 1-2 billion dollars.
To act as if they can’t win 75 games and do the things needed to win long term is absurd. To think they can’t win while getting the right software is wrong. To think you can’t win games and field a better product because you are building a facility in DR is wrong. You are just making factually wrong statements. This isn’t opinion. This is always happening in the sport and teams are able to do it while winning.
Elias walked into a company that had a -6.5mm net profit the year prior to his hire and 100+mm lawsuit that will need to be paid up sometime in the near future. Then the pandemic hit.... Wouldn't call that an ATM.
I have ZERO desire to watch a 75 win team. Would rather keep up with my fantasy team and continue to watch slow sustained improvement from the lower levels trickle up to the MLB team.
I also believe they will spend when the time comes. That will be my last straw if they don't. I've hung on for a lifetime so far, but I'm not an eternal optimist. If they do not take advantage of the position they put themselves in over the next few years, my time as an Orioles fan will be up. But as stated before, the new regime has been a breath of fresh air. If the wool is being pulled over my eyes, I'll gladly admit I was fooled and move on.
That's all for now. Time to go surfing
-
1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
This is all great but it literally has nothing to do with what is being discussed.
Let me ask you a very simple question…why do the Orioles need to lose on purpose, going on 4 straight years, to accomplish anything in numbers 1-5 of your post?
Do we need to lose 110 games for software buildouts? Or to build a Dominican facility? Is losing on purpose a pre-requisite to doing these things? Where in the CBA does it state that?
You continue to say lose on purpose. They are not going out and trying to lose. They are prioritizing building parts of the organization that had not been previously built.
When I built my company from the ground up I prioritized very different things than I do now. I had to build out an office, had to build out computer systems, had to build out a website, had to hire dozens of people. I didn't go out and hire a professional PR firm in year one, didn't go out and hire 2-3 high-end architects to supplement my team, didn't have an HR department, didn't buy a fleet of vehicles, didn't bring out a social media team, etc. There is no way I could be doing the things I am doing now in years 1-5. Impossible. It's about resources, investments in future, man hours, buy-in, and quantifying metrics to make better decisions. Sure, I could have done those things, but I'd be bankrupt and would not have had sustained success. Same exact thing on a very smaller scale. It blows my mind that you can't wrap your head around these concepts.
-
1
-
-
11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
I’m not contradicting myself at all.
There is nothing the organization is gaining long term, outside of a few early picks, that will be a result of losing on purpose.
If you disagree with that, tell me where I’m incorrect.
People have brought up a variety of points that are completely valid that you don't agree with so you type as many words are possible and condescend people to try and win an argument.
It has been stated by management and pointed out by posters that:
1. Priority #1 was a complete overhaul of the organization. They completely gutted personnel and began hiring dozens of new employees
2. Implementing strategies that start from the ground floor and work it's way up to MLB level.
3. Building out software and baseball tech throughout all of the minor league facilities and ST facilities.
4. Building a Baseball Academy in the Dominican Republic. Hiring personnel to build, implement, and recruit in-roads in international communities.
5. Building out a state-of-the-art analytics system, hiring people who can implement & translate those analytics in laymen's terms to the players.
The orioles were an expansion team in 2018 due to years of neglect and being poorly managed. I've followed the orioles for 30 years now. It's a breath of fresh air that someone came in, stated their goals clearly and concisely, and has followed through verbatim. It was said in plain English that the MLB team would not be the priority for a few years and it would be a long methodical process. For the first time in as long as I can remember there are positive articles coming out by non-orioles media about the progress being made, players in our system, and the bright future on the horizon. Everything we hear from players, team reps, and coaches is that everyone is on the same page, with same goals, and with a clear focus on what each individual needs to do to make the collective better. It is a long slow process. MLB team is not winning yet, but for the first time in my lifetime the Orioles aren't a complete embarassment of an organization and have a very bright future. Hopefully you have enough patience to make it through these last couple rebuilding years and can enjoy the fruits of the labor. But, of course, any success they have after the rebuild will absolutely have nothing to do with the rebuild
-
1
-
-
5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
I’m being rude because I’m pointing out that you could be a speech writer for him? Lol
You are searching for reason to justify this team losing on purpose. Your reasons are wrong. None of that is reason to lose on purpose. You do not have to lose on purpose for this amount of time to accomplish the goal of building a long term contender.
Nothing you hope to accomplish long term is going to happen because this team tanked for at least 4 years.
If they become a successful organization, people will point to the rebuild as to why..and that will all be fools for doing so. This team is doing nothing by losing on purpose, outside of a few high picks (which may or may not pan out), that gives them an advantage over anyone else. Many teams are doing the same thing and they are doing it while winning.
And yes, the Os had a long ways to go to build up analytics and international scouting, etc…but they don’t need to lose games on purpose to accomplish those things. They can win games AND do those much needed things. This isn’t an either/or situation and yet you and many others are seemingly treating it as such.
So....after the rebuild if they become a successful organization, it will not be due to the rebuild? Got it.
You're obviously very knowledgeable and I enjoy your posts and very much appreciate the time you put into most of them, but I hope you realize that you contradict yourself seemingly every day with the sheer amount of quick reactionary comments that you write.
-
1. Adley & Grayson come up early, perform at a high level and leave us savoring for more in 2023.
2. One 'major' surprise from the SP field that doesn't include (Grayson, Hall, Bradish)
3. Moutcastle taking the next step towards an .850 OPSer while playing a better 1b than 2021.
4. Stowers makes his debut and solidifies his positions as starting corner OF in 2023 with a solid showing.
5. Trade some redundancy at ML level to bolster the farm (Mancini & Santander) w/o the ML team missing a beat, perhaps improving via Stowers promotion and Mountcastle breakout.
6. Continued improvement on the farm from the top guys at the higher levels and "prospects to keep an eye out'' at the lower level.
7. An international invasion to Low A & high A from our DSL players.
If all 7 happen, I will be a happy happy man & might renew my season tickets after a 3 year absence..... If top 4 happy I will consider the 2023 a success.
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Ok
BTw, not sure how “real” Greinke is anymore.
Going out on a slight limb, but pretty sure he'd be better than anything else we will throw out there this year. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd say chances are pretty solid he will outperform the Orioles 2-7 Starting Pitchers.
-
22 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
He is a fit for the Os. He’s a SS and we have no SS and we have plenty of money to spend. And we need real players. Doesn’t mean we would sign him. Of course I don’t believe that.
Your question was, who is a fit..your question wasn’t, who will they sign.
Greinke is a fit for the the O's. He's a SP and we have no SP and we have plenty of money to spend. And we need real players. Doesn't mean we would sign him. Of course I don't believe that.
-
1
-
-
12 hours ago, justD said:
Quite possibly the best post of 2021. Murray Christmas!
-
On 12/21/2021 at 5:55 PM, Frobby said:
No team is using its starters anywhere close to 70% of the time. Oakland was the highest at 64%. Tampa (who I think we’d agree is a good team) was at 52%. Of course, that’s distorted by their frequent use of “openers.” But still, most good teams today are around 60/40. So, call it 1.5 times more important.
My back of the napkin math was a little off. I tied to bookend best and worse with 60-70% and went a little too high and not low enough (rays). I thought SP would be about 1.75x more important at but see I’m high on that, too. How’d you find SP vs. RP innings totals? I looked at a few good teams & bad teams on bbref and jotted down totals. Couldn’t find how to categorize by starting v relieving.
-
I’m going to go with Keegan Akin. I think he can go from pretty awful to serviceable.
-
1
-
-
I can’t imagine hitting now vs. these guys out there. The velocity and the stuff is unreal. Hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in professional sports.
-
On good teams the SP’s are going to cover 800-900 ip or about 60-70% of all innings. Out of ~1400 total innings the bullpen is going to need to cover 500-600. I’d say the SP is just about twice as important as the BP, but there is a lot is W’s to be had in those 500-600 innings of work.
-
I remember someone posted on here about avg. age of MLB debut by year. I need to try to find the data but I remember being shocked/surprise that the avg. age of MLB debut has been just about the same for many many decades.
-
I don’t think anyone has mentioned the Mancini situation. He lost 2020 and came back a shell of himself in 2021. That impacted the offense significantly. It also ruined one of Elias’ better potential trade chips. The entire situation was a blow to their offensive production & the overall team assets. How often does your #1 draft pick and most productive offensive player go down with non-baseball related injuries in the same year?
-
3 hours ago, Frobby said:
What do we consider the end of the rebuild? I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over. I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023. So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.) Is the rebuild over? When did it end? Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?
I'll consider the rebuild over when our first J2 signee sticks in the MLB lineup and there are international candidates right behind him ready to take his place.
-
1
-
-
What does a 2.24 WHIP & 5.1 BB/9 look like vs. MLB hitters? I'm going to pump the brakes on expecting much from Hall. Granted, I haven't seen him pitch (in person) yet and a Randy Johnson comp is exciting, but it seems like a lot will need to go right for him to have success. He's going to be fantastic or absolutely awful.
-
Great research! Seems about right. Out pitchers walk a ton of people and our batters don’t walk. Can see why this has been a major focus in the minors both on offense and pitching.
-
It bothers me that the day before the lockout the major news running, on various sports sites, was MLB's use of two balls. The PR and branding of MLB is beyond terrible. It's almost comical at this point.
-
47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I'll try to find it, I should have saved it but I was on the pooper.
But as SG pointed out, he gave up 38 dingers last year.
Maybe MLB used the 'super ball' instead of the 'regular ball' for the terrible teams to drive some HR action to meaningless games.
Left field at OPACY going through a big change
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I was thinking the same thing. That part of the game will be gone and it made for a few awesome highlights a year.