emmett16
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Posts posted by emmett16
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On good teams the SP’s are going to cover 800-900 ip or about 60-70% of all innings. Out of ~1400 total innings the bullpen is going to need to cover 500-600. I’d say the SP is just about twice as important as the BP, but there is a lot is W’s to be had in those 500-600 innings of work.
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I remember someone posted on here about avg. age of MLB debut by year. I need to try to find the data but I remember being shocked/surprise that the avg. age of MLB debut has been just about the same for many many decades.
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I don’t think anyone has mentioned the Mancini situation. He lost 2020 and came back a shell of himself in 2021. That impacted the offense significantly. It also ruined one of Elias’ better potential trade chips. The entire situation was a blow to their offensive production & the overall team assets. How often does your #1 draft pick and most productive offensive player go down with non-baseball related injuries in the same year?
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3 hours ago, Frobby said:
What do we consider the end of the rebuild? I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over. I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023. So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.) Is the rebuild over? When did it end? Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?
I'll consider the rebuild over when our first J2 signee sticks in the MLB lineup and there are international candidates right behind him ready to take his place.
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What does a 2.24 WHIP & 5.1 BB/9 look like vs. MLB hitters? I'm going to pump the brakes on expecting much from Hall. Granted, I haven't seen him pitch (in person) yet and a Randy Johnson comp is exciting, but it seems like a lot will need to go right for him to have success. He's going to be fantastic or absolutely awful.
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Great research! Seems about right. Out pitchers walk a ton of people and our batters don’t walk. Can see why this has been a major focus in the minors both on offense and pitching.
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It bothers me that the day before the lockout the major news running, on various sports sites, was MLB's use of two balls. The PR and branding of MLB is beyond terrible. It's almost comical at this point.
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47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I'll try to find it, I should have saved it but I was on the pooper.
But as SG pointed out, he gave up 38 dingers last year.
Maybe MLB used the 'super ball' instead of the 'regular ball' for the terrible teams to drive some HR action to meaningless games.
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
When Elias took over were you expecting 110 loses in 2021?
I was expecting unwatchable baseball for 3-4 years. Expected to see something worth watching in year 5.
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I always saw 2023+ as when things would start to change and that the team would spend money. I don’t think they spend much money next year either. Elias was signed just over 3 years ago (nov. 16 2018), and one of those years being the crazy Covid year. Chris Davis contract was supposed to be done (not including deferments, but the bulk) by 2023. He has one decent J2 under his belt and some international players will start to hit low A this year. I give Elias 5 years to turn the organization around and I believe that is more or less the goal for him as well. By year 5 (Nov 16 2023) our first wave of international players will be on the doorstep in AA & AAA, Adley & G Rod will have 1+ years of service time & experience, and the supporting cast (including the 1-1) will be MLB ready as well. At that point, we will finally be close to being on an equal playing field as the rest of MLB. I imagine that is when we will have an exciting team and Elias will be making a few key FA signings. I feel as if they have been honest to us, more or less, about what they are trying to do. If the wool is being pulled out before our eyes and the 5 year plan didn’t work (we were “deceived”), I think I might need to find another team to pull for or (more or less what I do now) just pull for players on my fantasy team, but I’m not gonna get upset about them not spending $$ this off season or next.
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On a serious note, I imagine he was brought in as competition to light a fire under Urias, Mateo & Gutierrez. Will be Surprised if he’s on the team come July.
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One of my favorite shirts is a silhouette of Odor punching Bautista in the face. Can’t wait to rock it at the yard.
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15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Great timing on a move like this.
Glasnow gonna get paid….from his law suit.
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The lockout goes into effect today at 11:59pm and there is not one news story on any major news outlet about the labor negotiations. The general public:
1. Doesn’t even know about the impending lock out
2. could care less if there is a season next year or not
sad state of affairs for the game we love.
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2 minutes ago, waroriole said:
The 2020 season is clearly an outlier, and the smallest sample size. He was good in 2018, 2019, and 2021.
Matz had a 4.72 ERA on 7/15 of 2021 then proceeded to pitch:
4 games vs. BAL
2 games vs. MIN
2 games vs. DET
1 game vs. TEX
1 game vs. NYM
1 game vs. SEA
1 game vs. CLE
1 game vs. NYY
1 game vs. BOS
He pitched against the Yankees 2 times last year, Boston 3 times, and Tampa Once. He was hidden against strong RH lineups and the better teams in general. Not a guy I would target to pitch in the AL East against the better competition.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
It’s not difficult for this team to put together an exciting, developing team for 75M or less.
There are plenty of guys out there that you could get for pennies on the dollar, free agents that you could sign, trades that you could make and put this team in way better position. They still may struggle to be 500 but that’s ok. You can be exciting and still only win 75ish games. The young guys still need to get experience, learn to win, etc..there will be growing pains with that and that will hurt the win total early.
But when You have elite young talent, wasting their early years because of greed is stupid on every level.
The Orioles have One (1) SP that is a solid major league contributor. They need at least five(5) more SPs, a SS, a 2b, & a 3B. Not to mention they need BP help.
The Orioles payroll is somewhere around 40MM right now. If they spend ~25-30MM on FA signings (or trade for players with a higher salary) that gets them about 3-4 wins @ ~8MM per win.
I don't see how this team can approach 75 wins next year.
Perhaps IF 3-4 players come up from the minors this year and show that they CAN be solid contributors and CAN fill 3 to 4 of the 6 to 8 massive holes, then spending 25-35mm next year might be solid strategy. Especially considering that in 2023 there should be 3-4 additional promotions from the minor league level.
Spending cash this year does not seem like the prudent move.
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Stephen Matz was the straw that broke the camel's back? Did not see that coming.
Managements plan should be to plan a winning run around player X & player Y's service time? Seems like a poor long term strategy.
I fail to see how this team could be so exciting in 2022, even with the addition of 2-3 solid FA signings. This team is historically terrible and has 6-8 massive holes that need to be filled. Grayson and Adley are more than likely to come to the majors and struggle. If you are expecting them to dominate day 1, then you are setting yourself up for more disappointment than missing out on Stephan Matz.
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Pinto and Hernandez for me. Pinto had a great year and Tony is high on him. Hernandez looks like high school ARod. For me after top ten it’s all about ceiling talent.
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That swing is a thing of beauty. Smooth, effortless & powerful. I’m officially on the Maikol bandwagon.
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Is it possible Elias is doing Harvey a solid by letting him go early so that he can land on his feet and try to take advantage of the next opportunity?
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The fact that one of these guys is going to be the 8th ranked prospect in our system is pretty dang amazing. We've come a long way.
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40 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I never understood why anyone would want to "buy the arms" when they're extremely expensive and will most likely break down at some point.
I'd rather "grow the arms" like Tampa does or the Astros have done as @Can_of_corn has illustrated. And I'd rather "grow the bats," too. You weirdos make it sound like it's some stupid exclusive thing, like you can't grow pitching if you're going to grow hitting. Or you can't grow hitting if you decide to focus on arms.
Wake up, you can do whatever you want.
ASTROS MODEL! OMMGGG
No, RAYS MODEL ARRRRRRRGGGGGHHHH
GROW THE ARMS BUY THE BATS!!!!
ASTROOOOOOSSSS MODEELLLLLLLL WE MUST DO IT LIKE THEY DID BECAUSE ELIAAAAAASSSSS
Maybe Elias is going to make smart moves wherever he can in order to build the best franchise possible and not be beholden to any one stupid f'ing model. Maybe. Just maybe.
Of course you can do whatever you want. The last three drafts have been overwhelmingly hitter heavy which creates speculation on a message board full of dudes following the worst team in baseball.
4 hours ago, emmett16 said:Perhaps. But you OP points out that 60% of the SP from 2018 Astros were acquired from other teams. You also pointed out that Astros tried to develop their own pitching and failed, thus separating the strategies employed by the Orioles currently. So it doesn't seem they are 'slavishly following a certain model'. What Elias' master plan is we can only guess at and watch play out.
BTW bourbon or beer this evening?
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55 minutes ago, waroriole said:
I don’t see any of those guys taking a 1 year deal this offseason but if they did it would be to win a WS. I think the only incentive we can offer is to overpay in years and dollars. Plus we don’t exactly play in a pitchers park. You can’t really build up your value here on a 1 year deal.
But you could make more money in 1 year than your colleagues. And if you are successful you are going to get more money the following year.
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7 minutes ago, waroriole said:
Who would you use as an example from this year’s class?
I'm terrible at these types of things. But I'd target Greinke, Gray, Stroman, and Syndergaard on one year deals. As I said before they'd need to target mercenary style players and as a casual fan I have no way of learning that info. I do know if highest annual value is on table(which would help players union in future negotiations), the union would put pressure on pitcher to take that deal.
I don't think they could afford/lure players like Scherzer, Ray, or Kershaw. And I imagine Kevin Gausman will never come back to this organization unless his life depended on it.
Developing hitters
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I can’t imagine hitting now vs. these guys out there. The velocity and the stuff is unreal. Hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in professional sports.