TheWall
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Posts posted by TheWall
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13 hours ago, Frobby said:
I’m with you here. Mayo struck out in 34.5% of his PA at Bowie last year, then dropped it to 24.8% this year. Hopefully we can get something similar from Fabian next year. But it couid be difficult, based on Fabian’s track record. He’s two years older than Mayo was in his first stint at Bowie.
100%. I don't think Fabian is anything close to Mayo as a prospect and I don't expect that same drop in K rate, but he doesn't need to do as much to see the field with his glove.
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48 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’m just saying, the promotion won’t happen until the K rate comes down, by a lot. I don’t know if or when that will happen. I’m not saying it won’t or can’t happen, but it could be awhile. Zach Watson reached Bowie in 2021 but was still there in 2023 and eventually was released. He had a .652 OPS at Bowie and 30.8% K rate.
I'm not arguing that the K rate doesn't need to come down in order for him to be promoted or successful. I just think its hilarious that people make claims like "this guy will never get above AA" in a season where he's already gone up a level. He obviously needs to adjust and work on things in the offseason - the hit tool was always the question mark. Maybe he doesn't. Maybe Jud Fabian is Zach Watson. Maybe Jackson Holliday is Jurickson Profar. I hope not for both.
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9 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:
Despite it's size, it is, perhaps, noteworthy. Similarly, against the AL West we are 14-10. We've split with the Rangers, are 1-2 against Houston, 2-2 against the Angels, 4-2 against Seattle, 4-1 against Oakland so far. What do those NL teams and the Rangers, Astros, and Angels have in common? The best pitching we've faced. If we can manage to 2-1 the Angels and 2-1 the Astros in their remaining series, both in September, then, for me, the NL stat is less meaningful because our record against those better NL teams is only due to the single series we have with them, giving us no chance to balance out the stat as we do when we see the AL teams at least twice.
Not disputing our overall record at all. As someone earlier in the discussion said, you hope to go .500 against the good teams and beat up on the sub .500 teams. We've done that. And I grant that other than "feeling" that we don't do well against good NL teams, it's likely not that meaningful, particularly if we do well against .500+ teams like the the rest of the way. Makes you confident that given the chance the O's would balance those out too.
If Felix doesn't give up a Grand Slam against Houston we're 2-1 against them. That's how small sample sizes work and we hit fine in that series. We have easily the 2nd best record in the Majors against teams above .500 and if your cherry picked stats are noteworthy than every team except for Atlanta is in trouble.
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4 hours ago, baltfan said:
Mountcastle hits nukes too and he gets frustrated. I think they are going to move it in a little at some point.
Pretty sure they've mentioned that they could potentially move it back in a bit. Either way, Mountcastle's problems don't stem from missing out on HRs due to the wall. When he gets ahold of one it's gone.
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4 hours ago, Frobby said:
Also, the old wall was very short. I don’t consider players to be “robbed” by the new wall every time a ball is hit that would have been over the old one. In my mind, they’re only robbed if the hit would have been out in the vast majority of stadiums. That does happen, but nowhere near as frequently as people think.
Definitely agree with this sentiment. It was certainly convenient when JJ Hardy was poking balls out in LF, but it was at the expense of our entire pitching staff.
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44 minutes ago, Frobby said:
When? I don’t think he gets promoted until that K rate comes down significantly, which isn’t likely to happen in the next 4/5 weeks.
The person above me said "I wonder if he ever gets much beyond Bowie". Fabian is at AA in his first season of pro ball and he plays good CF defense. He's obviously eventually getting promoted. Might never make the show, but he's certainly got a shot and his K rate this year doesn't lead me to believe he won't ever get out of AA.
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12 hours ago, baltfan said:
Mayo is going to be robbed of so. Many homers at Camden Yards.
That's one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is he's the rare type of elite power RHH that will actually be able to hit the ball out of Camden Yards consistently.
Mayo has been asked about it and he isn't concerned. He hits nukes. -
32 minutes ago, waroriole said:
I wonder if he ever gets much beyond Bowie because of the strikeouts. 133 Ks in only 351 ABs this year between Aberdeen and Bowie. An astonishing 72 Ks in only 159 ABs in Bowie. I don’t see any way this guy can hit enough to be even a AAAA player.
I would bet a substantial sum of money that he makes it to AAA.
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34 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:
That's correct, overall against the NL, but against the better NL teams we are 1-2 in series against .500+ teams... Cincy, Atlanta, LA, SD, Phi, Brewers, Cubs... But we've largely swept the bad ones. So the eye test for me is that we struggle against the better NL teams.
Holy small sample size Batman. We have one of the best records in the MLB against teams above .500, but for some reason you think the team inherently struggles against good NL teams?
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Big fan of Cowser, but this is obviously the right move. Wouldn't be surprised to see Kjerstad get the next shot (sort of similar to the Ortiz / Westburg situation even though Ortiz never really got a shot).
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54 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
How was Shohei ever a prospect? Tell me about his time in the minors. Where is Bryce Harper on this list?
That list really isn't complicated to understand. They are ranking the excitement around the guys they have had as the number 1 prospect in baseball since they started doing the list in '04. There are only 21 guys on the list, because up until recently they would only do a pre-season update every year (now they do a mid-season as well).
They sort of cheated putting Ohtani as the top prospect in pre-season 2018, but he was at the top of their list so he needs to be on this one. Harper was never their top ranked prospect, because he was behind Trout in '11 and Matt Moore in '12.
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1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:
Why do you think that wasn't a concern with how they manage Gunnar? Makes Holliday different? Is it because he is still a teen? 1:1? Something else?
I think it absolutely was a concern with how they managed Gunnar. Holliday has 16 games at AA, while Gunnar had 52 at AA and 65 at AAA. Holliday is obviously moving faster, but what people are suggesting would be unprecedented for our front office. I'm incredibly bullish on Holliday and think he has all-world potential, but I remain skeptical that he would be an improvement this year over our other more experienced infield options. On top of that - the extra year they would be giving up by pushing him could be worth upwards of $50M by the time he's a free agent.
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8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Value. That is why Holliday comes up this year. Obviously, the value that he adds for a playoff run. However, the value of him being ROY eligible, and the favorite for next year, to win Elias an extra “1st rd pick”. There’s no way that we wait until next 9/1 to call him up. Also, I think it would be easier on a clubhouse favorite to get pushed aside for Holliday than Joey Ortiz.
I think they'll be way more concerned with Holliday's development / the extra year of control vs. the potential draft pick. Would be really shocked to see him spring past Ortiz and would be equally surprised to see him break camp with the team next year. They'll be looking to bring him up after the super 2 deadline.
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On 8/8/2023 at 9:49 PM, Frobby said:
Look, it’s a matter of putting the best 9 guys on the field. If could be that Holliday in LF allows us to do that. I’m not saying it does, but it’s possible if Westburg and Ortiz both max out offensively.
I'd be pretty surprised if Holliday ended up in LF over Westburg. Seems like they could both do it if needed. Either way, all of this is a good problem to have.
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10 minutes ago, Royle said:
Do we know if Brown is under contract for next season ?
The rumors have been that he is not.
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Just now, Beysbol said:
Yeah, unfortunately it is.
Lets see how he does against a team that isn't Houston.
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Baserunning has been terrible and the commentators haven't said a word. Almost like they are afraid to criticize anything. Wonder why?
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5 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:
is anyone confident with Cano and MounTain today?
I am always confident in Felix. Cano has been hit and miss, but I still feel good with him out there.
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5 minutes ago, gtman55 said:
I've heard more about Dippin Dots than I really want to know. This is the worst broadcast team ever. Ugh.
I think Melanie is improving, but she only works if you have someone really strong next to her like Ben or Palmer. Otherwise, it devolves into this.
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I've been plenty critical of Frazier at times this year, but that was an awesome play.
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Really nice job by Dean there. Hope the bats can get him some more support.
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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Collage player needing an offensive makeover taken near the top of the draft with the profile of an elite defender with plus speed.
Seems like a fairly apt comparison.
I know the rules have changed, but Fabian is already closing in on Grenier's SB total as well. I guess if every glove first guy with hit tool issues is an apt comparison to Grenier than Fabian fits the bill, but they seem like very different players.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
Power was never projected for Grenier.
Wasn't supposed to be part of his game.
I'm aware. I'm responding to the poster that asked if he is the Cadyn Grenier of CF.
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7 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
Is he the Cadyn Grenier of CF?
He has 18 HRs so far this year. Grenier had 23 in 4+ seasons.
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Enrique Bradfield 2023
in Minors
Posted
Mullins has 1 season above a .350 OBP. I'm sure we hope he can do that, but he can still be a very good MLB player if he has a .330 - .340 OBP with elite speed and defense.