luismatos4prez
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Posts posted by luismatos4prez
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This is like when Ryan Flaherty left and hit .300 for the first week of the season and folks dragged DD and Buck for letting a guy who clearly had finally learned how to hit. Then, crickets when he came back to Earth and had a .590 OPS that year.
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I didn't want to make a new thread for this, but I noticed Grenier wasn't on the bench in Norfolk's game last night. He played SS in Norfolk's game on Saturday and went 3-3 with 2BBs and a great play in the field.
If you look at his player page here: https://www.milb.com/player/cadyn-grenier-663760 it says he's on the Voluntary Retired List. Did he have a great game and then leave on a high note like George Costanza?
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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Wow! A 17 run lead in the 8th turned into a save situation.
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Other Thoughts:
- Cowser and Norby aren’t eligible next year but hopefully will be in Camden Yards by the end of this season if they rake. I expect Westburg won’t have to wait till next winter either.- Brandon Young and Kyle Brnovich could be interesting post-TJ picks for a team (like Tyler Wells), we’ll see if they pitch this year or not.
- Of the long shots, I like Ryan Watson and Xavier Moore’s chances the best.
- If I had to pick today, I’d protect Westburg, Kjerstad, and Haskin.
- Here’s last year’s thread. Some of the midseason hot takes in there seem ridiculous now, mine included.
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I’ll be using this thread to predict the 40-man roster adds next winter. Last year, I enjoyed tracking the rise and fall of guys and eventually predicted the adds correctly. I like checking in every month or so and seeing how things have changed.
Below is where I see things currently with eligible guys. Tony’s ranking in parentheses. The Long Shot category includes other eligible guys that made Tony’s Top 75 or that I find a little interesting.
Locks:
1. Westburg(6)
2. Kjerstad(10)Bubble:
3. Haskin(28)
4. Handley(33)Unlikely:
5. Pinto(35)
6. B. Young(37)Long Shot:
De Los Santos(34), Strowd(39), Rangel(40), Moore(41), R. Watson (52), Feliz(53), Peek(56), Cullen(57), Gillispie(62), Hoffman(63), L. Valdez(65), Bellony(66), DeLeon(68), Servideo(70), Brnovich(74), A. Hall, Fontana, Stallings, DesonAny disagreements or predictions?
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2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Lol, the only way they can get Rutschman out is him running into outs on the bases.
"I've done my job. Time to go put my gear on"
- Adley, after hitting a single
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23rd in attendance in baseball last year. We were 13th in 2014. The fans will be back when we win.
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10 minutes ago, Going Underground said:
Is Seth Johnson on the 40 man roster?
I believe you get ML service time and salary once you're added to the 60-day IL. They want to delay that as long as possible for him this year. Guys on the 40-man but in the minors make a lot less than ML minimum.
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Some guys with high OBPs flame out in the majors. They have good eyes and discipline to lay off wild minor leaguers, but they can't catch up when ML pitchers challenge them in the zone. DJ Stewart and Joey Rickard are two examples that come to mind. I think Vavra will be a similar caliber of hitter, though with some ability to play the IF.
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I get why people are against it, but this tournament has been excellent PR for baseball both in America and internationally. Huge viewership numbers, a ton of social media attention, and electric crowds. Plus, the players clearly care a lot.
In sports news, I've seen more on Turner's grand slam than anything in March Madness so far, really great for the game.
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If you could redraft that year, would you rather have Lawlar (consensus Top 15 prospect) or Cowser and Norby (both borderline Top 100 guys)? Their two bonuses about equaled Lawlar's.
I like Cowser and Norby, but so far I'd say Mike picked wrong there. It will be interesting to check in again in a few years.
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Attaboy Cedric! Orioles CFs love the WBC.
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1 hour ago, Ripken said:
Can't wait for Pfizer Field.
I prefer Pfizer Pfield.
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I have a better chance than GRod of throwing 115 pitches in a game for the Orioles this year.
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The argument appears to be that Frazier was good, but now stinks. Consider that he was still worth 1.1 fWAR last year and underperformed his xwOBA by 25 points. He's still a 1.5-2 WAR guy in my book. Or more if he recaptures 2021 form.
Should Elias have signed him? Only if a trade is coming from MIF depth as I said before. And even so, it's a questionable use of 8M on a team with an apparently still pathetic budget. But despite all that, Frazier is still a good player.
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I don't understand why a 2.4 WAR/yr player with 12.4 career WAR is being discussed as if he's Brandon Fahey. I understand the frustrations over whether he's the best use of 8M, but he is a good player and it's silly to pretend otherwise.
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I'll go on the record as saying yes if it comes with a trade from our MIF depth. Put a package like Mateo, Bradish, and Westburg on the market and see what you can get back.
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1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:
Frazier was pretty good earlier in his career but he has really only had one good half season in the last three years.
2020: .230/.297/.364
2021 pre-trade: .324/.388/.448
2021 post-trade: .267/.327/.335
2022: .238/.301/.311
That said, maybe they see something that they believe they can fix to get him back on track.
True, but he’s been a 2 WAR per year player over that timeframe despite that.
Imagine we needed a 2B (which we don’t). Getting a 2 WAR guy on an 8M deal would be great.
People are acting like he’s a scrub, which he isn’t. He’s a good player, just doesn’t seem to fit the Orioles who have Urias, Vavra, Westburg, and Norby. Unless, like others have suggested, a trade is coming for a SP or MOO
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I don't understand this signing either, but Frazier is a good player. 2-3 WAR guy over his career. Strong defender at multiple positions and an above average hitter vs RHPs (104 wRC+). Is this the best use of 8M to improve the team? No, I don't think so. We already had a lot of infield depth. But people are acting like we gave Odor 8M. Frazier is a good player.
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On 10/1/2022 at 2:06 PM, luismatos4prez said:
End of minor league season thoughts
Protect:
1. Grayson Rodriguez
2. Joey Ortiz
3. Drew Rom
4. Seth Johnson
5. Noah Denoyer
Don't Protect:
6. Maverick Handley
7. Ignacio Feliz
8. Garrett Stallings
9. Brennan Hanifee
10. Zach Peek
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This is my final answer. It was fun to track how the list changed throughout the year in this thread. Joey Ortiz went from bubble to lock and Noah Denoyer went from unknown to protection-worthy. I think I'll start this thread in spring next year to track the rise and fall better.
I didn't mention guys like Adam Hall or Robert Neustrom, because I think there's no chance. But, I would have said the same about Logan Gillaspie last year. We'll see if Mike agrees with me or throws another curveball.
I still go back and forth on Handley, but ultimately think it's unlikely a team selects a catcher who's never played at AAA.
Any disagreements?
This is a self-congratulatory post, but I’m pleased I got it right after tracking this all year. Not that the picks were too difficult this year. It will be fun to track again next year
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4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Just because someone is good doesn’t necessarily mean the team is going to build around that player. That’s what a core guy means to me.
I can't imagine a definition of core that includes Ryan Mountcastle but not Cedric Mullins.
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Cedric deserves more respect.
15th OF in baseball by fWAR this year. He may not be a 30/30 guy, but he's a stud.
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
You would think so, considering that most teams just prioritize having a backup catcher who plays good defense. On the other hand, someone said there isn't much history of teams taking catchers in the rule 5.
There have been only 4 catchers selected since 2009, none since 2016. They were worth -1.3, -1.0, -0.9, and -0.2 fWAR respectively in their first ML seasons (all better than Chirinos this year though). The -0.2 was in only 36 PAs.
I have a hypothesis that catching at the ML level is significantly more mentally demanding than fans realize.
All this doesn't necessarily apply to Handley, but it's a trend. I'd leave him unprotected and let this Cam Gallagher guy back Adley up next year.
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On 9/28/2022 at 12:55 PM, LookinUp said:
It might mean we cannot protect someone like Hanifee or someone similar. Here's a good thread on the actual folks who need to be protected. I'm not sure if it's up to date after trades. I haven't read through it in a while.
The thread is up to date now! I project 5 guys being protected but could be 1 or 2 more.
And there is considerable 40-man roster space. There are 12-15 guys on the 40-man roster right now who would not be missed.
Jackson Holliday 2023
in Minors
Posted
Here's a random tangent:
Batting average is way down across the league since Gwynn played of course. To the degree that over the last 80 years, Luis Arraez has the highest BA+ (129) in baseball with a .318 career average, even higher than Tony Gwynn (128) with his .338 career average or Ted Williams (128) with his .344 career average.
Okay, back to Holliday.