Bubble Buddy

Here's my question when taking last year and using it as a baseline assumption for this year: At what point are we able to factor in the improvements of our young players and consider that they may be a .400 team or better? I know you said I guess we'll see, and reality is, that's all we can really do at this point. But I'm curious when you will consider it reasonable that they could play .455 ball the rest of the way? I am as surprised as anyone, having referred to a lot of these guys as scrapheap guys. None of them really have prospect pedigree, or at least if they did, they went through some serious rough patches. And I agree that this is a SSS. Fortunately for us, the whole season is a SSS. I do think there is the slight possibility offensively that we've hit the lottery and have 5-7 unheralded (or slow developing) young players that have grown at once (Ruiz, Severino, Sisco, Scott, Castro, Nunez, Santander, Alberto). The good news with Severino, Alberto, Santander and Nunez is they gave us a little bit of a sampling from last year. If they've made incremental improvements on who they were last year, they are pretty good role players. And then as far as starters, it helps having Cobb back and hopefully Means can stay healthy (or really both of them!). It could almost be like we swapped Cobb for Cashner. The question then becomes, can Means produce similar to last year down the stretch and can we get someone duplicate Bundy's production and not have the 4/5 roles be a complete disaster. As far as the bullpen, right now our team ERA is 4.19, a huge improvement on last year's 5.79. Plus I think the peripherals point to that ERA being sustainable and not too fluky. I like that we've taken Givens out of the closer role and I like what I've seen from Tanner Scott. And hopefully we can get Hunter Harvey back. I'm not savvy enough to get the advance stats on the defense and would be curious about that. It seems like we're avoiding the costly mistakes (when Nunez is DH), but I know there's a lot more to it than that. But, all that to be said, if the goal is to play .455 baseball from here on out (possibly slightly less if we can sneak that Nats win), that doesn't seem crazy anymore in this 60 game season with the start we've had.

Plus Corbin. I’d honestly be happy if we can hang on to the suspended game and win 1 of 3. We’ll have done some pretty good damage to the NL East even with the Marlins nightmare.

Just 5 for 12. But still. This is one of those numbers that will sink down.

This is definitely a sobering post. You can never discount that this could just be the one solid 20 game stretch we’d have in a long season, and it just so happens that we had it in the first 20. But, the longer we can keep it up, the more margin for error we give ourselves in the short season. I’d sign up for any sort of playoff baseball. Wasn’t expecting that for another 3-5 years. And still may not get it until then beside even if we do sustain it this year.

Makes me think of the Mariners starting 13-2 last year. If this was a full season, I’d say it’s just a good 20 game stretch. Maybe the only one we’d have. But we’re almost halfway through the season. Every win feels like it means something. Gives us more margin for when the offense inevitably cools down.

I mean that’s one way to look at it. I still think there’s a pretty stark difference between 2012 and today for the reasons I stated. And many of those guys we brought in had solid major league experience or track record, even if we were able to “buy low” at the time. Even Davis and Hunter had solid rookie years with Texas.

I say “scrap heap players” affectionately. There’s probably a better term. Anyways, DD funneled all kinds of guys through the system that year, but the core group of players was comprised of guys meticulously collected from 2007-2012. And then I think there’s a difference with the guys acquired to supplement the core. Chris Davis, Jason Hammel, JJ Hardy, Tommy Hunter, DOD, McLouth and Mark Reynolds are different than what we have this year. None of those guys had been sent down to the minors or outright released. All of them had some level of a major league track record or minor league pedigree, and they were acquired in trades. Plus the core of Wieters, Machado, Jones, Markakis, Hardy, Jim Johnson, etc. What was kind of crazy about that team to me was none of the “cavalry” had hit at that point. Hammel and Chen were huge. So yes, 2012 was quite the miracle, but I feel it was pretty markedly different than this team. Still hoping for a different kind of 60 game miracle from this team though.

The difference with 2012 is that that team took years to build with top flight talent. I wonder if there’s a precedent in baseball for having 5ish “scrap heap” players hit at once. I’m still expecting regression from Severino, Ruiz, Alberto, Santander, Sisco etc. Hell, even John Means was scrap heap. Castro, Sulser. Whereas 2012’s core were pretty legitimate MLB talents.

Is it me or does the schedule look a little more doable than before the season? Navigate through this weekend OK, and then ending August is not too bad the way Boston and Toronto are playing. And then we get to end the season with BOS/TOR. It’s also really weird to scroll the schedule this season. I was into June of 2021 when I realized, oh s***, the season ends next freaking month! It feels like this team has made more comebacks this season than they have since 2016. every time I check the box score, we’re down in the middle innings, only to check later to see that we’ve taken the lead. I know that’s not likely to sustain. I think we’re likely to have the bats go really cold (almost everyone is playing above their history), but again, we are basically 13 games from the half way point. If we can manage to go near .500 through the end of this month.. We will continue to be right in the thick of things for one of those 16 playoff spots which is shocking and exciting.

This article is very informative about his evolution. Without the velocity, he has to maintain the sharp quality of all 4 pitches plus command to maintain his current production. It's likely hard to keep that level of sharpness. But he also sounds like a guy that has learned a lot the past few years and adjusted to the stuff he now has vs. the stuff he used to have. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dylan-bundys-reincarnation-gives-angels-much-needed-rotation-ace/

Wow. I mean he's an early season wonder often, but this seems like more than that. Only given up 2 HR's and 3 BB's. I think he was trying to reinvent himself the last year or so once he could no longer be a power pitcher. Guess it's all come together. Happy for him. Disappointed for us. Even Gausman is throwing up some decent ones in SF (although I know he's subject to up and downs, although his FIP is always usually solid).

No no. Two at home, one on the road ?

Boy. Would it be the first time a team didn’t score a run in a 4 game series?

Yeah, im over it. 3 pitches exactly the same. One just a couple before that was a ball. 2 called strikes. BS

Just dropped into say, that’s the best I’ve ever seen Castro look. That would be a nice development.

Cripes. Back to reality. Thought we were gonna push at least one across there.

It’ll be interesting to see how long they can be effective, but I do really like the move to get both of these guys by Elias. If they were soft tossing righties, I’d have no confidence in them keeping it rolling. But I think about guys like Jason Vargas that had a similar profile. It’s not unreasonable to think that their production could keep up for a while. They have to maintain really good control, but both of these guys know how to pitch and get the most out of their stuff. And it is fun to watch the pitch mixing and execution.

I think I'm still stuck in a bygone era when I was following more closely (2012-2014). Was really surprised to see Iglesias be had so cheaply, but your post gives context to that.

That deal looks really affordable for a guy with Iglesias' reputation (at least around here). Looking closer, I always assumed he was a defensive wizard, yet he's only had a WAR above 2 once. ?

I came on to do my weekly check up in the off season, expecting nothing doing. Happy to see this type of acquisition. Obviously they're willing to spend a bit above the minimum in strategic situations. That's good to see and this checks a few different boxes. Plus hopefully we can flip him at the deadline.

Honestly, it felt like Tillman should have gotten surgery after 2016, IMO. He was not the same pitcher second half of 2016 and beyond. I know it's a tough decision to make, but trying to pitch on a broken wing for 2 years had to be more miserable than surgery/rehab. Obviously most shoulder injuries are pretty fatal for pitchers, but if he was ever going to get right, surgery was probably the path. Curious to see if he gets any sort of looks.

Nelson seems like a good guy and a good teammate. It's just hard not to think this way. He's one of the only position players in MLB producing at a near MVP level until age 40. I guess big papi was similar, but he also has had the PED trail. The unfortunate thing about steroids is, if someone is doing it clean as they age, it's hard to appreciate.

I'm definitely a bit jealous of the Nats for different reasons. They had a similar peak to our 2012-2016 teams and I honestly thought their window had passed. They are the oldest team in the majors. But they were able to ride this wave to a title. Soto was huge, the Corbin signing paid off (at least for this year), and freaking Howie Kendrick had his best season ever at 36. I do struggle with the fear that now that they've won, they'll take even more fans away from the O's. But I guess that's the nature of it. We have the history and better ball park. We just need to win again.

Hey thanks buddy. I reckon I've mastered rookie ball.

I loved the Red Sox announcers reaction. They seemed as thrilled as the O's broadcast.