But that's the negotiation, right? Maybe both players say no. But you have to be looking at it, right? If you believe your baseball guys, your analytics, etc, you've gotta believe you have a very good projection on where they're headed, both performance wise and salary wise.
There has to be an appropriate discount for both risk and guarantee. But if you're going to believe in building blocks, who else would you choose?
There is risk no matter what you do. You gotta risk it to get the biscuit. But measured risk, of course.