7Mo

Or maybe they see needs in a lot of areas and at this point, they're targeting high floor hitters plus relievers. And once the system is built up a little more, they target higher ceiling picks early, including starting pitching.

This doesn't answer your question but it's an interesting article on Deson. https://www.mlb.com/news/mishael-deson-impressing-as-orioles-prospect

Here's where their top 15 prospects came from, per MLB. Int'l, Int'l, college 1st round pick, trade, trade, college 3rd round, college 1st round, trade, HS 1st round, HS 1st round, college 7th round, Int'l, HS competitive balance pick, college CB pick, and Int'l. That's 3 of 15 that are their HS picks. Not saying anything you posted is incorrect. I'm just saying that an idea that you only build thru high ceiling HS guys in early rounds isn't nearly enough, and I know you're not saying that. Obviously the O's need to continue working on J2 signs and I believe they are. And I wasn't suggesting that you don't target high ceiling guys in trades or that you don't ever consider HS guys early in the draft. If the intention this draft was to take the first 4-5 picks as higher floor guys, I don't have a problem with it given how many needs this organization has right now. Thanks for your post.

I understand that you disagree on those guys. And obviously they won't be traded unless someone offers enough value back. You and I just look at the approach and plan for these guys differently. No way to know either way right now.

What it means to me is Elias may be following the Rays approach more closely than I originally believed. And that's a very risk averse approach, the opposite of taking the marquee name or huge upside pick. The Rays let Charlie Morton walk this offseason after he had a great season for them. Their view was they could either pay Morton $15M or they could sign a number of guys for that same amount of money, and that led to Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Collin McHugh, Chas Roe and Oliver Drake. Risk averse. I can only imagine the gnashing of teeth and cries of "cheap" on this board were that to happen here. The Rays WAR leaders right now don't come from their own high draft picks. Tyler Glasnow came in the Archer trade, Zunino was a FA sign at a low dollar figure, Brandon Lowe was a 3rd round pick, Joey Wendle was a 6th round pick by the Indians, Austin Meadows came in the Archer trade, Collin McHugh was a FA sign with a portion of the Morton money, Manuel Margot was an international sign acquired in trade, Yandy Diaz was an international sign acquired in trade, Randy Arozarena acquired in trade, Ryan Yarbrough is a Seattle 4th round pick acquired in trade. To view this draft and try to project what the O's will look like in 2023 or 2024 is folly. Guys will overachieve, guys will underachieve, pitchers will break, some guys will come out of nowhere. But I think a lot of the value the 2024 O's have will come from trades. To this point, Elias hasn't had much value to trade. There's a limit to what you can acquire for Cashner, Cobb, Givens, and Bundy. There is significantly more you can acquire for Mancini, Means, Mullins, Santander, Fry, Scott, Tate, etc. I'm not saying all of those guys get traded this July. But I think they're all gone within the next year. I agree with the posts above that say Elias isn't looking at a window of contention. I think he's going to follow a risk averse approach that hopefully lands 8-9 position players on the field that are at least average major leaguers, but without the 1-2-3 Juan Soto's or Vlad Jr's, etc. And a byproduct will be just like you see with the Rays, when Chris Archer or Blake Snell have peak value, they're replaced by 3-4-5 guys who cumulatively produce the same or greater value, just as with Morton above. The posters who want to yell "cheap" and "this is what you do to sell a team" can do so. But that won't necessarily be accurate. Or not the primary reason. We all talk about the limits on the O's. But this approach is something the Yankees can't do, the Red Sox can't do, Toronto probably can't, the Cardinals can't and they're headed straight downhill for the next several years. Those fanbases would not allow it. If you truly admire what the Rays have done, and Oakland, and I do, I think you have to understand that risk averse decisions are going to be the norm for years to come, not the shiny high ceiling HS guy or the Blake Snell as he becomes more expensive. I'm all on board with that idea. Unfortunately, I think 2022 is gonna suck on the MLB level with the exception of 4-5-6 guys coming up that we can look forward to, or maybe several more than that. But that should lead to some FA adds in winter 2022 for the 2023 season to make that a lot of fun. All of this is based on not one single bit of inside information or actual knowledge. Just my thoughts from 10,000 feet.

I'm just feeling all this pressure to do this right. It's stressful.

Thank goodness. I was concerned.

I'm not touting the guy. Just answering the previous poster.

Dylan Heid, RHP, Pitt Johnstown: Heading into the summer, Heid was likely the DII alum who was going to be drafted the highest. However, he has since entered the transfer portal despite still hoping to go pro. He’s a big righty, listed at 6’2 and 205 pounds and has a 94-96 mph fastball that led to 105 strikeouts in 59.1 innings for the Mountain Cats. He then went on to the MLB Draft League where his fastball was frequently listed among the best pitches of week. Heid tossed 18 innings in the MLB Draft League, striking out 35 and allowing just one earned run. Throw in a slider and changeup, along with a loose arm that doesn’t require much effort and you have a stud pitcher in the making.

Or take 2 and sign one of those 2.

Pavolony had a hand injury early in the year. His stats were climbing after that but stayed suppressed comparatively. Might turn out to be a pretty good pick.

FIFY

Dude was Sun Belt Conference Pitcher of the Week twice. Not sure how you can ask for more than that.

Need to tank one more year and we'll grab both of those next year.

I suspect GM's all over baseball will study how the Pirates run their operation after this masterful draft.

Joshua Baez, Ethan Wilson, Jaden Hill, Matt Mikulski, Spencer Schwellenback or Connor Norby. Do not want Jud Fabian, Adrian del Castillo, Tommy Mace or Christian Franklin.

Would you take Jaden Hill at 41?

With the idea that Mayer goes #1 and Leiter and Lawlar are gone before we pick, I'd prefer: Henry Davis Kahlil Watson or Brady House then Harry Ford or Colton Cowser HS picks can have a higher ceiling, college guys give you substantially more data to help with a decision. I think Davis gives the highest floor/most security with the pick with Cowser very close to the same. Watson, House and Ford likely have more upside but there's less information available and probably a year added to MiLB development and more risk. Jackson Jobe gets glowing reviews but he's still a HS RHP and I don't want to bet that he beats the odds for a HS RHP. I'd feel better about betting on a Jobe when the system is fully stocked, not now.

100% agree.

I'm gonna take a stab in the dark and say Tony doesn't feel a need to hear from other posters on this board about minor leaguers in this system.

And in multiple threads. Everyday!!

Hope you post more often. Really good stuff in here. Thanks. You mention Rocker, Frelick and smoke screens in the same paragraph. I think there are a LOT of smoke screens leaking about now. Grading strictly as a hitter, Cowser or Davis? By a little or by a lot? Cowser grades well as an outfielder, to the point that some argue he would be a good ML CF'er. I'm not at all concerned about taking Davis as a less than average ML catcher. You could catch him 1-2 times a week, DH 1-2 times, first base 1-2 times. But Cowser might bring more defensive value. If they are close based solely on hit plus power, does that make the difference?

Do you disagree with the idea that any one, or all, of Means, Mullins, Mancini and Santander would be traded if the package coming back is good enough?

Thoughts on Ofelky Peralta. Saw that you downgraded Johnny Rizer but I've been hopeful about him. Zach Watson had a very productive college career but hasn't hit in 2 years. Thoughts?

Just my opinion but I think there's a real good chance that Fry, Tate and Sulser get traded this month. But I'd still feel pretty good about the pen based on the names you mentioned that don't wind up starting plus 1-2 lower cost FA signs this winter.