Porky

I agree. My hope is that this maybe is a trial run - and if they like it, they'll do a more comprehensive redesign and move the bullpens back. I'm not optimistic though.

Or, the Orioles' brand and culture has been tanked so far into oblivion, it is going to be more difficult to land contributing free agents than simply writing the biggest checks.

Eight winning seasons in the last thirty years certainly doesn't help a brand. The Ravens and Orioles could not be more opposites.

I agree. They've been pretty tactical about everything, PR be damned. I think they keep him down.

I agree with you - I don't think the O's relocating is impossible, but I think it is unlikely. Baltimore City continues to lose population and yes, has its problems. And the Baltimore Metro area isn't growing as quickly as many places in the country - but it's still the 20th largest metropolitan area in the country and it's a pretty wealthy one. Camden Yards is relatively old now, but it seems primed for Fenway/Wrigley legendary status and I can't see any new owner chomping at the bit to build some new palace. Besides that, like you mentioned, I don't think MLB itself really wants the O's to move. MLB uses Nashville, Portland, and Vegas all the time as a bargaining chip to pressure local governments into getting new stadiums built. I don't think they want to lose those chips before they settle the stadium situations in Oakland and Tampa. MLB also is inevitably going to want to expand in the near future. The Kraken just paid a $650 million expansion fee to join the NHL. I'd guess the fee would be even bigger for MLB. Also, if the Angelos sons decide to sell, they seem like they are community-conscious enough to try and sell to a buyer who would keep them in Baltimore. But, who knows.

I subscribe to The Athletic and I like it. I'm not a big Dan Connelly fan personally, so I wish that someone else covered the O's - but what they offer more than justifies the pretty affordable price. I'm interested to see if the Baltimore Banner covers sports in their new paper. Excited to see what those folks put together as an alternative to The Sun.

Couldn't agree more. A "rebuild model" isn't a set of instructions. Every rebuild will be unique.

Answering your question with a question --- let's take a look at other rebuilds of late and maybe explore the fuzziness of what can be called a rebuild: The Cincinnati Reds: They embarked on a rebuild in 2015 when they traded away many of their players after a strong run from 2010-2013. They finished the year with 64 wins and would post losing seasons again in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 as they rebuilt - resulting in six straight losing seasons in a row. In 2019 and 2020, they made moves to add Bauer, Castellanos, Moustakas, and others in an effort to become contenders. They finished 31-29 in 2020 to finally make the playoffs, but lost to the Braves in the wildcard round. They finished 83-79 in 2021 and missed the playoffs. Now, ownership has said they will likely need to scale back payroll to be more realistic with the market after a few years of over-expenditure. So, is their rebuild over? A one-and-done playoff appearance and two slight winning seasons later? Or does the past eight years just represent the first wave in a much longer rebuild? Or... is it just a failed rebuild? The Philadelphia Phillies: After a really good run from 2001-2011, the Phillies held onto their aging core longer than most. They finished 81-81 in 2012 and didn't get back to a "winning" season till 2021 with a 82-80 record. They have yet to make the playoffs. For their "rebuild," Andy McPhail was hired in 2015 - so I'd say their rebuild started around then. The signed Harper and others in 2019. So, in their rebuild over? They finally had a winning season after nine seasons without one. But, no playoff appearances. They finished two games above .500 this year. And their farm system is relatively bare after win-now trades. The San Francisco Giants: Everyone knows about the Giants' success since 2010, but 2017-2020 resulted in four straight losing seasons for the club with a rebuild obviously needed with lots of aging players on the books. Farhan Zaidi was hired in November 2018 and the team soon saw the departures of Bumgarner, Samardzija, and others. In 2021, the Giants surprised everyone and won 107 games thanks to amazing performances from their older players - particularly 6.1 WAR from a 34 year old Brandon Crawford and 3.5 WAR from a 34 year old Buster Posey. After a great year - Posey had retired, their top pitcher in Kevin Gausman has left, and their team is overwhelming comprised of players well over the age of 30. So, is their rebuild over? They just had the best record in baseball. But, with such an old team, is the "rebuild" over?

I think you're missing the point. I'm not saying I disagree with what Elias is doing. But simply, Elias was not hired and then on Day 1 he started to think, "Oh, what should I do? This situation here is crazy." Every candidate for that job outlined what they would do during the interview process. The Angelos Sons hired Elias because they wanted to do an Astros-style tank rebuild. Elias aligned with that vision. Building a baseball team is not a binary decision between a full teardown and some perpetual 75 win patch job. I really don't get why that is accepted as some sort of fact around here. The Orioles chose to do a teardown. But certainly, look around baseball and there's plenty of teams doing it other ways, with and without money.

I think the narrative that Elias walked into some kind of wasteland is hyperbole. The farm system was far better than advertised and the major league roster had respectable veterans on it. Ownership wanted to do a tanking strategy and they hired Elias because he had the resumé to do it from his time with the Astros. If the Angelos sons wanted to go with a different strategy, they would have hired someone else. Elias is here to tank, plain and simple.

They've lost over 100 games in 2018, 2019, and 2021. They seem likely to be just as bad in 2022. They play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Getting any free agent to come here is going to result in an overpay.

Their payroll is at about $124 million right now, according to this. That's not an expensive team, especially for the 5th largest media market in the country. We'll see if it works for them, but they're definitely a much better team overnight and have positioned themselves well for the arrivals of Taveras, Jung, and Leiter. And isn't that the point? The goal of the game is to win the World Series. There's no trophy for most-efficient-use-of-payroll.

I think the incumbent position players should show improvement collectively, but it might be relatively negligible factoring in Mullins' inevitable drop-off and unexpected injuries. It really comes down to the pitching. GrayRod should be here over the summer, but I don't think our expectations can be that high for a rookie. Overall, I'm probably more pessimistic about the Orioles' internal pitching than most, but I don't really see the needle moving much for the pitching staff unless outside talent is brought in to supplement.

I'm not 100% sure, but if they sold now while Peter Angelos is alive, they would have to pay capital gains tax on the sale. Angelos' group bought the team for $173 million in 1993. The Royals just sold for $1 billion in 2019. So, assuming the O's sell for about that, they're looking at a big tax bill. If they wait until after Peter Angelos passes on, they'd avoid the capital gains tax since tax laws would assess the club at it's current fair market value. It all seems pretty complicated, here's an article from ESPN about it: https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2407875

Besides the obvious point that many, many prospects don't pan out - is there a scout who actually believes Gunnar sticks at SS?

Definitely true. I think Manfred, executives, and players have been pretty vocal this past year about MLB facing some existential issues (tanking, three-true-outcomes, etc). It seems like they recognize the same problem and seem motivated to do something about it, but whether they can agree on the solutions is another question. I think I'm inclined to agree with your prediction - the lockout will put their backs up against a wall and ultimately they won't really change anything too substantial.

Yeah, I agree - and am pretty dumbfounded by most of the posts in this thread. Frazier's been a quality player when he's been able to stay healthy. I would be very surprised if he signed somewhere for much money at all, given his dizziness issues. Exactly the type of low-risk, high-reward player the Orioles should be after.

Completely agree. There's a big difference between signing a 20-year-old shortstop and a 23-year-old catcher to a big extension. J.T. Realmuto got a 5/$115.5m contract to start his age-30 season. While the hopes for Adley's career might be higher, Realmuto's contract isn't exactly earth-shattering for one of the best players at his position.

The Baltimore Metro Area has 2,844,510 people and the St. Louis Metro Area has 2,820,253. Both have similar TV markets. Both share their market with only one other professional team from the big four sports. Both are squeezed by other franchises - the O's have the Nats and Phillies; the Cardinals have the Cubs and Royals. In 2017, the last time the Orioles tried to compete, the Cardinals had a payroll of $152m and the Orioles had a payroll of $163m. Outside of baseball, they're also both cities that have struggled in the 21st Century in many of the same ways. The difference between the Cardinals and Orioles has nothing to do with their geographic luck. It has everything to do with the fact the Cardinals have been one of the best run organizations in MLB for the past 20 years, and the Orioles have been one of the worst.

St. Louis and Baltimore are similar cities - and I think the Cardinals are probably the aspirational example to where we could see the Orioles go. An organization that relies on its farm system for the most part, but has the payroll capacity to retain its Molinas and Wainwrights, and afford an outside-sourced star or two. Which would be amazing, the Cardinals have two World Series Championships and only one losing season since 2000. Pretty impressive.

Great point. Tampa is reported to have offered Wander Franco a contract that exceeds Ronald Acuña's. They just are super efficient with their money and avoid big risk.

2022 will be Elias' fourth season. He inherited the 1st overall pick in a draft with a slam dunk prospect and a farm system that was much better than advertised, including the current top pitching prospect in baseball. He's also had the benefit of an owner who has blessed three seasons of tanking baseball to tryout every possible diamond in the rough. So I agree, we definitely should see improvement next year. I'm not worried about W-L total, so much as seeing better performance on the field.

I'm sure the payroll will go higher eventually. But, not because they put some money in a vault from 2019-2022. Not really sure how that practice would be considered a sustainable way to build a team anyway.

I've seen you write this a few times, and I disagree with you each time. I don't think it's realistic to expect that money "not spent" this year is being "saved" for tomorrow. The team's cash flow and resources are more complicated than that. The team is bad, so revenue and profit is down. Beside that, we've seen so many peculiar moves from this organization. Earlier in the year, the O's were trying to get Mancini and Santander to take deferrals on their arbitration salaries. They gutted their broadcast teams. There were reports about MASN and its issues earlier in the year. For anything we've heard, the O's seem relatively cash-strapped. By not spending, if you mean future payroll flexibility in terms of "money saved" - then yes, you're correct. But thinking $20m saved this year is being held in a vault for another year - I just don't think it's believable based on everything we've seen from the O's this year.

Outside of Rutschman, I don't really think there's a slam dunk player in the minors we would have to worry about being blocked. Teams need many pitchers, there's three outfield positions, and the infield talent can play around the diamond. They can always be traded too.