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SemperFi

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    Gunnar
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    Eddie Murray

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  1. There was an attractive woman dancing in the stands and camera men are well....men.
  2. I was just facetiously wondering where Rubenstien was as he seems to be at every game-and there he is in the stands..... He's most likely attended more games in his 70 games as an owner than JA did in total in his "control" years. I find that sooo encouraging for the Orioles long term future.
  3. I don't think that was the initial plan but if Bradisch is out for TJ you have to replace 1-2.
  4. Oddly enough I wondered if anyone else saw that too!!!
  5. In continuance of the discussion in the Bradisch thread re: Cowser as an "elite" OF: I think as the game slows for him he will be an plus defender in LF, hopefully with the Orioles. However I argued his arm is not yet reliable and while there are little or no stats available that measure accuracy (as opposed to velocity) Savant places him 107 out of 125 OF's for the most important stat-advance attempts-far behind Hays whose arm is much more respected at #10, Tony and even Mullins "noodle arm" rate much higher. EG: Runners advance at a rate 25% higher on Cowser than Hays. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/baserunning?type=Fld&sortColumn=rate_safe&sortDirection=asc In each of the measurable arm metrics (other than velocity) he is far from "elite". For advances/attempts to advance above average/succesful advances he is around ~90th in MLB and last among Orioles OF. When you juxtapose Hays's numbers onto CC one thing is evident-Hays has a well earned rep and guys generally don't run on him-guys at this point don't respect CC's arm.
  6. I think game situation or context is also important. HK was recently criticized for not diving for a ball in Norfolk-yet it was a one run game/8 or 9th inning no one on. The play is to keep the ball in front of you, not allowing the runner to get into scoring position. CC was tentative in the field last year but I don't see it now at all.
  7. That's nice but it's a "straw man"argument if I ever saw one. I'd wager Pete Gray would grade as elite on OAA/DRS but the fact was he only had one arm..... There is no measure other than the "eye test" for accuracy and frankly IMO he's been poor. He has a strong arm but his last two throws to the plate from short LF and CF (I think) missed by 30 feet on either side of the plate!! Getting to the ball is important but if you can't hit a cut-his throws tend to sail-how many times have we seen Mateo/Gunnar have to reach for throws then reset.... We saw the other night against Toronto guys are going to run (even slow, chubby ones) against Cowser until he shows enough accuracy to shut them down-and until he does he will continue to give up advances at a rate that erodes the benefit of his coverage skills. IMO the critical components of an "elite" or plus OF are anticipation, coverage, arm strength, and accuracy. He's plus on three and hopefully the accuracy will improve as the game slows for him.
  8. Cowser has the potential to be an elite corner OF but when you are talking elite those guys have accurate arms-CC has a strong arm but it's not accurate, not now.
  9. To your first point you can't compare volume of errors between SS and 2B-you get 20% less chances/PO, the throws are much longer and more difficult-it's a much more difficult place to play-frankly, one he has been competent at. Even with that he's on a pace to commit 30 errors v. Machado's 23 in the same time period....and he's at 2B. I agree that in time he will be an elite middle infielder-my larger point being the errors are not indicative of his future fielding rather him learing a new position. Many feel that you can just put him anywhere-2B, CF but he's never played there and there is a learning curve. He has likely played SS (or pitched) since he was 5 years old, all that muscle memory and instinct was built on the other side of the bag. I can recall multiple times when he blew assigments because he was confused. If ME decides he is to be a 2B he needs more experience at the position.
  10. Which exposes a somewhat flawed metric. He has all the attributes to be an elite middle infiielder but right now-at a new position he's not close. He is on- pace for ~35 errors as a 2b which is historically atrocious-bear in mind that errors are "defined" (committed) today at a rate 1/3 less prior to the 1980's. The yearly leader in errors by a 2b over the past two decades averages ~14!!!!- He's made 10 in 40 games..... And we all know that error's in itself, as a judgement call is fundamentally flawed-especially when it doesn't take into account range or game context. However in my experience error trends are usefull in not only calling out blunders but the other non-judgements that go as hits (that previously, historically were not) but also sloppy fundamental play (eg: those CoC's that fell in behind him).
  11. Holliday committed his 10th error in 40 games at 2b at Norfolk this year and that is flat out ugly. At SS last year in 2.5X the innings he made a total of 12 errors all year-at a much more demanding and difficult position. For context Westburg at 2b has a total of 2 errors in 3 times the chances, the much maligned Frazier had 5 errors in 3X the chances/games. Norby who is seen as sub par committed a terrible 16 last year in 3x the chances!! Holliday is on an atrocious pace, approaching dead ball era stats. That doesn't count the arm yips or foibles on pop ups in RF plus mistakes in responsibilities-was it a coincidence he was demoted just after blowing a crucial cut-he broke to cover the bag on a ball to RF? Look-I know error stats are dubious but this is more than a trend-he's simply not ready to play 2b defensively at ML level. I really like JH and think he is special-his range, anticipation and hands are exceptional but it's not so easy to plug a guy into a position he has rarely played without defensive consequences.
  12. As improved as he been in the field he still has to prove he can hit the cut otherwise he will continue to be run on as we saw against Toronto. Beyond cuts, I believe his last two throws to the plate were so poor they were 30 feet up each line. If he is to be a legit fill-in CF or there for an extended period his arm accuracy has to improve. I really like Cowser's athleticism in LF at Camden Yards but right now his arm makes me cringe.
  13. Please re-read I was simply adding context to that portion of your argument and pointing out to others that increasing OI by 15% in not insignifigant. What would that be worth to a public company competing in an industry with supposedly thin margins? Sure he could but there is no indication that he would. This is simply my opinion but he appears to be a fan as opposed to JA, new owners ALWAYS tend to spend, he's a bright man is competitive and understands the Orioles have a competitive window in which increased investment in payroll benefits the value of the franchise. He also appears to be philanthropic. parochial and not necessarily driven by profit-beyond that the franchise will be watched very closely by the MLBPA (and the owners) as to how they invest back into the brand and I don't think DR and his partners want to become pariahs like the Angelos family. I have the expectation that the Orioles will ultimately settle around middle of the pack-where their revenue should fall but it will take a few years to get there.
  14. But as you stated it is PURE profit-the only cost the Orioles bear is the signage and some tickets/boxes no one was using anyway. And if your OI is ~$99m adding another $15m with very little cost basis is rather consequential. To me every indication prior to the sale was that JA was doing all he could to put the team in a favorable position for sale and every indication now is that DR will increase payroll/spending in a meaningful way.
  15. I think a good portion of the affinity for "Washington Redskins" can be attributed to Frank Herzog whose famous line was "Touchdown Washington Redskins".
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