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Who is publishing favorites to win the Cy Young Award? If Burnes is 2nd, it’s not because he’s been the second best pitcher in the league so far, it’s because he’s done reasonably well and people think he’ll do even better for the rest of the year. Anyway, if you expect a guy to be among the top 5-6 pitchers in the league and he does that, then he’s meeting expectations.
Yeah at some point the scorching hot start will be overshadowed by his ice-cold period. From March-April 15th he had a wRC+ of 258 and 1.297 OPS and a BABIP of .500
From April 16 to May 13 He's had a wRC+ of 74 and .580 OPS with a BABIP of .233 so a bit unlucky, but not nearly as big a swing as he was with the luck in March through April 15th.
At some point, you have to be concerned that he doesn't make the adjustment back. I'm sure we'll know more in another months time and hopefully, he settles somewhere in the middle. I said much earlier during his scorching hot streak that I would be happy with a .780 OPS out of him, I think I'd take the under going forward for the rest of the year.
As much success as Baltimore has had thus far doesn't mean that they will all work out. Not to mention the fact that there's varying degrees of working out.
Some of the players you mentioned haven't even gotten a chance yet, and the ones that have it's too early to make any proclamations about how they'll pan out. Elias will have to augment the roster via some trades and free agents as more vets move along.
Kimbrel is interesting. IMO his expectation is probably set by what he did last year. Here is him at the quarter pole times 4 compared to last year.
2023. 8-6, 3.28 ERA, 71 G, 23 S, 28 SO, 69 IP, 94 K, .181 avg, 1.04 WHIP
2024. 16-4. 3.86 ERA. 76 G, 32 S, 44 SO, 65.1 IP, 100K, .193 avg, 1.22 WHIP
The things that stand out to me are 16 wins, 32 saves and 44 save opportunities. All much higher than in 2023.