Tony-OH

Matthew Etzel Bats: Left-handed Age (as of Jun 30th): 22 2023 Level: A+/AA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/50 Game Power: 35/40 Raw Power: 45/45 Run: 60/60 Defense: 50/50 Most Likely Future Role: 4th/5th outfielder Ceiling: 2nd Division starter Bio: Speedy outfielder who looks like a steal after being taken in the 10th round of the 2023 draft. The left-handed swinger has a good approach at the plate and an advanced feel for the strike zone. He was an on base machine machine during his professional debut showing a knack of getting on base and then stealing them. He doesn't have a lot of power, but finds ways to drives the ball so there's a chance for some extra base pop. He's got above average speed, and shows good aptitude for stealing bases, swiping 21 bases in 24 tries as a pro in just 30 games. Defensively he's solid outfielder who can play CF, though he's probably better in the corners. His combination of plate discipline, speed and defense give him a chance at being a solid 4th/5th outfielder as long he shows he can hit upper level pitching and velocity.

Juan Nunez Throws: RHP Age (as of Jun 30th): 22 2023 Level: A-/A+ Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 55/60 Slider: 40/50 Change: 30/40 Command: 30/45 Most Likely Future Role: Reliever Ceiling: Back of rotation starter Bio: One of the Florida Complex League lottery tickets that came over from Minnesota for Jose Lopez, Nunez brings a quick arm and flashes a plus slider. The Orioles have stretching him out to four and five innings stints in order to develop his lagging command the consistency of his pitches, but he's most likely destined for the bullpen where his mid-upper 90s fastball and slider could work. His fastball can sit 96-97 MPH early in appearances though it settle in at 94-95 later. In one to two innings stints he should be able to keep that upper velocity and maybe still add a tick or two. Hi slider has good horizontal movement but not a ton of depth though occasionally he'll flash a good one. He needs to develop the depth of that slider or a workable change to defend against lefties better. He was really good down the stretch pitching to a 2.76 ERA and holding batters to a .201/.322/.309/.640 while striking out 46 in 42.1 innings. He should start the year at AA in 2024.

Kiefer Lord Throws: RHP Age (as of Jun 30th): 21 2023 Level: College Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 50/60 Curveball: 35/45 Change: 30/45 Slider: 40/55 Command: 40/50 Most Likely Future Role: Reliever Ceiling: Back of rotation starter Bio: The Orioles 3rd round selection out of the University of Washington, this 6-3 right-hander is all about projection. Lord brings a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s and touch 97 MPH, but that velocity fell off during the season at times and caused his stock to fall. He offsets his fastball with a good two-plane slider and a curve with the slider being the better of the two more often. He's shown a change at times though he didn't throw it often, but there is belief it's a pitch that can work if he uses it more. His 6.19 ERA looks terrible, but that was due to his last four starts when he allowed 27 earned runs over just 13.2 innings. Through his first 11 outings, he had a 3.63 ERA. Of course the question is, why did he end the year so poorly? He threw his fastball nearly 70% of the time during his junior year and it can miss bats, especially up in the zone. Some scouts believe with a better mix of offspeed offerings, his fastball could play up even more. He's a bit of a late bloomer who was not highly recruited out of high school, so there is still some projection left in the arm. The Orioles will develop Lord as a starter in order to improve the consistency of his offspeed offerings, but he could end up in the pen where his velocity could spike. Lots of unknowns with him overall, but the upside is good.

I'm not sure his floor is a 4th outfielder. His floor could be a complete miss if he can't make better contact. Now I do think with his ability hit lefties a bit and his good defense that he does profile as a 4th/5th outfielder, but he's got to close some holes in that swing.

I usually don't start following them until they get to the Big-10 games because usually they just beat up on the patsies, but apparently, they are the patsies. When was the last time this program started off 1-3? The Wade years? I don't follow them as closely as I had in the past, but last year's team seems to have some spunk but they really have stumbled out of the gate. Williard did not bring in any impact talent it seems. Maybe he's not the recruiter we were hoping he would be? And man, do his teams stink on the road. Wonder why?

Creed Willems Pos: C Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20 2023 Level: A+/AA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 25/40 Game Power: 40/50 Raw Power: 50/60 Run: 30/30 Defense: 40/50 Most Likely: Backup catcher Ceiling: 2nd Division starting catcher Bio: After getting sent back to repeat Delmarva, he started off 2023 red hot slashing .302/.442/.615/1.056 in his first 30 games over 120 Pas. That earned him a promotion to Aberdeen where he was one of the younger players in the league, and like his time through the Carolina League, things did not go well in Aberdeen. Pitchers started throwing him a healthy does of offspeed pitches and not only did he struggle, but got worse as the year went on. Were not sure if he wore down in the hot summer sun or just was way over matched, but Willems slashed an awful .146/.226/.215/.441 with 47 Ks, 12 BB, and just two home runs in his last 40 games over 164 PAs. On top of his struggles in the summer heat, the pudgy left-handed swinger also again struggled to hit left-handed pitching. Defensively, he throws well behind the plate with a strong, accurate arm though he doesn't have the quickest release, partially because of his squatty size. He blocks balls decently and receives well, so he should end up a solid defender behind the dish. At 20-years old, Willems was young for the Sally League by 2.2 years, but not really young for a prospect at that level. Other than his 30-game stretch to start the year in Delmarva, he really has struggled offensively mostly during his career with too many strikeouts and too many long slumps. Saying that, there is some juice in the bat and with solid defensive chops, it's too early to give up on him. Next year will be a big year for his prospect status and with few other catching prospects to compete for playing time in Aberdeen next year, he should get the bulk of the playing time and opportunity.

Jud Fabian Pos: CF Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23 2023 Level: A+/AA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 30/40 Game Power: 55/60 Raw Power: 60/60 Run: 60/60 Defense: 50/55 Most Likely: 4th/5th outfielder Ceiling: 2nd Division starter Bio: A wise scout once said that you really can't judge a hitting prospect until they get to AA. Unfortunately for this 22-year old center fielder, if that true, he majorly failed his first audition at this important level. After starting the year well in Aberdeen slashing .281/.392/.490/.882 with 9 homers and 13 doubles in 237 Pas, the right-handed hitter was promoted to Bowie (AA). In AA though he hit a wall and hit it hard, striking out in 37.5% (108 in 288 PAs). He did manage to draw a decent amount of walks (15.3%), and showed plus power putting up a .223 ISO with 15 home runs, six doubles and a triple. Pitchers were able to pitch effectively to him up in the strike zone and then get him to chase offspeed. Despite the huge amount of miss that included a 16.7% SwStr% in AA, he did end up with 98 wRC+ due to his power and ability to draw a walk. Defensively he plays a plus centerfield with an above average arm and is yet to commit an error out there. He also played some corner outfield as well. He hits lefties well slashing .248/.381/.541/.922 against them in 134 PAs on the season. He has above average speed and stole 30 bases on the season. With his speed and power combination, ability to hit lefthanders effectively and his above average defense in center field, Fabian gives off pretty good 4th outfielder vibes. There is going to be some significant miss in his bat, but he works counts well enough to get some walks and can do damage on mistake pitches. He may not end up an everyday guy at the major league level, but there are worse 4th outfielders in the majors.

Max Wagner Bats: Right-handed Age (as of Jun 30th): 22 2023 Level: A+/AA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 35/40 Game Power: 45/50 Raw Power: 55/55 Run: 60/60 Defense: 45/50 Most Likely Future Role: Utility player Ceiling: 2nd Division starter Bio: After starting the year 3-for his first-37, he got a little traction under him and slashed .256/.383/.443/.824 over his next 70 games at Aberdeen to earn a promotion to Bowie (AA). His walked rate dove (5.9% from 14.2% in High-A) and his strike out rate went up to 28.6 % in his 119 AA Pas while slashing .252/.303/.414/.717. Probably the most disappointing aspect of his first professional season was the lack of home runs hitting just 10 in 360 High-A Pas, then just 3 in the hitter friendly Eastern League (AA). He can struggle laying off sliders away and can be taken up the ladder at times with good fastballs. Wagner just didn't show a plus tool outside of surprising speed after stealing 27 bases in 33 tried on the season. Defensively he was solid at both 3B and 2B, and showed off a solid average arm from the hot corner though his throws can be a little inconsistent due to a low throwing angle at times. He moves well side to side and coming in on balls and I can see why they are giving him some chances at 2B. He'll need to add more game power or show a better hit tool if he wants to be anything more than a Ramon Urias-type player at the major league level. He does have some upside with good raw power and above average speed, but he'll need to show more in 2024.

Carter Baumler Throws: RHP Age (as of Jun 30th): 21 2023 Level: FCL/A- Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 45/50 Curveball: 40/50 Change: 40/50 Slider: 40/50 Command: 35/50 Most Likely Future Role: Reliever Ceiling: Back of rotation starter Bio: Made his way back from Tommy John surgery to throw 17 innings between the complex league and with Delmarva (Low-A). The Orioles sent him to the Arizona Fall League and he did pretty well until his last start, getting selected for the All-Star game. Unfortunately, he was unable to pitch over the last week or so and missed the game, so another injury can not be ruled out. The Elias regime does not give out injury information easily so as of now, it's unknown if it was an injury or whether it will affect him to start 2024. When he was on the mound, Baumler showed 92-93, t94 mph fastball with good ride and some arm side run. Both his slider and curveball both have good depth with his curveball looking a little ahead quality wise. He also throws a solid change with good arm side fade. The 21-year old has shown the ability to miss bats and seems to have a good feel for pitching, though his command was not great overall. With the upside of a major league starter, this placement seems about right for him considering his injury history. If he's healthy, he'll pitch at 22-years old next year and should start the season in Delmarva. He does not have a lot of milage on his arm after missing most of his senior year with injury as well as COVID, and then a series of injuries as a pro. Next year will be a big year for him to prove that he can stay healthy and he needs to get in 70 plus innings on the mound.

Trace Bright Throws: RHP Age (as of Jun 30th): 22 2023 Level: /A+/AA Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 50/55 Curveball: 40/55 Change: 40/50 Slider: 40/45 Command: 35/45 Most Likely Future Role: Reliever Ceiling: Back of rotation starter Bio: Lack of stuff is not the problem when it comes to this 22-year old, 6-4 righthander. In his first full season after being selected in the 5th round of the 2022 draft, he struck out the most batter per 9 innings (13.3/9) among any Orioles minor league pitcher who threw at least 55 innings. Bright brings a 93-95 MPH fastball that can touch 96 on occasion that has good arm side run and garner swings and misses. He offset that with a big 77-79 mph hard breaking curve that has plus downward movement. He adds in a high 80's slider/cutter and an emerging change that actually can miss left-hander bats. Unfortunately, his command is not good on any of this pitches especially the curveball and change. The curveball could be a real weapon if he could land it for strikes but batters, especially Double-A batters, were able to ignore the pitch. Same thing with the change that really can flash solid average or even plus, but again, he has to be able to throw them for strikes. He uses way too many pitches to get batters out by going deep in counts way too often. His 5.1 BB/9 is way too high and despite being hard to hit (.205./.321/.328/.649) his combined 1.31 WHIP was too high. Bright has the stuff of a starter but the command of a reliever and he'll need to improve that to have any chance of sticking as a starter. He does have a nice floor of a major league reliever who can miss bats though.

Thanks my friend, I appreciate the thoughts. May you and your wonderful family have the Happiest of Thanksgivings!

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. I hope you all have a great day with family and friends! I'm thankful that you all continue to be a Hangouter and continue to support me and the site. Orioles-related: I'm thankful to have a great system to cover and most importantly, a contending major league team that looks to be in the beginning of hopefully a long window of being one.

He's still in the top 30, but young or not for his leagues, he needs to show up next year have a real good year.

Go look at his last 40 game stats at Aberdeen and/or his overall offensive stats minus the 30-game stretch in Delmarva at the beginning of the year.

I don't that is that much of a return for mid-rotation starter with a chance to be a TOR if he can regain his 2022 magic. Since the Orioles would have him for two years at a fairly cheap price, you are going to have to give up some prospect value. By the way, I reread my post and can see how you may think I'm giving up Kjerstad/Cowser AND Ortiz. I meant if they want Kjerstad/Cowser than you do it but don't give much else up. If you give up Ortiz then you can send a mid-prospect pitcher and a lottery ticket with him. It was an either or, not both. No way I'm sending two top 100 prospects for Cease because I'm not convinced he's a sure thing.

I mentioned those in the profile. I was told he should be fine by spring training next year. I believe they will push him to the FCL unless he looks awful in spring training.

Does he? Most of his pitch value is wrapped up in a plus slider that peaked in 2022. His fastball is ok, but outside of 2022, it's been an average pitch more than a go to pitch. Cease is a good pitcher and I like that he seems to bear down when he needs to a pitch well, but no way I'm giving up Mayo or Basallo for him, and if I must trade Cowser or Kjerstad, it's not coming with much else. Ortiz and a pitcher like Bright/Baumler/Young with a wildcard like Leandro Arias/Moises Chase/Edgar Portes might be a good package.

Who are the #21-25 Prospects?

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/22/orioles-2023-20-prospect-luis-almeyda-ss/ Signed for $2.1 million as a 16-year old during the 2023 J2 signing period, it was a lost season due to a shoulder injury that eventuality led to him having shoulder surgery and ending his season. However, his upside as a power hitting shortstop with speed brings him in at #20. Luis Almeyda Pos: SS Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 17 2023 Level: DSL Tools (current/future value) Hit: 20/50 Game Power: 30/55 Raw Power: 40/60 Run: 60/60 Defense: 35/55 at SS Most Likely Future Role: Too early Ceiling: Too early What we know: As the Orioles highest Latin American signing ever, there were high hopes going into his first professional season. Unfortunately, a left shoulder kept popping out causing him to miss time and eventually led to the decision to have shoulder surgery. Luckily for him and the Orioles, he supposed to make a full recovery and be ready by spring training. An English speaker who grew up in New Jersey, he was able to go and stay with some family in the Dominican Republic in order to be eligible to sign rather than wait until his senior year of high school. At 6-foot-2, 180 pounds, Almeyda brings five tools to the field and when healthy, should be an exciting prospect to watch. His 28.3% line drive rate gives a little indication that even though his numbers weren't good statistically, he hits the ball hard. Defensively he should be able to stick at shortstop according to the early reports with plenty or arm strength and quickness, but that will be more thoroughly determined when he goes through a full season club. He's an above average runner. What we don't know: How will he recover from the shoulder surgery? How long will it take him to regain his strength? Will the Orioles move him to the FCL despite the lost season? What we think: Almeyda is a high ceiling prospect who we never really saw get it going due to the shoulder issues. It will be interesting to see what he looks like next spring. It's expected that he will get promoted to the FCL and the key is for him to stay healthy and show what he can do on the field. He should be an exciting player to follow in 2024.

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/22/orioles-2023-19-prospect-leandro-arias-ss-2b/ The upside of a middle infielder with speed and pop is enough to put this 18-year old switch-hitter on the prospect list at #19. The upside of a middle infielder with speed and pop is enough to put this 18-year old switch-hitter on the prospect list at #19. Leandro Arias Pos: SS/2B/3B Bats: S Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 18 2023 Level: FCL Tools (current/future value) Hit: 25/50 Game Power: 35/50 Raw Power: 45/60 Run: 60/60 Defense: 35/50 at 2B, 30/45 at SS, 20/40 at 3B Most Likely Future Role: Utility guy Ceiling: 1st Division Starting 2nd baseman, What we know: Quietly put up a nice season down in Sarasota as he's become the breakout middle infielder out of the strong J2 2022 signing class. At 6-foot-1 inches, he's not a big guy but he has surprising raw power from both sides of the plate. He's still trying to figure out how to bring it into games, but he did improve his ISO from .089 to .143 in a pitcher friendly Florida Complex League. Most impressively he improved his approach at the plate walking as much as he struck out and putting up an impressive .381 WOBA and 110 wRC+. He upped his line drive rate to 19.6 while dropping his K rate from 21.6% last year to just 12.3%. Like a lot of young switch hitters, he's more advanced at the plate from the left side of the plate and will need to improve on his right-handed stroke in order to stick as a switch-hitter. Defensively he struggled once again on the left side of the infield despite an above average arm. He just commits too many errors and the game definitely looks too fast for him at 3B. His best position is second base by far, but the Orioles will continue to give him looks at SS and 3B, though his 3B stats are pretty brutal. With above average speed, a move to the outfield could be in order if he can't stick on the dirt though his second base abilities have some promise. What we don't know: We never really have a feel for a young player until they get that full season under their belt so he's on the list at this point because of the upside. Will his right-handed stick come around? Can he hit upper level pitching and velocity? Will he find a defensive home? What we think: Arias has been the best so far of the International shortstops with Maikol Hernandez being a bust, Edwin Amparo having his struggles, and Luis Almeyda having shoulder issues so far. He's shown the most so far with the bat and FCL season was a nice step forward for him. He'll start 2024 in Delmarva as a 19-year old and we'll have a better idea of who he is as a prospect after next year.

Raw power is the ability to hit the ball a long way. Game power is the ability to take that into the game. A great example of gap between the two is Billy Rowell. Rowell probably had 70 raw power and could hit some prestigious BP home runs. He ended up hitting just 40 home runs in 2187 minor league PAs in his career. Most young players have that gap so nothing to be worried about now.

Actually that data is available in Fangraphs. The EV info comes from sources. Sosa was a guy who was highlighted when he signed and then even after his sub par season last year. Obviously his jump in stats and size really puts him high on the radar. Obviously still a lot of risk until we see him against upper level pitching, but next year in Delmarva will either cement his prospect status or provide more questions. He may have a higher ceiling than Braylin Tavera though Tavera's plate discipline gives him the leg up right now.

Yeah, I was looking at the little bit of video I could find of him playing this year and I was like, "No way he's 6-1.". Made a text and got those numbers back. That's an exciting development when it comes to his power potential.

He ended the year in Bowie so I'm thinking he starts there. If he can't pitch in AA at 25-years old almost two years after his Tommy John surgery he's not very good. He showed enough velocity and flashes of stuff that suggests he should have success in Bowie next year.

I still think there is some truth to the possible selling of the team that could be holding things up.