Tony-OH

If a player cannot "hurt" a pitcher because he has no power, pitchers will certainly attack him at the upper levels. But starting with the ability to judge the strike zone will help him not chase and take away one additional concern. But I agree, if Bradfield doesn't start driving the ball more he will struggle at the upper levels.

Certainly valid concerns and I can't lie, he hits a TON of groundballs and that needs to change no matter how fast he is. I'm hopeful the Orioles can develop the bat because the speed and defense are game changing. The good news is his strike zone judgement is outstanding and that's a good place to start.

When I speak to scouts they like to talk about upper division and lower division players. Basically, I think of upper Division teams as contenders. The thinking is there is a difference between a starter on the Orioles vs the A's. Take a player like Terrin Vavra. He's no longer a rookie so he doesn't qualify in the list, but I'd probably say he's got a ceiling as a lower Division starter. Most likely he's a 26th man on a major league roster, but if given 500 PAs he might be a 1.5 WAR player.

Who are the 2023 Orioles #5 and #6 prospects?

You guys are two for two! Guess no huge surprises.

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/14/2023-orioles-7-prospect-enrique-bradfield-jr-cf/ The Orioles first pick in the 2024 draft, Enrique Bradfield Jr. brings elite center field defense and speed and an above average understanding of the strike zone and comes in as the #7 prospect. Enrique Bradfield Jr. Pos: CF Bats: L Throws: L Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21 2023 Level: CPX/A/A+ Tools (current/future value) Hit: 35/50 Game Power: 20/30 Raw Power: 25/35 Run: 80/80 Defense: 65/75 Most Likely Future Role: Starting CF Ceiling: 1st Division Starting CF What we know: When the Orioles drafted Bradfield with the 17th overall pick, they envisioned him one day patrolling Camden Yards center field while causing havoc on the base paths. In his short professional debut of 25 games across three levels, Bradford was an on base machine and stole 25 bases while getting caught just twice. In 110 PAs, he walked 26 times to 16 strikeouts putting up a .473 OBP to go along with his almost unheard of 2% swinging strike percentage. He rarely swings at pitches out of the zone and forces pitchers to throw strikes. The concern though is that he doesn't really drive the ball that much and he was an extreme groundball hitter putting up a 66.7% GB% with just three extra base hits. A lot of hits were infield hits that he just used his 80 speed to beat out. As he moves up the chain, he'll need to learn to drive the ball more because pitchers will be able to throw more quality strikes and will not be afraid to pound the zone if he can't hurt them once in awhile. His speed though is clear 80 as he's already one of the fastest players in professional baseball. He once scored on a bunt hit from second base and ran so hard through the plate that they had to catch up before he fell into the dugout. He frequently beats out routine groundballs and was almost a sure thing when he stole bases. He's absolute disrupter on the base paths at all times and constantly puts pressure on the pitcher, catcher and infielders. Defensively his 80-grade speed makes up for his occasional questionable route or jump in center field. The arm though is well below average though he tends to get rid of the ball quickly to help make up for a lack of arm strength. the hope is as he gets stronger his arm will get stronger as well. What we don't know: Can he make some adjustments in his swing that will allow him to drive the ball more and become more of a threat with the bat? The Orioles believe they can get more out of the stick and if they can, they could have themselves and impact lead off hitter. What we think: Everything about Bradfield is contingent on how his bat develops. If he can find ways to get on base at the major league level, he'll be an absolute disrupter every time he gets on. At worse, his speed and defense and strike zone control should allow he to have a pretty high floor as a 4th outfielder, but he's got a much higher ceiling than that.

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/14/2023-orioles-8-prospect-dylan-beavers-of/ After slugging 35 double, 11 homers and stealing 27 bases and ending his season hot in AA, Dylan Beavers comes in as the #8 prospect. Dylan Beavers Pos: OF Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21 2023 Level: A+/AA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/50 Game Power: 40/50 Raw Power: 45/55 Run: 60/55 Defense: 50/55 2023 Highlights Most Likely Future Role: 1st Division outfielder Ceiling: 1st Division Outfielder, occasional All-Star What we know: In his first full major league season, the 21-year old left-handed swinging outfielder put up a pretty solid season between Aberdeen (A+) and Bowie (AA). Knowing he needed to make some swing changes after being drafted, Beavers worked this off season at the Titleist Performance Institute eliminating up to nine inches of movement towards the pitcher in order to add more power. The changes helped initally as he put up a .886 OPS in April. He went into a slump for about six weeks afterwards by trying to think too much about his mechanics and just went back to competing at the plate and production took off. Over his last 40 games in Aberdeen he slashed .343/.443/.580/1.024 with an impressive 29 BB to 33 K ratio in 176 PAs. That earned him a promotion to Bowie where he slashed .321/.417/.478/.894 over 157 PAs though he hit just two home runs. Beavers still tends to leak out over his front half and saps his game power, but he does make solid contact often. His power is pull side though he hits the ball to all fields and will take those oppo singles they're available. While he put on 15 pounds of muscle last offseason, he still has plenty of room to fill out and add more strength to his 6-foot-4 frame. Defensively Beavers played mostly right field where he plus arm strength plays well though he did play some center and a few games in left. He doesn't get the best of jumps at times, but his above average speed helps make up for it though he projects as a corner outfielder at the major league level. Beavers runs well and even had an inside the park home run and stole home once on a pick off play to first base. What we don’t know: He made the adjustment well against AA pitching, but did so with a drop in power. Can he find ways to stop leaking out and stay back in order for his power to play more in games? While he hit a lot of doubles, he'll need some of those doubles to turn into home runs if he wants to play right field at the major league level. He hits lefties effectively though not as well as right-handers, so there is some platoon risk as he moves closer to the majors. What we think: Beavers put together a nice season and while he doesn't have an extremely high ceiling, he has enough on base ability and solid defense to project as a starter corner outfielder, especially if he fills out and gets to his raw power

The Orioles pick up the 31st selection in the draft now! I'm a fan of that new rule!

I also think there is a little more juice in Horvath's bat and he's a little more athletic and faster. But Norby's success in AAA certainly holds weight as well.

I think you are going to find them as very similar prospects. I could have built a case for either one over the other.

While McDermott's command is definitely a concern for him sticking as a starter, but the end of the year it had become less of an issue and two different plus breaking balls really stand out in c=giving him a shot at being a back of the rotation guy and a mid-rotation guy IF his command continues to improve. He's got a high floor because I see him a bit as a right-handed DL Hall, with a little less velocity but better offspeed selections.

He clearly looks athletic enough to make the transition to the outfield and while I haven't seen him play there yet, I'd imagine he was ok enough for NC to put him in center. He's got a lot of work to do on his defense on the grass and will need his arm angle changed a bit.

I won't say you're right or wrong, but as RZNJ has correctly pointed out, it's not the first time I've called Bradfield, Bradford!

I really need him to change his name!

Who are the 2023 Orioles #7 and #8 prospects?

Yu guys got the first two! Good job!

It's that time of year once again where we give you an in-depth view of the Orioles system. This year, we will be adding in a risk rating based on level played at and injury history for each prospect. This list was produced after performing 100s of hours of video scouting, analyzing statistics, and conversations with player development personnel and professional scouts inside and outside of the organization. Rk Name POS Current Future Ceiling Risk ETA 1 Jackson Holliday SS 45 65 70 Low 2024 2 Samuel Basallo C 35 65 75 High 2025 3 Coby Mayo 3B 45 60 70 Low 2024 4 Heston Kjerstad OF 45 55 60 Low 2024 5 Colton Cowser OF 45 50 55 Low 2024 6 Joey Ortiz SS 45 50 55 Low 2024 7 Enrique Bradfield Jr. CF 30 50 55 High 2025 8 Dylan Beavers OF 40 50 55 Medium 2025 9 Chayse McDermott RHP 45 50 55 Medium 2024 10 Mac Horvath 3B 30 50 55 High 2026 11 Connor Norby 2B 40 50 55 Low 2024 12 Braylin Tavera OF 25 50 60 Extreme 2027 13 Cade Povich LHP 35 45 55 Medium 2024 14 Luis Deleon LHP 25 45 60 Extreme 2026 15 Joshua Liranzo 3B 20 50 60 Extreme 2028 16 Jackson Baumeister RHP 30 45 50 High 2026 17 Thomas Sosa OF 25 45 60 Extreme 2027 18 Seth Johnson RHP 30 45 50 High 2025 19 Leandro Arias SS 20 45 50 Extreme 2027 20 Luis Almeyda SS 20 45 50 Extreme 2028 21 Trace Bright RHP 40 45 45 Medium 2025 22 Carter Baumler RHP 25 40 50 Extreme 2026 23 Max Wagner 3B 35 45 45 Medium 2025 24 Jud Fabian OF 30 40 45 High 2025 25 Creed Williams C 30 40 45 High 2026 26 Kiefer Lord RHP 30 40 45 High 2026 27 Juan Nunez RHP 30 40 45 High 2026 28 Matthew Etzel OF 30 40 45 High 2026 29 Francisco Marao LHP 20 40 50 Extreme 2028 30 Brandon Young RHP 35 40 45 High 2025 31-50 Prospects 51-75 Prospects 2022 Top 75 Prospects List Prospect Grading System: Grade Hitters Starters Relievers 80 HOFer HOFer #1 75 Top 1-2 Top 1-2 #1 70 Top 5 Top 5 #1 65 All-Star All-Star #1-#2 60 Plus #2-#3 Elite Closer All-Star 55 Above AVG #3-#4 Mid-Closer 50 AVG Regular #4-#5 Low-Closer/Elite Setup 45 Platoon/Utilty #5-Swingman Setup 40 Bench Up/Down Middle/Long relief 35 Up/Down Emergency Up/Down 30 Org (AA/AAA) Org (AA/AAA) Org (AA/AAA) 25 Org (AA) Org (AA) Org (AA) 20 Org (A Ball ) Org (A Ball) Org (A Ball) 2022 Top 75 Prospects

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/12/2023-9-prospect-chayce-mcdermott-sp/ Probably the pitcher that upped his prospects status the most in 2023, this hard throwing right-hander may have a legitimate shot at sticking as a starter if he can continue to improve his command, but could end up in Baltimore's 2024 bullpen. Chayce McDermott Throws: Right Age (as of Jun 30th) : 24 2023 Level: AA/AAA Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 60/65 Slider: 50/55 Sweeper: 45/50 Curveball: 55/60 Splitter: 40/50 Command: 40/45 Pitch Velo Spin Vert Horiz Total % Strike% Whiff% CSW% 4-Seam Fastball 93.8 2073 13.9 -6.7 204 53.1 59.3 32.9 33.3 Slider 83.8 2577 36.6 5.5 62 16.2 58.1 33.3 25.8 Sweeper 80.9 2795 39.5 13.5 52 13.5 57.7 30.8 23.1 Curveball 76.1 2837 63.3 10.1 44 11.5 59.1 50.0 31.8 Splitter 84.0 1045 33.6 -9.1 22 5.7 54.6 36.4 22.7 Most Likely Future Role: High Leverage reliever/Closer Ceiling: Mid-rotation starter What we know: Acquired from the Astros in the Trey Mancini trade along with Seth Johnson from Tampa, McDermott has always had the stuff, but it's always been about his command, but that command took a step forward in 2023 and really took off in AAA. His fastball is an above-average offering with low to mid-90s velocities with a low approach angle that allows it to play up. With 16" - 18" inches of vertical break from a low arm slot it sets him up to have the coveted high IVB high VAA fastball which allows him to get an above average Whiff. McDermott offsets this plus fastball with throws three distinct, high-spin breaking balls, all that miss bats. His usage varies from start to start depending on which he commands best that day but the curveball tends to get more swing and miss. He also mixes in a splitter with good vertical movement, but his command of the pitch is not very good. Of course, command of all of his pitches is an ongoing issue for him, as evident from his 5.1 walk/9 though that dropped to 4.3/9 in AAA. He also had a sub-60% strike rate for each pitch. McDermott was hard to hit holding AAA batters to a .156/.268/.266/.534 in 50.2 IP. McDermott certainly has a starter’s repertoire, but lacks a starter’s command right now but that improved. If his command can take another step forward in 2024, he could very well stick as a starter. What we don’t know: Can he find more consistency with throwing quality strikes that he can stick as a starter? Will he be able to give the team a consistent 6 innings or is his best role in the bullpen? He'll pitch at 25-years old next year and the Orioles could use a dominant reliever. Could they decide to move him to the pen or start him back in AAA to work on command and be starting pitching depth. What we think: McDermott still doesn't need to be put on the 40-man roster until December 2024, so the Orioles may decide to leave him in AAA to start the year. Saying that, McDermott could be the right-handed version of DL Hall where a move to the bullpen will make him useful in right away. McDermott seemed to drop his velocity to throw more strikes so it's not known whether a move to the pen will increase his velocity, but he'd probably sit in the mid-90s at least in that role.

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/12/10-prospect-mac-horvath-3b-2b/ The Orioles second round pick in the 2023 draft, this power hitting infielder took to pro ball immediately putting up great offensive numbers in his limited play across the three levels and comes in as the #10 prospect. Mac Horvath Pos: 3B/2B Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21 2023 Level: FCL/A/A+ Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/50 Game Power: 45/60 Raw Power: 55/60 Run: 60/55 Defense: 40/45 2023 Highlights Most Likely Future Role: 1st Division hitter (Defensive position is unknown) Ceiling: 1st Division hitter, occasional All-Star What we know: The right-handed hitting Horvath had a breakout year at North Carolina showing plus pull power, plus speed, and the ability to work counts. He slashed .305/.418/.711/1.129 with 21 doubles and 24 home runs in 292 PAs in his junior year enough to have the Orioles snag him with the 53rd overall pick in the 2nd round. The 21-year old took to pro ball right away slashing .321/.455/.603/1.057 with 7 doubles and 5 home runs over 99 professional PAs over three levels of play ending the year with a taste of High-A in Aberdeen. Horvath has a flyball, pull heavy approach at the plate and will absolutely mash breaking balls left over the plate. There were some concerns over his ability to hit upper velocity and fastballs up in the zone coming out of college and that showed up at times as well during his pro ball time. Time will tell whether that becomes a bigger issue as he rises through the system. Listed at 6-1, 195, Horvath carries his weight well and has plus speed which allowed him to steal 14 bases in 15 tries in just 22 professional games. Defensively he played mostly 3B in college until his junior year when he was moved out to center field at times. With some quickness side to side, the Orioles split his time mostly between second base (10 starts) and third base (9 starts) while also giving him three starts in the outfield (RF/LF). Horvath does move well enough on the dirt, but he struggles at times to throw on the move and his low arm angle (sidearm at times from 2B) causes his throws to tail away from first base. What we don’t know: He made the adjustment to pro ball well, but he did show swing and miss with fastballs up in the zone. If that remains an issue, upper level pitching will exploit that like they did with Jud Fabian so there is some risk to the bat despite the plus power. Horvath has always been a pretty heavy pull hitter so they may work with him to try and use right field more as upper level pitching will give him a healthy dose of away pitches if he doesn't make some adjustments. What we think: The upside of a power hitter with plus speed is why he's on the list this high despite some concerns with his hitting velocity, and whether he can stay on the dirt long term. He'll most likely start 2024 back in Aberdeen with his results deciding on how fast he gets a promotion to Double-A. He doesn't have a ton of outfield experience so the Orioles may split more of his time out in the corners, and maybe even in center field to see how he handles it out there with his plus speed. Horvath is an interesting player with a nice ceiling, but also some risk to his floor if he continues to struggle with velocity.

Lots of ways that Elias can go, but the key is for some of these guys to develop into impact guys or be packaged for impact players.

I prefer not to say as to not to incriminate anyone... or not! lol... But I definitely talk to people across the industry still.

You guys always do a great job of working the thought process or at least guessing along with mine at this point. I will say my top 6 were pretty obvious (though you could argue the order 2-3, and 4-6), after that, they blur for a bit as you can build cases for each over each other. Sometimes it is just a matter of going with ceiling over production at a high level or vice versa. I think there will be a few surprises for people though in the top 20.

Yes, they all still qualify as rookies in 2024 so they are eligible for the list.

Hall had no position, no power, a below average arm, and had a hard time staying healthy since 2021. He was way over drafted in the second round as a small guy who never had a plus tool outside of speed. Cameron and Diaz were good AAA players who will go somewhere and try an organization where they are not buried hard.

Starting on Monday, we'll start releasing the top 30 prospects start with the top ten backwards from ten. Who are the 2023 Orioles #9 and #10 prospects?