Tony-OH

Anyone calling for us to sign a 3B or SS does not understand current options, but 1B, I'd be ok with a big left-handed hitting middle of the order hitter. Mountcastle could then be used for trade bait.

You two do realize that every good young team needs to be offset by talent the organization doesn't have, and that's good starting pitching that can compete with the best. While it's certainly easy to just say, "sit back and enjoy the ride," when that ride hits its bumps with young players, and it will, you want some good professional talent to offset that. This team went into this offseason needing a TOR, a solid major league starter that can eat innings and a middle of the order bat. They traded Lyles for Gibson while every other team in the AL East have added impact talent. The off season is not over, and I'm not saying "woe is us, yet" but you have to be honest, while the Orioles can expect some improvements from Adley and a whole season of Gunnar, they have not improved in any significant way while their direct competition has. It's not over yet, but they are behind, and it seems like a lot of yellow flags that ownership does not plan to increase the payroll significantly. You can be ok with that, and that's ok, but don't try and act like those of us who do see the signs are silly for seeing them.

None of us wants to think the worse. Even after all these years of being a fan of an Angelos-family owned team, not one of us wants to think that the Orioles are not going to spend. Unfortunately, there are a few too many yellow flags and the Orioles losing out on Chris Bassitt on a 3-year contract to Division rival (Blue Jays) should make fans take heed of the warning signs. We know that John Angelos is currently calling the shots, but we also know that he and his mother are being sued by his brother Louis. We then add in Mike Elias talking back his comment about "taking off", and the fact he no longer is talking about the Orioles adding significant payroll. Now, do all of these add up to an absolute red flag that says the Orioles are not going to sign a significant starting pitcher to a multi-year contract, no, but the signs sure do start to point towards the same 'ol same 'ol for the Orioles when it comes to adding good free agent talent. Now could they still be able to add significant payroll by trading for that starting pitcher, sure. Is the off season over, nope. But watching another Division rival get better while the Orioles treadwater in December is certainly more of the same and doesn't make me feel good at all as an Orioles fan.

Lol, thanks. I had a couple of names for the last spot and I just started to play with the stats available at Fan graphs and Frias stood out. A couple of texts later I had enough info to make him #75. Gotta root for the name though if nothing else!

No, other than he missed the entire 2022 season. Not sure of it was a TJ or not since you know the org doesn't like to give out injury information. Ortiz was a product of the organization's hype machine and how they manipulate many evaluators who put these guys in the top 30 or talk them up without ever seeing them. Coming out of 2020, the local media picked up on the hype Matt Blood and others were pushing about Ortiz and then he basically washed out without ever being very good (at least so far). It's kind of like Top 30 lists that were still putting Luis Gonzalez in Top-30 lists even after he struck out 57 times in 149 PAs in the FCL. Now saying that, Maikol Hernandez taught me a bit of a lesson in putting him too high after he signed and even leaving him on the list last year after he flunked the DSL the year before. I've been much more cautious on Braylon Tavera despite the high bonus due to that lesson. I've found K rate's, walk rates, swinging strike %, along with GB rates and LD rates are things to really keep an eye on with these young players. Together they give you some insights on their potential.

I've heard this a few times about catchers sitting in the middle of the plate and then move as the pitchers are pitching, and I'm still not sure I like it. It does make some sense why the PBs are higher at the lower levels since pitchers typically have better command the higher they move up. Good stuff overall though.

Visual representative of who's left as of today.

I think you are thinking of Luis Otiz. Luis DeLeon is a new guy on the scene with some upside.

Showalter could have been higher based off his scouting reports, but with no pro stats to work off of, he'll need to show what he can do next year to get higher.

I wanted to really like him too, but after watching him in his debut, I went away very unimpressed with the stuff. It's certainly a unique angle and it's worth seeing what he can improve upon under an offseason with the Orioles development, but for now, he's going to have to earn his way on next season.

There is a huge difference between the Amateur draft and the international signing class. Let's start in the DR where top talent is brought to teams for workouts as early as 13 years old. Teams have academies where they try and get as much talent as possible to attend in hopes of getting them excited about playing for the organization. By 14-15 years old, many of the top talent have "agreements" in place with teams and while they are not binding until they officially sign, teams start to figure out where their budget will be spent two years out. That means they are making decisions on kids that would be High school Freshmen or Sophomores. Now add in the political turmoil in Venezuela and you have some kids that are malnourished or unable to be seen as much as the DR kids. Still, the top kids still are typically signed to agreements way before they officially signed in January of their 17th birthday year. So considering all that, you can see why it's a pretty big crap shoot and why you get late bloomers who signed for relatively little, but end up the much better prospects. There are 9 DSL players in the top 75 and three in the top 30 who haven't even reached the states yet. That shows the Orioles are starting to identify good tools and players that can have some initial success. Now, most likely, at least half may not be on this list next year if they implode in the FCL like Hernandez did, but it does show the Orioles (Koby Perez) are doing a pretty good job of identifying talent down there. Now the proof will be in the pudding when one of the international players makes an impact at the major league level or is traded for major league ready talent.

Feliz just doesn't have the consistent velocity or that height/angle Bautista throws from. The numbers were really good, but I need to see it work against AA/AAA hitters before I believe too much.

The organization is looking for pitchers with high spin rate fastballs and breaking balls or at least good pitch shapes for the breaking balls. I've also heard things about the industry looking at low 3/4 fastball guys saying they play up from that angle.

When they were all healthy in 2021, I liked Young much more than Peek or Brnovich. It was hard to get much off Young or Brnovich due to the injuries early on and Peek was more of the same for me.

Obviously at this point do not get too caught up in the rankings but here are the 25 players we will cover. 51. Reed Trimble – OF (FCL/A-): Switch-hitter who was the Orioles 2nd round pick in 2021, Trimble has struggled to stay healthy or show much game power in games. It’s too early to completely discount him as a prospect, but he needs a big year next year to stay a priority play. 52. Ryan Watson – RHP (AA/AAA): 24-year old right-hander split his season between Bowie and Norfolk and actually won the Orioles minor league pitcher of the year. While Watson sits 93-95, he doesn’t eally have an out pitch and the thought is maybe his stuff will tick up in a relief role. 53. Ignacio Feliz – RHP (A+): Right-hander with a fastball that can sit 93-95, t97, Feliz has command issues he needs to overcomes and while his slider can flash average, it’s inconsistent. His change is also not a very good pitch so he’s a candidate for relief if his stuff or command doesn’t improve. 54. Stiven Acevedo – OF (CPX/A): Only 19-years old, Acevedo found the Carolina League too tough in his first go around, but he’s got a good frame to put on muscle and he’s athletic with loose swing that could end up generating good power if he can put it together. Basically a toolsy athlete that will most likely repeat Delmarva next year and should be watched. 55. Andrew Politi – RHP (AAA): The 26-year old strike thrower was taken by the Orioles in the Rule 5 draft and should get an opportunity to compete for a relief spot. His stuff is pretty average overall, but dominated AAA batters for a .137/.225/.218/.442 over his last 37.1 innings pitched last year. 56. Zach Peek – RHP (AA): A four-pitch strike-thrower with a 90-92 MPH fastball, Peek worked more off pitchability than stuff. Unfortunately he suffered an elbow injury and underwent Tommy John surgery last summer and will miss most of 2023. 57. Greg Cullen – 2B/3B (AA/A+): Left-handed line drive hitter who can spray the ball all over the field and gets on base, but doesn’t have much power. There are mixed reports on his defense at 2B, but he doesn’t move very well side to side and has a below average arm. 58. Chris Vallimont – RHP (AA/AAA): Right-hander acquired on waivers from the Twins this past season, Vallimont brings a 92-94, t95 fastball to the mound. His best offspeed pitch is his changeup that has good drop and fade and works well against lefties. He needs to improve both his slider and curveball, neither are consistently average offerings. 59. Yennier Cano – RHP (AAA/MAJ): The 4th pitcher acquired in the Lopez trade, Cano is a power sinker, slider, changeup guy who really struggled with his command in his major league time last year. Raw stuff can flash plus but he lives too much in the middle of the plate and needs to find consistency. Threw an immaculate inning in AAA last year. 60. Logan Gillaspie – RHP (AAA/MAJ): A 4-pitch reliever with a mid-90s fastball, you would think he’d be higher on this list. Unfortunately none of his pitches really miss bats much and he doesn’t have a go to strikeout pitch limiting his role to middle relief. 61. Zach Showalter – RHP (DNP): The Orioles 11-round pick never pitched professionally after being drafted and signed for an overslot 440K. He’s a low ¾ guy with a low 90s fastball that has touched 94-95 this spring. Shows a tight 80’s curveball as well. Decent arm to hope upon out of high school. 62. Connor Gillespie – RHP (A+): Short right-hander with a 89-92 MPH fastball, good slider, as well as curve and change. He’s going to have to prove it on the way up and needs a jump in velocity. 63. Nolan Hoffman – RHP (AA): Low-side arm righty with a sinker, slider change repertoire. Creates a lot of groundballs (64.7%) but the question is will that translate against upper-level pitching. He does have a decent change to defend against lefties which gives him a better chance. 64. Doug Hodo – OF (CPX/A): The Orioles 6th round pick that hit .319/.418/.532/.950 in 340 PAs at Texas University but didn’t do much in his first taste of pro ball. Decent defensive outfielder range wise but doesn’t have a strong arm so may be limited to left field. 65. Luis Valdez – 2B/CF (A/A+): Probably the fastest guy in the system stole 71 bases on the year and put up a .339 on base percentage between Delmarva and Aberdeen. No power though and he should probably burn his infield mitt. Wasn’t great in the outfield either so will need to find some kind of defensive value to sniff the major leagues. 66. Isaac Bellony – OF/1B (A/A+): Athletic outfielder/first baseman that hit well in Delmarva as a 20-year old, but found High-A to be very difficult. Gave up switch hitting and now hits left-handed full -time. Needs more game power to become interesting. 67. Raylin Ramos – OF (DSL): Physically ahead of his 17-year old counterparts, 6-1, 180 pound right-hnded hitting outfielder has a nice professional debut. Slashed .289/.359/.410/.769 with 15-21 BB-K ratio. Has a good arm out in right field as well. 68. Isaac De León –1B/3B (A/A+): The Orioles have given him ample opportunity to prove he doesn’t belong on the left side of the infield where his inconsistent hands and arm accuracy leave a lot to be desired. Hit decent in his first taste of Delmarva though he needs to tap into his game power more. Since he needs to play 1B to be effective, it puts a lot of pressure on his power to develop. 69. Donta Williams – OF (A+/AA): Light-hitting outfielder who does a good job working counts and getting on base via walks, but a lack of power limits his upside. Good defensive outfielder with enough speed to cover center field. There are some concerns that he struggles with velocity. 70. Anthony Servideo – INF (CPX/A): It’s hard to know what to make of Servideo since he’s never been really healthy since he’s been in pro ball. Came out of college with a good defensive profile and an emerging bat, but he has not showed much as a pro. Next year will be a make or break year with him. 71. Thomas Sosa – OF (DSL): Talented outfielder with good raw power, but too much swing and miss. Never really got on track as a 17-year old last season, but he has enough tools to keep an eye on in 2023. 72. Peter Van Loon – RHP (A+): Big, 6-foot-5, 230 pound plus right-handers with a 93-94 MPH fastball, curve, slider and change. Nothing stands out stuff wise, but he has enough pitchability to keep an eye on in case he improves his pitch shapes. Could also get an up tick in velocity if he moves to the pen. 73. Reese Sharp – RHP (A): 20th round pick has more stuff than results. Throws 95-96 MPH with a pretty good curveball and supposedly a change that he can use on occasion. Has a long way to go with his command but he’s a good arm. 74. Kyle Brnovich – RHP (AAA): Was moving quickly through the system despite having no plus pitches but suffered the dreaded elbow injury and had season ending Tommy John surgery after just two starts at Norfolk. Won’t pitch until mid-season next year and will be 25 years old so it really depends on what he looks like when he comes back. 75. Harif Frias – RHP (DSL): 6-foot-4 beanpole that may have finally started to grow into his body a bit. Uses a 92-95 MPH fastball and slider to dominate DSL hitters. Put up a 14.6 K/9, 1.71 FIP, and an amazing 45.2% swinging strike %. Held batters to a .202/.272/.226/.498 slash line and gave up only 3 extra base hits. Will pitch at 22-years old next season so he could jump to Delmarva and see how he fairs.

I'll move it soon and pin it there.

I'll be finishing it off with 51-75 shortly.

As always, don't get too caught up in the the rankings at this point. As deep as the system is there are still interesting guys we haven't covered so lets look at the 31-50 prospects. 31. Carlos Tavera – RHP (A+): The 23-year old righthander may have been forgotten a bit due to his injury plagued 2022 season that was cut short by the end of July, but he misses bats and has three solid pitches. Tavera’s best pitch is his changeup it may have the best changeup in the system. He pairs it with a 93-95 MPH fastball and a slider that can flash average, but is his 3rd right now. Put up a 32.9% K% and a 15.6% swinging strike percentage, but he struggles with his consistency. If he can stay healthy and can find more consistency he has a starter ceiling, but may be better in a reliever role overall. 32. Silas Ardoin – C (CPX/A): The Orioles 4th round pick in the 2022 draft, Ardoin is considered a plus defender behind the plate but also a guy with an improving bat. Didn’t hit much in his professional debut, but did slash .271/.391/.513/.904 with 12 homers and 20 doubles in 294 PAs at Texas University in his junior year. Has a back up vibe if his bat doesn’t translate, but could potentially have a starting catcher upside if the bat comes around. 33. Maverick Handley – C (AA): Finally got out of Aberdeen and put up career highs hitting, slashing .236/.352/.417/.769 in 308 PAs in Bowie. Considered a plus defender behind the plate, his caught stealing percentage went down to 29% and he committed a career high seven passed balls in his 68 games behind the plate. Has a backup catcher ceiling and should start the year in Norfolk (AAA) next year. 34. Juan De Los Santos – RHP (A): The 6-2, 250 pound right-hander sits 93-96 MPH and can touch 98-99 at times. He offsets that velocity with a slider, curveball and change though none are average major league pitches at this time. The slider is his best offspeed offering and he may be better suited in relief role ultimately. He’ll start next season at Aberdeen. At 21-years old. 35. Jean Pinto – (RHP) (A+): Short right-hander’s stuff didn’t play quite as well against High-A hitters but still missed bats with a slider and split-change that can each flash plus. His change is a weapon against lefties, but needs to find consistency in his slider. Walk rate shot up with is a bit of yellow flag. Needs to prove he can find more consistency and better command while in AA next season. Pitches much better in relief and that could be his best role. 36. John Rhodes – (OF) (A+/AA): In his first full minor league season, this former 3rd round pick showed the ability to get base, but struggles to find his game power and hit just five home runs in 352 PAs between Aberdeen and Bowie. More of a line drive hitter and probably needs to make some swing adjustments to get more lift consistency. Decent defensive corner outfielder. Has a 4th outfielder vibe, but played at 21-years old last year so still has a chance to be more. 37. Brandon Young – (RHP) (AA): Would have been a shoo-in for the top 30 had he not gone down with an elbow injury early in the season. Ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss some of next season but could be back by mid-season. Young has four pitches that he can throw for strikes with his fastball (92-94, t95) and changeup being his best offerings. He works his fastball well up in the zone and at six foot six, he looks like he gets good extension which may help his fastball play up and contribute to a good amount swings and misses. His change has good drop and arm side run giving him a weapon against lefties. He also throws a mid-70s curveball and low 80’s slider. 38. Justin Armbruester – (RHP) (A+/AA): The 6-foot-4, 235 pound right-hander with a 92-95 MPH fastball, slider and below average change. His slider can flash solid average or even plus on occasion, but its not consistent and not sure it’s a pitch that will miss major league bats. He gets some swing and miss with the fastball up in the zone, but he can get barreled when he makes mistakes. His changeup must improve in order to give him a weapon against lefties who hit him pretty well. Probably more of a middle reliever, but if his changeup can come around he might end up a 5th starter. 39. Cade Strowd – RHP (A+): When you talk about raw stuff, This 6-foot-2 right-hander brings some of the best in the organization. Fastball can sit 95-96 though when he came back from a mid-season injury, he was sitting 96-98, touching 99 mph. Throws a hard slider at 87-89 that will flash plus and even has a high rate curveball. So why is he 39 on this list? Command is something that needs to improve and he’s been used only as 1-2 inning reliever and he missed time last season due to injury. Without a doubt, he’s a guy to keep an eye on next year at AA. 40. Raul Rangel – RHP (CPX/A): Tall lanky right-hander that had a bunch of nagging injury that cost most of his 2022 season. Fastball can sit 92-95 and there may be more in there once he fills out a bit. Shows a real good change and will use his slider well against lefties. This is all about projection and we’re giving him a mulligan for last year. 41. Xavier Moore – RHP (A): No one put up more dominant numbers this season than this 23-year old did, but gets most of his success with a plus almost bugs bunny change up that give left-handers a fit. He does have a slider and a 91-94 MPH fastball as well, but the question is whether his repertoire will work with better more mature hitters. We’ll find out next year in AA. 42. Moises Chace – RHP (A): Pitched at just 19-years old last year in A ball, holding his own against mostly older competition. Throws 91-94 MPH, with a decent slider and change. Obviously with a 6.3 BB/9, command is an issue and that will determine is outcome. 43. Luis DeLeon – LHP (DSL): 6-foot-3, 170 pound lefty with a 89-93 MPH, and a feel for the curveball and change. Missed a ton of bats, but will pitch at 20-years old next year and has not pitched in the states yet. Scouts seem to think there’s more in the tank velocity wise, but the question is will he be able to command? 44. Juan Nunez – RHP (FCL/A): Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, brings a fastball that sits 94-96, but can touch 98 on occasion. His best offspeed pitch is his slider, though he also has a curveball and change. Has a long way to go command wise, but when he’s on, he has a starter’s repertoire. 45. Alfred Vega – RHP (FCL): Picked up in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft from the Yankees, the 21-year old Vega has a 92-95 t97, fastball, two breaking balls and feel for a change. Has a lower ¾ release that allows his fastball to play up a bit. He’s a scrawny late bloomer who may have more in that arm. 46. Collin Burns – SS (A+): Above average defense at SS is his calling card along with the ability to play effectively at 2B. The stick is ok, but a little light giving him a utility possibility since he hits left-handed and has average wheels. 47. Deivy Cruz – LHP (CPX/A): At just 18-years old, this left-hander shows four pitches and pretty solid feel for pitching. He’s a little guy so there may not be a lot more in the arm, though his 91-93 MPH fastball is not too bad. While he can miss bats, it’s more because of his ability to mix pitches than quality of stuff. His command needs to improve as well, but he’s got youth on his side. 48. Creed Willems – C/1B (A): His first full professional system was not very good, but he did slash .284/.355/.494/.849 over his last 93 PAs. The left-handed hitter didn’t show the power that was expected and struggles to hit lefties. Defensively he moves well behind the plate, but his receiving and blocking need improving and he only threw out 22% of runners attempting to steal. He was one of the youngest players in the league so don’t give up on him yet. He’ll probably repeat with Delmarva in 2023. 49. Juan Rojas – LHP (FCL): Acquired in the Jorge Lopez deal, this short, young pitchability lefty missed some bats in the Florida Complex League with his ability throw multiple pitches for strikes. Similair to Deivy Cruz but Cruz is more athletic. 50. Cristian Benavides – SS (DSL): Young athletic SS who has a good chance of sticking at SS according to scouts who saw him in his first professional season in the DSL. Put up high line drive rates but also high swinging strike % rates so it’s unclear how that will work when he gets over to the states. Despite the good LD rate, only had 8 extra base hits to include two homers. Worth keeping an eye on though in 2023.

There are very few "sure things" like Adley and Gunnar so at some point the team has to decide if they think a player's minor league production an skills will translate. The absolute only way to know if a player can hit major league pitching though is by playing them regularly at the major league level. This is why I shrug my shoulders when I see people on this board trying to judge Stowers off his stats last year with the Orioles when he was criminally sat on the bench in favor of playing a washed up Aguilar. I don't think stow4ers and Vavra are the same kinds of players. In my mind Stowers is an everyday guy that should be used that way next year between RF, LF on occasion, and DH along with Santander.

It's hard to really say what Elias is talking about, but the organization is not treating Stowers like "a guy". I get Vavra since his defensive and power limitations makes him probably a decent utility guy off the bench at best. Stowers though, I just don't get. Does he have holes in his swing, sure, but I've seen him look terrible two times in a row on the same pitch an then when the pitcher goes in there the 3rd time he hits the ball about 115 MPH for about 430 feet. Stowers really did a nice job cutting down the K's last year and while I don't think he's going to be a big time average guy, he's going to be a 30+ homer, .340 OBP guy. He should be in the rotation between RF and DH with Santander. If he does get close to 500 PAs next year, that's poor on the Orioles.

I thought about Stowers when I did the list and I would have had him right after Cowser at 9. I have give Cowser the nod for his defense and his ability to draw more walks overall. It's close though because Stowers doesn't have a platoon issue like Cowser. It's a toss up in my mind and you take what you value most. Me, Cowser brings a significant defensive advantage in the corners and can legitimately play center field right now, but won't be great out there and will grow out of that as he loses foot speed due to his size.

Lol.. thanks

Thanks, appreciate it! It should be much easier with this way then when we had the old ccbill.

Tough grader or are you an easy grade?

I was speaking on his return for relievers so I probably should not have included Santander in there. I'm not saying Elias is a bad trader, I'm just saying he hasn't proved himself a good trader either. Bradish looks like a keeper for Bundy, but I would have hope he would have hit on guy like Bundy since he had starting pitching value and cheap controllability. So let's give him a win for Bundy. Losses for Bleire and Castro and a incomplete but looking like a D for Givens. Iglesias, Lopez and Mancini's are incomplete.