Tony-OH

Ortiz could play 2B right now and be worth 2 WAR just on defense alone.

The problem with that thinking is we now evidence with Odor, Chirinos (to a lesser extent) and Aguilar that they don't always know better. I had the same thoughts about them initially, but I could not understand the Odor signing and thought they would just kick the tires. Instead, he was the full time second baseman all season. I clearly don't like this signing, but I do think they must have a different evaluation system then we have through statcast and his production. My issue is Elias is stubborn when it comes to his guys/signings. He'll keep sending his guys out no matter how much every metric says he shouldn't. Last year he played Odor and Aguilar when they should not have been playing for no other reason then he was his guys. Same thing with Rio Ruiz when they amazingly started him at 2B with barely any experience. ] I'm getting to the point that Elias/Sig are playing this game of "I'm smarter than the rest of you" and that includes other GMs. This offseason is clearly not over so we can't grade this offseason, but so far, their signings leave a lot to be desired and certainly do not move the needle much for a team that overachieved last year. Also, they are squashing out the regular fans excitement. for next year. They had the perfect opportunity to make a splash with a #1-#2 starter or MOO, but so far they got another #4-#5 option and slow, slap-hitting 2B/OF who happens to bat left-handed.

Like Wacha?

Shhh, ad rates are high in December because of Christmas! lol

Some really outstanding thoughts ad insights in your first post. Welcome and sorry for the delay in getting you approved. There is little doubt Elias has changed the culture within the organization and that old school was mostly discarded for new school ways and thoughts. I think we all see what he's done to help facilitate that change in how the organization is viewed across baseball, at least from a baseball operations standpoint. He's at a crossroads though and going into uncharted areas when it comes to taking that team from "on the cusp" to becoming a true contender going into a season. His start through the free agency portion has been less than stellar which can be read in the other threads. Elias has to show he and his staff can identify major league talent that's affordable within his budget, but also what make sense with the talent that is major, or nearly major league ready. While Elias has shown the ability to move players up to AAA pretty quickly, outside of the superstar prospects, he has shown much faith in the players he brought up through the system and went with old school guys like Odor, Chirinos and Aguilar when it was clear to most everyone else they were no longer major league quality players over young players like Stowers, Vavra and probably a handful of better backup catcher options through the season. It's going to be interesting to see how Elias continues to operate and whether he has some aces up his sleeve trade wise, but for now, the early results of when to identify that your team is a contender and how to augment that has been a fail for him. Saying that, he's still got time to learn and improve, but no one should give him the benefit of the doubt that he knows what he's doing at this stage because he's never done this before. Some guys are great at rebuilding systems and others can take that next step and augment that talent by identifying and acquiring impact players that make the team a true contender.

The only thing crazy is that there actually is a debate on this signing. I don't think people understand that we are getting into a role as a GM that Elias and his team has never done. After he traded away two players at the trading deadline (right thing to do) last year, his team out performed most expectations and kept in the wildcard hunt behind the improvements in the starting rotation led by Kremer and Bradish. What did he do to give it a shot, he signed a washed up recently released Aguilar and benched his rookie who had great numbers against lefties in the minors despite being a left-handed hitter. So not only did Aguilar unsurprisingly fail to help, he wasn't even able to evaluate Stowers as a full-time hitter against both righties and lefties. So he failed to make the team better, and he failed to evaluate players at the major league level. Now we have him overpaying for a player that I can't imagine had much of a market after last season and seemingly disregarded his current metrics with bat and running speeds. just like he overlooked Aguilar's declining metrics and his lack of success against righties or lefties prior to being released by the Marlins. To me, this is concerning.

Look at the bright side, you actually get a one point of rep for my laughing. You conveniently didn't answer my question. I asked specifically what magic have the Orioles done with swing changes at the major league level that makes you think they can suddenly make Frazier a better hitter? I'll wait. As for Mountcastle, I'm very aware of Mountcastle's expected stats, his barrel percentages and EV. I'm also aware of his long cold streaks and his almost other-wordly inability to stop swinging at pitches out of the strikezone and his poor BB% and OBP. I would imagine that Mountcastle and Hays would be very different hitters had they come up through the systems learning about swing decisions, but I'm starting to believe it's not a skill that can be easily instituted once players have reached the major leagues. That brings me back to Frazier. Just give me a few examples how the Orioles have made some swing changes to a major league hitter and made him better. Hmm, Odor? Nope. Aguilar? Nope. Franco, nope. Iglesias? Well he amazingly must've forgot when he left so I'm just going to say he got on a heater over a short season vs him making swing changes. Look, if you can convince me the Orioles have some magic swing change source then great, that's see if it works on a 31 year old guy with EVs like Chirinos. At the end of the day, if you want to point towards successful changes by the Orioles coaching staff, look at Holt and the pitchers because Kremer and Bradish were rebuilt by him. Unless I'm missing something, I haven't seen the same at the major league level with established major league players.

But literally Elias just signed a hole. And instead of it being an Odor $700K hole, it's now an $8 million hole. What trade is going to happen that will make you happy he's here? There is no situation where signing Frazier to be an everyday player on a contending team makes sense and I don't know what trade would suddenly change that unless that trade included sending Frazier to the other team.

I've been very clear. I call every situation as I see independently. You can see multiple posts from me giving him credit for the draft and development improvements, use of analytics by coaches and players at the major and minor league levels and for the Orioles international efforts led by Koby Perez. I even said I didn't have an issue with the Gibson signing if it was also was matched by a #1 or #2 starter acquisition. So unlike some, I'm not all one way or the other. Every person has their strengths and their weaknesses, as well as every system. I think we're beginning to see the weaknesses in the Elias regime when it comes to using his minor league talent outside of his obvious studs (Adley/Gunnar/GRod) at the major league level, and how to properly evaluate the FA market. He seems to not understand the need for this team to get fans excited now that the team is getting close. And any system that determined that Frazier was worth $8 million to be a starter on a 2023 Orioles team should be taken and thrown in the trash along with the analysts that coded or came up with that assessment. If it Sig's computer, then it's time for Sig to go back to aerospace engineering.

It was ridiculous to think otherwise. The Orioles do not give $8 million to backups or utility players. The buck stops with Elias, so at the end of the day, he feels Frazier is an everyday player on the 2023 Orioles between 2B,LF,RF.

Absolutely. I would pay the fines and bonuses that equal up to $7.25 million to steal some top rated DR talent and then give his PA to Urias/Westburg/Ortiz/Vavra this season. Much better way to use the limited resources.

This is honest question. Did Elias sign an autograph for you or something or do you know him personally?

Who did the Orioles bring in at the major league level and made swing adjustments that made them a significantly better hitter with less than 5 percentile EVs. What magic pixie dust do you believe the Orioles possess that works on major league hitters and what players have they improved? Why doesn't that dust work on Mountcastle and Hays?

Ok, so you think a guy who has no power, no speed, a .310 OBP over his last 850+ PAs should get PAs and you could care less about PAs for Stowers and Westburg. Gotcha. I'm going to make this easy and just say I've proved my point in the other threads or why I disagree. On the bright side for you, Elias certainly agrees with you! On the bad side, an analytically driven GM like Elias made this move. As for the $8 mil, yes, I do think this could limit who they acquire through trade because I do believe Elias was given a tight budget despite all the Disney money that all the other teams are spending.

You are using statistics from over three years ago to make a point about a player entering his early 30s. Your only other stats you used was saying he was good in 2021, but that was shown that he had good 1st half that was drive by extremely high BABIP. Since July 16, 2021 (starting of 2nd half 2021), Frazier has slashed .247/.307/.317/.624 in his last 853 PAs. When you combine that with the slower speeds, and think you see an obvious age decline for a player who was on the tail end of his "peak years" between 27-31. Thanks for correcting me on the age for next year though.

That's ridiculous. You don't want to "waste your time' because you have no evidence. It's all on "hope". The reason why people have made up their mind is because we've done the research and the evidence shows this is a bad move. It's not personal against Frazier or Elias or anyone else. Hell, I would have love to have found something in the stats and metric that would have suggested I was wrong or missing something. Nope, the only thing the supporters have of this move is "Hope". Well we all hope he does well, but the analysis of the statistics and metrics show it to be a long shot and considering the current options the team had at 2B, unnecessary especially for the price.

Well that happens and I try not to let it happen here. Sure, people may be upset if they are labeled fanboys and sycophants, but when your entire arguments is based on Elias must know best, when we're literally doing the statistical based analysis that suggests it's the wrong move, then I think you have to own up to the label. Saying that, I'm going to tone that down because it does not lead to good conversation. My biggest issue with the folks defending this move is they haven't shown statistically why this is going to work and why he's worth $8 million dollars. Besides hope, why do we expect a 31 year old slap hitter to suddenly to better in 2023 when besides a BABIP drive good 1st half in 2021, he hasn't been good since 2019 when he was 27 years old?

This is really the crux of it all isn't it? You don't like the signing, but you HOPE Elias has reasons for what he did. That's pretty much the best defense I've heard so far for this signing. It's not just you of course, we have several posters saying the same thing. What annoys me is how you guys are going off of "HOPE" while the rest of us are providing statistically backed concerns over this move and some posters are poo-pooing it over HOPE. We all hope it works out, but I'm not going to sit back and just think, Elias knows more than me so I'll just accept everything he does as the right thing. At the end of the day, I criticize when he needs to be criticized and I give him props for when I think he does things well. I had zero issues with the Gibson signing though I would have liked to have seen a better pitcher paired with his signing. I think Elias drafts and develops well. I like what Koby Perez is doing with the international program. Saying that, I have issues with how they handled Stowers last year, the signing and playing of Aguilar last September, the playing of Odor from about August on, and now this mess of a signing. Hope is for fans. Having statistically backed discussions over the validity of moves are for Hangouters!

It is literally fascinating watching people so caught up in Elias that they are actually trying to defend this move. Biggest joke of all has to be the people saying the money doesn't matter and that it won't stop them from doing anything else. Right, because this organization has given you every reason to think they will spend at will to add impact talent, lol. Sure, they just spent 40% of their offseason additions to payroll on a platoon, slow, slap hitting second baseman but hey, they can just bench him if he stinks again because you know, this team can just eat money. lol And by the way, I'm going to start dinging people rep who say stupid uneducated things that a simple perusal through Baseball Savant would solve. You can't say "you don't understand why people are saying he's slow" when I'm literally doing the damn homework for you and posting the metrics. This is not some stupid eye test you get from watching him for ten plate appearances but actual metrics taken from statcast. So, while its your right to think everything Elias does is right, I'll admit to losing respect for you as a knowledgeable Hangouter if you can't do simple research or analyze the statistical information available correctly. Feel free to ignore all of the empirical evidence and rely on your fan instincts that all will be well, but here at the Hangout, you need to back that up with facts. What evidence do you have that Frazier will be better this year? Dig into his defense at 2B. That's really his calling card here right? Does he turn the DP really good? Well let's go look at Fan Graphs defensive stats for him at https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adam-frazier/15223/stats?position=2B/OF. His Double play runs above average last year was 0.8 (Odor was 1.6) so it's not like he's a wizard there. Good, but not as good as Odor, which was Odor's only real calling card besides his strong arm for those plays up the middle or in shallow RF (that will no longer be allowed). He put up really good OAA numbers at 2B vs his UZR which ended up very mediocre at 0.1 mainly because their numbers show his range was not good. Now, I'm on record as saying I like OAA for the most part so I'm going to say he's a plus defender at 2B overall. Now is he a game changing defensive 2B that is worth his limited platoon bat? I don't think so. At the end of the day, whether I agree with you or not doesn't matter, but don't put up lazy defenses. This is the Hangout. We expect more. Tell us in numbers why he's good for this team or why the $8 million won't matter. Besides just hoping, why does that not matter? What have the Orioles done of late to show that spending $8 million on a player doesn't matter. What are we missing?

Not surprisingly, his speed has fallen with this decline going from 58.2 percentile in 2020 to 36.3 percentile last year. He's 4.4 to 1B now which put him as a 30 runner. He's always been a low EV guy who slaps the ball around the field but now he's slow on top of it. He can't hit lefties (.210/.286/.290/.576 in 155 PAs last year) so he's a platoon option at best. So let's recap for those who think he just had a bad year and will rebound: EV: 2nd percentile Barrel %: 3rd percentile Hard hit%: 2nd percentile Speed: 30 runner with 36.6 percentile sprint speed Outfield jump: -2.5 per/sec avg Feet covered: 31.7 ft/sec (If qualified he would have ranked 90th best in baseball with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Yadiel Hernandez Positives: He does K much, plays a good defensive 2B They paid $8 million to a slow, slap-hitting, platoon 2B who is 31 years old. Meanwhile the Yankees added another TOR to their team. The Orioles have tread water at best this offseason while the rest of their competition in the AL East has gotten better. Even with trades I don't see how paying Frazier that kind of money makes any sense and probably now limits what contracts they can bring on. I would have been fine with Westburg or Ortiz making major league minimum to start the year at 2b and used that money to go after pitching through trades.

As @DrinkinWithFermi pointed out, he's had one good half a season the last three. So before you start throwing arrows, get your facts straight. You've corrected me on one thing that you were right about, that he just turned 31 vs played at 31 this year. It's hilarious that you think "when everyone thinks one way" you try to dig to see if they are all wrong. Have you ever considered if 90% feel a certain way that there very well be a reason for that? No, you think you are smarter than everyone, just like you think Elias is smarter than every other GM out there and can not make mistakes. You love every prospects, you love every move, and you attack anyone who disagrees with your rosey, pollyanna outlook on everything. So take your arrows and put them away when you think you want to aim them at me, because I've backed up every single thing I've said with statcast information that backs up my concerns over this move.

"Negative stuff" is called reality. Could he be better in 2023 then 2022, sure. Getting better as he gets into his early 30s with declining EVs and Barrell % to 2nd and 3rd percentile levels makes it less likely. In addition, the only position that he plays well (I've already posted his outfield jump numbers and 36th percentile spring speed numbers) is a position that this team already had strength in numbers at for 2023. If you're ok playing over Stowers for those additional PAs you talk about, God bless you, I'm not. This signing was unnecessary and potentially blocks actual prospects (Westburg and Ortiz) from playing 2B while also making Urias positionless. Now could trades be coming that make this make more sense, perhaps, but I still don't see why or how he was worth $8 million. I hope he does well and makes me eat my words because I'd rather the Orioles do well then be right, but this move in a vacuum is terrible and makes me question Elias' ability to add good players to his home grown players in order to be a truly contending team.

I don't think we had any shot as well. There is no way this ownership, and perhaps risk adverse Elias would do something like that. We are not going to be able to outspend the Yankees on a player they want.

Well thank God. I really would not want to see John be able to buy his 12th high rise condo in Nashville!

That really is the kind of contract a young, up and coming team that needs to make a splash for a #1 would want to make. But what do I know.