Tony-OH

Pretty sure it was DeLeon, but I have to check.

It really is hard to get a great feel for these guys in the DSL because you don't know how they will play once they get t full season ball. Some of them will play in the cold or see good offspeed pitches for the first times in their lives, and we never really know how that will affect them. The good news is we're seeing excellent plate discipline by Tavera, which is a great base to start from. I'm not too worried about the power at his age and experience, but obviously you'd like to see him start to impact the ball a little more next year in the FCL. I really wish they would make the FCL a full season league since there is no more Rookie+ leagues. At least these guys would get in 400-500 PAs.

There was one name given to me to keep an eye on from the pitching side but I can't recall right now. When I get home and check my notes I'll let you guys know.

I'm snakebit on these kinds of guys after the failure of Lowther and Wells. Not a lot of belief on him from the scouting side. For me, he has to find a way to throw an effective changeup to even consider having success against major league righties.

The organization has not responded to any of my requests for information on injuries so I've stopped asking. So for now, I have as much information as any of you.

Cesar Prieto Pos: 3B-INF Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23 2022 Level: A+/AA Bio: The Orioles signed this 23-year old Cuban defector for $650k but mostly because they had the most money left after most teams had already promised their allotments for the 2021-22 J2 signing period. Assigned to Aberdeen to start his affiliated professional career despite not playing since 2020-21 season in Cuba, Prieto got off to a red hot start in Aberdeen slashing .340/.381/.619/1.000 with a surprising seven home runs in 105 PAs over 25 games. This got him a promotion to AA where he found the advanced pitchers a lot harder. The left-handed hitter struggled slashing .255/.296/.348/.643 with a 15 BB to 59 K ratio in 389 PAs. He also struggled against southpaws slashing just .221/.256/.361/.616 in 90 PAs. While second base was always considered his best position, being on the same team as Connor Norby for a good bit of season at both levels forced him to play some SS and even more 3B. He’s showed good hands and quickness no matter where he played, but a below average arm really limits his ability to play shortstop in anything but a pinch. Being that this was his first overall season, we have to be careful not to grade him too harshly, but it is worth questioning whether he has enough stick to be an everyday player. He does have some athleticism so perhaps getting some opportunities in the outfield could help him carve out a supersub niche if the stick isn’t enough to be an everyday guy.

Drew Rom Throws: LHP Age (as of Jun 30th): 22 2022 Level: AA/AAA Bio: No pitcher in the system threw more innings than this 22-year old lefty who ended up reaching AAA for seven starts, but overall, it was an up and down year for him. While the K/9 of 10.8 was still very good, Rom’s stuff has just never really taken a step forward and that showed has he faced the better hitters in AA and AAA. While his FIP (3.48) was much better than his 4.43 ERA overall suggesting he was unlucky, it’s hard to look at the stuff and see how it projects in the majors unless he adds something or significantly improves his changeup. Rom’s fastball has never been much to talk about at 89-92 MPH, but he has touched 93-94 on occasional and he gets some swing and miss on the pitch in the upper part of the zone suggesting good spin rates. Rom’s bread and butter pitch are his breaking balls that both can get outstanding horizontal movement and were his go to pitches even to righties when he wanted a strikeout. Depending on the day, the curveball that came in around 79-80, or the slider that sat 84-85, was his pitch if choice. When he was successful, he was able to use them both. Rom could get away with his middling fastball if he had a good changeup, but after years of trying to find a grip he can use effectively, he continues to show little consistent feel for the pitch. If he can ever master the pitch or at least find one that he consistently use against righties, he could end up a back of the rotation starter. The good news with Rom is that he doesn’t panic on the mound and while his walk rate went up this season, it looked to be more about him trying to be too fine with his pitches when he got hit a little. If his change doesn’t come around there is still a chance that Rom could find value as a bulk reliever or even a lefty reliever specialist. Rom will most likely start the year in Norfolk and should make his major league debut at some point depending on team needs and how he’s performing in AAA.

Aron Estrada Pos: 2B Bats: S Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 17 2022 Level: DSL Bio: A $175K signing during the last J2 signing period, this diminutive switch-hitter put up the best offensive numbers of any Orioles DSL player in 2022. An on base machine, Estrada slashed .368/.483/.566/1.049 over 174 PAs leading the organization in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS (1.049), wOBA (.494) and wRC+ (178). His 16.7% walk rate was tied for 2nd and his 13.2% K rate was 3rd in the organization among qualifiers in their league. His 18.8% swinging strike % was best among Orioles DSL players, he never struck out more than once in a game, and he struck out just six times over his last 76 PAs. A switch hitter, Estrada has more pop from the left side, but hit .500 (9-for-18) with seven walks (.643 OBP) and just 1 strikeout as a righthanded batter against lefties. So your question at this point is, why is he just 23 on this list? First, Estrada is listed at just 5-8, 142 pounds so there is not a lot of room for growth onto his frame. He’s a bit of a pull hitter (52.3%), hits the ball on the ground too much (56.1%) and his .412 BABIP indicates that he was a bit lucky on them in the notoriously bad fielding DSL. Speaking of bad fielding, Estrada’s initial scouting report of his shaky defense came true with him committing eight errors in 38 starts at 2B. While he’s a got a long way to go, he’s going to have to improve a lot or find himself out in left field. With average foot speed, Estrada is not going to steal a lot of bases so his hit tool is going to be his calling card to carry him to the big leagues. Just for comparison sake, fellow diminutive Venezuelan Jose Altuve slashed .343/.429/.441/.870 with 28 BBs and 16 Ks in 243 PAs as a 17-year old in the now defunct, but equivalent Venezuelan Summer League. Altuve committed 10 errors in 51 starts at 2B. Size and defensive concerns leave is being a little cautious in his initial ranking on this list, but his offensive prowess last year speaks for itself. He’ll start 2023 in the FCL most likely unless he impresses enough to win a job in Delmarva. Either way, look for him to be pushed aggressively like Frederick Bencosme was in 2022 due to his advanced plate discipline.

Carter Baumler Throws: RHP Age (as of Jun 30th): 20 2022 Level: A Bio: No pitcher at this stage on the list has a much upside as this 20-year old right-hander. Unfortunately, after missing the 2021 season due to undergoing Tommy John surgery, he pitched just 11.2 innings before going on the injured list for the rest of the season with right shoulder inflammation. Didn’t allow an earned run and only allowed three hits and three walks over his first three starts covering nine innings pitched. In his 4th start he allowed three runs, two earned on when lost his control, walking three and allowing three hits before being removed with two outs in the 3rd. He would then be put on the injured list. Before that outing, Baumler showed a nice 92-94 MPH fastball, 12-6 curveball, and a feel to throw a nice change up. He also threw a slider, but it was a below average offering. Batters slashed just .171/.292/.268/.560 against him in his limited innings. Obviously, the issue is that Baumler will be turning 21 next season and has thrown 11.2 professional innings after a truncated senior year of high school in 2020. The upside is there for him to be a nice prospect, but until he puts in a full healthy season, the health concerns will linger. If healthy, Baumler will most likely start 2023 back in Delmarva.

Braylin Tavera Pos: CF Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 17 2022 Level: DSL Bio: Signed by the Orioles during last year’s J2 signing period for the highest bonus ever given to a Latin American player at $1.7 million, this talented young player had a solid first season in the Dominican Summer League. As a 17-year old, this 6-2, 175 pound center fielder really had three separate streaks. He started off the season hot, slashing .298/.421/.468/.889 with both of his home runs, 10 BBs and 19 Ks in 57 PAs over the first 15 games. He then slashed .087/.263/.087/.350, which included an 0-for-26 streak, with no extra base hits, 9 walks and 17 strikeouts, over his next 17 PAs and 14 games. After settling in and making some adjustments, he slashed .303/.489/.349/.837 with 20 BBs and 14 Ks over his last 90 PAs and 24 games. The 17-year old’s 19.5% BB rate was top in the system and his wOBA (.385) was 5th among qualifiers. He does however have some swing and miss in his game (26.8% swinging strike rate and 25.4% K rate), is a bit too pull happy (51.6%) and hits too many balls on the ground (48.9%), but his ability to get on base and work counts at a young age is impressive. Tavera projects to have a above average power even though he was unable to get to it much during his first professional campaign. He’s considered a good defensive outfielder with a solid arm who should be able to stick in center field in the near term, but time will tell whether he has the speed and instincts to stick there long term. He should start next season in the Florida Complex League and has a nice upside but a very low floor.

Frobby must've hit the holiday cheer a little too hard. I'll move this.

Well said. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here at the Hangout. I love my community and thank you all for making this the best community on the internet!

On point. The Orioles clearly like players to get off to good starts at lower levels then aggressively promote them throughout the season. No way anyone can look at the system this yea and say they were being too passive in promotions. Heck, three guys from the draft ended up in Aberdeen for the last week of the season.

Tex signing with the Yankees was heart breaking, until he said he'd always been a Yankees fan. The guy is from Severna Park. Tells me everything I needed to know about a kid who grows up a Yankees fan while living in MD. He was THAT kid. Still don't like him! I mean, it's not at Mu$$ina levels of dislike, but not far.

I'm fairly certain @Sports Guy needed some alone time after that 3-way went through!

I could have went higher, but I just want to see things for myself over a year of pro ball.

His numbers are fantastic for sure. If they were attached to Braylin Tavera's body instead of his 5-8, 140 body, he'd be a top 20 guy already. My other "concerns" are his high GB rate and high BABIP suggesting he got some hits due to shoddy defense. Also, he made a lot of errors at 2B and his defense was a question mark in his initial scouting report when he signed. I also try to remember the Mishael Deson experience. 18-year old who put up these numbers in the FCL last year: AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ .369 .416 .515 .430 147 What I didn't notice that year was his .449 BABIP I got a little too interested him after hearing some good things said about him while in Florida, but then I saw in Delmarva and was like "Blah.. Slow bat, slow twitch guy who hits off his front foot. Long lanky guy who looks a little uncoordinated like he's still growing into his body." Came back as a 19-year old and looked just as bad honestly. I'd take Stiven Acevedo over him anytime, Acevedo keeps disappointing above rookie ball. Back to Estrada though. With the defensive concerns, size and high BABIP, I'm going to take a more cautious approach with him until I see him at at least Delmarva though if his bat is as advanced as it seems, he could get the Bencosme approach and move to Delmarva quicker than the others with more overall tools like Tavera and Amparo.

I'm being a little conservative on him until we see him a full season in pro ball. i know good scouts who really, really liked him coming into last year and were flabbergasted at his offensive year. That makes me think it may have been some kind of injury related thing or maybe he put too much pressure on himself because of the draft and then things snowballed him when he got off to a bad start. I think this is the right part of the list to put him on and I could see moving that ceiling and most likely up if he has a good year.

Certainly understandable. As I stated in another thread, I moved guys in a round the #19 and #20 spots as I did more analysis. I ultimately decided to go with Young's upside at #19 and then Denoyer at #20 because I just like repertoire and the miss he creates in the zone. If I thought for sure he could stick as a starter, he'd be much higher, but that part I need to see next year at AAA. There are still pretty solid guys through #25 on this list that I could have put here and been able to defend the decision.

That miss, which is mostly curveball and change related, is part of the reason why I think his stuff will play. The more I looked into his numbers, the more I liked him and then watching a few games when things worked for him, I saw three average major league pitches. If he was 1-2 inning reliever, I think his velocity would tick up as well, but I'm not sure about how long he needs to recover to pitch again. His quickest turn around to pitch again was six days so if they ultimately think he's a reliever, he needs to be used more often in shorter stings next year. Personally, I'd use him as a starter next year in Norfolk and see how he looks. I'd like to see him built up to throwing 80-100 pitches an evaluate from there. If it's not working, convert him to 1-2 inning stints and pitch him more often to see if he can provide value to the Orioles in a relief role.

Michael was great at this stuff and was able to weed out the fakes pretty quick. Honestly, I never had much of a problem with it as long as it wasn't unfounded BS. But as everyone should know, posting fake or made up "news, rumors, etc" is grounds for dismissal from the board. But as it was mentioned earlier, Elias and company have a pretty tight lipped ship so it's hard for most people to get any "inside" scoop. I stopped trying to get information like this years and years ago because it just wasn't worth the hassle. But, if people want to have fun with stuff they found online (with links) have at it. The community can decide if they find it valid or not.

Actually, I always think for some reason that he's a COVID year FA, but he was signed after the 2019 draft. I fixed that portion of the profile. My apologies. Still, the fact remains that he's not your average UDFA. He's a nice scouting and development story.

I do think we'll see him at some point in 2023, for no other reason than he's on the 40-man roster and we know how Elias and company use their pitchers on the 40-man. Obviously we have to see how Denoyer is affected or not by the major league ball used in AAA, and how his curveball plays there, but I do think he could be a 6th inning guy right now. Could he be more? I think the Orioles will give him time to find out next year. He's still a little inconsistent and if the curve is not working, he doesn't have a ton to defend himself without having good command. I do like the change movement, but he needs to command it better. He's got a Dean Kremer upside, but the delivery and the fact he starts to lose his command around 50-60 pitches suggests multi-inning reliever is his most-likely.

Noah Denoyer Throws: RHP Age (as of Jun 30th): 24 2022 Level: A+/AA Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 50/55 Curveball: 55/60 Change: 45/50 Slider: 40/45 Command: 40/45 Most Likely Future Role: Multi-inning reliever Ceiling: #4 starter What we know: Signed as undrafted free agent after the after the 2019 draft, Denoyer is not your everyday free agent signing. It appears that he’s finally gotten the Orioles attention after they added him to the 40-man roster this offseason instead of risking losing him in the Rule 5 draft. Considering the Orioles used him in bulk relief most of the year getting only three starts in his 14 appearances at Bowie, you would think they weren’t convinced on his prospect status. They should be because he’s been an interesting guy to watch this year develop. His fastball comes in at 93-96 MPH on most days, though he can drop down as low as 92 on occasion. He doesn’t get a ton of swing and miss but he uses it well around the strike zone. His 12-6 curveball is his out pitch and he can get a lot of swing and miss in the zone on the pitch. He'll roll it occasionally, but he can get good late break. He shows some feel for the change-up, but it’s inconsistent. He’ll flash a plus one at times with good arm side run and depth. He can use pretty effectively against left-handers. The slider is his 4th offering and it’s been very inconsistent this year. While Denoyer has the repertoire of a starter, he has a bit of a herky-jerky delivery that helps with some deception, but also can contribute to his inconsistencies from outing to outing. The Orioles only let him throw over 80 pitches in one of his appearances and he usually only threw 3-4 innings. The quality of stuff shows in his 17.4% swinging strike rate that was only behind Nick Vespi and DL Hall among pitchers at AA or AAA. Overall he held batters to a .194/.251/.322/.573 slash line with an impressive 99-17 K-BB ratio in 71.2 IP. What we don’t know: Can he continue to develop the ability to go deeper into a games and become a legitimate starting pitcher candidate? Will he pick up velocity if he pitches 1-2 innings vs the 3-4 he typically pitched last year? What we think: The Orioles thought enough of the 6-5 Denoyer to send him to the AFL to get some of the innings he lost this season while on the IL, and then added him to the 40-man. Denoyer is an interesting guy because the more you watched him this year, the better he got. The Orioles will most likely start him at Norfolk next season and it will be interesting to see if they try to develop him as starting pitching depth, or multi-inning relieve depth. He definitely has a good chance of pitching in the big league next season at some point.

Carter Young Pos: SS Bats: B Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21 2022 Level: FCL/A Tools (current/future value) Hit: 25/45 Game Power: 34/45 Raw Power: 45/50 Run: 50/50 Defense: 50/60 Most Likely Future Role: Utility Ceiling: 2nd Division SS What we know: A 1st round talent going into his junior season at Vanderbilt University, this switch-hitting shortstop put up an extraordinarily disappointing offensive season and followed it up by deciding to head to LSU for his senior season assuming his over a million-dollar bonus demand was not met. The Orioles took a flier on him in the 17th round and then after not being able to come to an agreement with 3rd round pick Nolan McLean, was able to agree with Young on a $1.325 Million bonus. There was talk that Young may have still been experiencing the effects of a shoulder injury the year before, and that’s why he did not hit, but many observers just saw a guy who was completely lost at times this season at the plate. Prior to the injury, some scouts thought Young was a Trea Truner/Dansby Swanson type of talent, but he has a lot to prove to get there. In his pro debut he hung in there but not surprisingly did not jump off to the start as some of the other high dollar draft picks. Saying that, he did collect a few doubles and one homer with Delmarva and his swinging strike rate 8.3% was not bad at all. He hits way too many balls on the ground, and that will be something the organization will try and fix before next season. Defensively, he was one of the top defensive shortstops coming out of college with good range, a strong arm, and steady hands. His defense gives him a pretty high chance of reaching as utility player, especially if his power reemerges at the pro level. What we don’t know: Did the Orioles get a 1st round talent in the 17th round, or was his hitting last season at Vanderbilt a red flag the team should have saw? Can they make the adjustments to get him to realize his promise. There are tools here that give him a nice upside, but he’ll need to show more at the pro level next year before getting to up on his future. What we think: Young could be in the top ten on this list next year or off the list completely. He’ll start the year most likely at Aberdeen allowing Holliday to play SS everyday at Delmarva. He will be one of the more interesting players to follow in 2023 and a true test for the Orioles development staff.