Tony-OH

Well Baumler is #16 and if he pitches next year in Delmarva and looks good, he could jump up quickly. Outside of that, I'd say many of the 1st year guys could make a big jump with a good season. Look at Stowers. I almost didn't even want to put him on the list after watching his first pro season at Aberdeen, but two years later he's top 10. It's so hard to make those evaluations with that early look. I did go back and watch some of the college guys in college to get a better feel, but its still not easy to make an accurate eval on them until we see that first full season.

The honest truth is that I could probably move 21-30 in pretty much any order and build a case.

I wasn't sure there would be much interest after 20 when it comes to order.. I could do one like 21-25 I guess..

Despite my thought that he's best suited as a reliever, I too think he should be given a chance in the rotation next year. I believe all three of them come into camp with a chance to stick in the rotation, though out of all of them I think Baumann has the least chance to stick there and they may want to consider moving him to the pen next season.

I just needed to see more and the injury obviously stopped that. Upside wise, Ortiz still has a chance as an everyday guy, but his OBP dropped a bit in his AA time even though his power went up away from Aberdeen's cavernous power alleys. He doesn't have elite range though so while he can certainly play SS, he'd really be good at 2B. Hopefully he comes back next year healthy and moves up the list.

Honestly, they are similar type prospects. I could have gone with Bautista here and totally been able to support it. I'm going to drop the rest of the guys next week. I haven't decided how yet. Maybe five at a time or maybe two a day again. Depends on how many I finish up this weekend.

Complete through the top 20.

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/11/20-terrin-vavra/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/12/19-joey-ortiz/

Lopez is a reliever for me as well and should have been last year.

Who are the Orioles 2021 #19 and #20 prospects?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/11/18-michael-baumann/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/11/17-kyle-bradish/

I agree. I probably should have caveated that with some AAA time to get a feel for the ball.

Signablility and lack of teams seeing him pitch because of COVID. Some teams also didn't have the background to even know what he wanted to sign because of COVID. Most teams just figured he was going to TCU. The Orioles must've knew his number and pulled the trigger when he was available.

Don't forget the J2 signings in January. The Orioles reportedly are in on several good players. This is their first signing class where they got an actual summer of watching them play and have been around long enough to get in on some of the higher valued players.

BTW, I'm totally fine with people who disagree. I'll bet I have Lowther higher than most anyways, but I just have a feeling he's going to click. Here's when his changeup is good. It's really good when he can keep it in the 81-82 MPH range and he gets decent drop. https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-changeup-good Here's how his fastball plays up despite being 91-92 t93 https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-fastball-strikeouts The curve really has nice finish https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-curveball And the slider is at 81-83 and has nice little bite and drop. https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-slider So as you can see, he can get swings and misses on 4 pitches. That's a starter. He just needs to find consistent command.

Well, the one thing I can tell you is I don't go by how he's treated, I go by what I see on the mound from a guy. I'll admit, he got hit way too hard and too often for sure, but his fastball command was never there until the very end and for some reason they were having him be a fastball changeup heavy guy at first, when his changeup is his 4th best pitch. I get it, I can look at the numbers last year and get down him real quick, but I don't think he was ever right until September and even then he was learning to pitch against big leaguers. Here's what Lowther looks like when he's on: https://www.mlb.com/video/zac-lowther-s-seven-strikeouts?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [675912] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0 Here's him in Bowie in 2019 https://www.mlb.com/video/top-prospects-lowther-bal?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [675912] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0

The new collective bargaining agreement will determine when Rodriguez pitches in the majors. He's ready now.

The guys that were invite to the instructional league from the DSL will be in the FCL next season at the very least.

This is a tough one for you because I have gone back and forth with upside vs guys closer but with less ceilings. This is where you have to ask yourself about the upside of the guys not listed yet. Are there anyone that gets you excited? What do we know about that player? If there are not any super upside players left, who still has a chance to be a solid contributor to a major league team with maybe a little upside to be better? Are there any potential starters left? Of if they can't stick as starters, who has a chance of being a high leverage reliever? From a player standpoint, do they have a big platoon difference? Do they have defensive issues? Do they have a plus tools or just average tools across the board. Do they have any obvious holes in their games? Have they performed well at an age appropriate for their level? Have they performed well in AAA or the majors?

I didn't see an elite defender. He's fine out in LF, but I didn't see the footspeed or jumps needed to stick in center as anything other than a Joey Rickard type of 4th outfielder who can play CF ok. I think McKenna is a better defender. I also think McKenna is a much better hitter overall and I think everyone knows what I think about McKenna at the major league level.

It wasn't a great year for pitching in the organization as a whole. Only Rom and Pinto really stood out as guys who took steps forward outside of Rodriguez and Hall. I did like some things I saw from Bradish at times and then there's Felix Bautista who is suddenly throwing 100 MPH. Kevin Smith was hugely disappointing in AAA. Borderline guys like Vespi, Sedlock and Bishop did well at times. Wasn't overly impressed with most of the arms acquired in the trades outside of Pinto and Bradish. Brandon Young was impressive though as a 1st year guy.

This is where I differ with some other folks including some other prospect analysts. I've always been pretty high on Lowther and I think he's got a starter's repertoire. I also believe he was never in a routine this year thanks the Orioles handling of him this year until September when he pitched better outside of one bad start. While he doesn't present the velocity that Bradish and Baumann can bring, he has more pitches with different breaks and velocity differences than the other two. I'm sur there are going to many lists with Lowther either very low or maybe even off the list thanks to his numbers last year, but when you look at his statcast numbers on his breaking pitches, the extension he gets on his fastball release, I think we see a guy who with regular rest and routine is going to be a starter. Now he's a flyball pitcher in a bad Division for being a flyball pitcher, and that won't help him, but it would not surprise me if he ends up getting traded and becomes a really good starting pitcher in another Division. But even if he sticks here, I can see him as a 4th starter type who is going to give the team a lot of good outings and keep his team in the game more times than not.

Just comes to my view on which ones have a better chance of sticking as a starter.