Tony-OH

Who is the Orioles 2021 #9 prospect?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/02/8-jordan-westburg/

EV typically comes from bat speed and the ability to get the barrel to the ball. Some guys are just able to do so more than others.

I don't think there is going to be much debate on 8 and 9 other than the order between the two. I think #10 will get a wide variety of votes.

I did look at those two but Cowser has such a great hit tool, can run and defend better and Cowser is two years younger. Obviously they are completely different players power wise, but if Cowser can develop Markakis like power, he's a very good bet to become a very good major league player for a long time if he stays healthy.

I didn't say Westburg wasn't vey close either. lol

I didn't really go into it in detail, but here's why I'm not overly concerned about the K's. Stowers swings and misses a lot. There's no denying this and this includes pitches in the zone that he swings through. No one swings harder on just about every pitch. Saying all that, he actually takes some pretty good at bats despite the miss and can make adjustments within games. He's no a pure hacker swinging at pitches all over the place, he's just a guy who looks to have taken the theory that is you swing really, really hard, you may miss pitches, but you also are going to do some damage when you do it the ball. Stowers BABIIPs were high at all three levels he played, and some may say that he was lucky, but I think it's because he hits the ball so damn hard that he does a lot of damage when he connects. His HR/FB% at 30.4% and 28.8% in A and AA are off the charts. Rutschman's was at 16.8% in AA for comparison. Henderson was at 25.8% in Delmarva but dropped to 13.2% at Aberdeen where Stowers put up an otherworldly 30.4%. Now Stowers is three years older than Henderson which is why Henderson is above him, but for damage done once the ball is hit, nobody touches Stowers. The only question I have is will he get even better once he understands what pitchers are doing to him and he learns to lay off pitches he can't hit OR will major league pitchers be able to consistently beat him with the holes in his swing and he ends up a low BA guy with pop? I don't think any player in the Orioles system in my mind made a bigger jump into becoming a potential impact player at the major league level than Stowers did. I may have undercut his ceiling in the rankings but I'd like to see him really hammer AAA pitching before getting too high on him which is why he's where's he's at in the rankings.

Having a player of Westburg's quality still on the board at #8 certainly speaks to the depth of this top 9.

It's very close but because of the total unknowns around Kjerstad, yes, I'd rather have Stowers who I've seen play well at a high level with the top of the chart power. That was one of the reasons I asked that question about if Kjerstad had the season Stowers had, even with the strikeouts, where would have be ranked nationally? If you would have told me Kjerstad played this year (grant it he would be 22 vs 23) and put up the numbers Stowers had, he's probably be ranked number 3 or 4 due to his pedigree coming in. Now Stowers doesn't have that pedigree, even in college so this was a huge leap for him. I love the fact that he hits the ball harder than anyone EV wise and he will take a walk, so it's not like we're talking Mountcastle here. Of all the guys I ranked, he's the one where my inner voice tells me I'm being too cautious with him at 7, but when you take risk, upside, age and success of the guys ahead of him, I just felt like this was the place for him. I was already more aggressive on Mayo than anyone will be so maybe that was the reason I kinda was more cautious with Stowers. It all makes sense in my head when I do it! lol

For me, the top 9 were pretty legit to rank. From 10 on there's a lot of things to consider and really I could start group these guys into groups of things I like and things that concern me. Having 8 to 9 legitimate prospects who could be average to impact major leaguers with a whole host of guys still with some upside to become that is pretty darn good.

I'll be honest, I had considered him higher but dropped him below a few others due to age and his K rate. Henderson is only 20 years old so although he has more things to correct, that has to be taken into consideration and gives him a higher ceiling which is why I ended up going with Henderson over Stowers. Joc Pederson might be a good comp for Stowers but Stowers is a little more athletic and moves better.

Who is the Orioles 2021 #8 prospect?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/02/7-kyle-stowers/

I'm interested in understanding how you think Alex Wells took a step forward this year but Lowther back?

Don't buy the fluff. Nevin is not a real prospect and if he was effective at 3B he would have gotten a lot more looks there and would have been playing in Baltimore this year. He can be DFA'd tomorrow and he will pass through waivers and be outrighted to AAA. While he's not a butcher over there at 3B, he's stiff and will bring little range to the position. He doesn't have the game power to overset a below average hit skill. If you are looking for a place holder, I'd prefer Gutierrez due his defensive abilities. BTW, it's also telling that Nevin played exclusively in LF in his short looks with the Orioles. If you are looking for below average defense and a .630-.660 OPS, Nevin is your guy at the hot corner next year.

He can struggle at times with offspeed and especially left-handed breaking balls. I haven't seen it to the point that I worry that it's a concern, but we'll have a better idea after a full season at Double-A next year.

Sure, but you gotta get something better than a Kevin Smith type of return like they did for Castro and the minor league filler that they go for Bleier.

I'm not trying elude to who is the next pick, but if Kjerstad had the year Stowers had this year, where would he rank?

Lowther is still eligible.

Who is the Orioles 2021 #7 prospect?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/10/31/6-gunnar-henderson/

If gets more than a minor league contract I'd be astounded. He's not a major league player any more.

I'll be honest, I have zero expectations for Hunter Harvey anymore, but, if he was DFA'd by another team, he's the kind of arm I'd be happy to see the Orioles get and stash on the 40-man. Now I haven't done the full analysis of the 40-man with regard to players who need to be protected yet (busy with prospect stuff obviously), but I just don't see him as a guy you just dump unless it comes down to obsoletely needing a spot. Do I expect Hunter Harvey to be in the pen next year? Based off his inability to stay healthy I'd say no, but I also know he has the capability to be an effective reliever so in the off chance he can finally stay healthy, that's one less arm to find and he's cheap and controllable.

Once you see Gunnar's profile it will be more obvious. Hall's control improvements were a factor as well as his ceiling.

Remember, that was a power rankings, not an actual prospect rankings. Ortiz was looking good before the injury.