Tony-OH

You don't really need a large sample size to see stuff with statcast. Grant it you would like to see more, but after watching his stuff in the minors, in matches up with the savant numbers.

Well in his one inning of major league work he averages 94.8 MPH that is very straight (0.1 inches of horizontal movement) and a decent spin rate cutter that averages 88 MPH. I watched some of his minor league games and that's his repertoire. Get decent miss despite the underwhelming overall stuff. Has a little deception in there but I don't see him having enough weapons to work in the MLB long term. https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/baker-in-his-debut

On the other hand, he keeps showing improvement.

Thanks for the clarification on the rules and his transaction history. I agree though, it would seem his best chance to pitch in the majors as a starter is with the Orioles as of right now at least.

It probably doesn't hurt for him to see what someone is willing to pay him, but it will be hard to find a better opportunity then sticking with the Orioles.

I just love the way he walks off after hitting that ball. Love the attitude.

He's still a four pitch pitcher who can throw of them all for strikes. Do you think all major league starter's have four major league average pitches or better? If he can throw two plus breaking pitches with two slightly below average other offerings that he can throw for strikes, that will play as a starter. As for the other two, why would you think they have a slim chance of success at the major league level because i happen to like a young four pitch lefty a bit better? You'll have to wait to see why I have them where I have them, but I do think both Baumann and Bradish are big league pitchers.

I don't think Ellis has left the organization though. the rule states this: "If a player has more than three years of Major League service time or was previously outrighted in his career (by his current club or another club), he is eligible to reject the outright assignment and instead opt for free agency. Players with more than three but less than five years of Major League service time must forfeit any remaining guaranteed money on their contract if they reject an outright assignment. Conversely, those with five or more years of Major League service time are still owed any guaranteed money remaining on their contract, should they elect free agency following an outright." Since he was outrighted by the Tampa when the Orioles picked him off waivers, I think this means he's eligible to be a free agent, but he could accept the outright. Since he passed through waivers it's doubtful he's going to get signed to a major league deal. We would he not resign with the Orioles on a minor league deal with a major league spring training invite? I doubt there's an organization out there where he has a better chance of winning a job than with the Orioles. This really goes for most of the pitchers outrighted.

You have to ask yourself, what do you value more. Guys that are closer with lower upside, or guys farther away with higher ceilings. You also have to decide which pitcher do you think has a better chance of sticking as a starter with the weapons they have.

While Bradish and Baumann were college draftees, look at where they were at the same age compared to Rom. I think too many people get tied up in velocity with left-handers. Now do I think Rom needs to improve the consistency of his changeup and use it more, I do. But he's a four-pitch lefty who pitched well in his AA debut down the stretch once he made some adjustments to better hitters. He can throw all four pitches for strikes, drops down at times against lefties giving them another look, and showed he can get AA right-handers out along with left-handers at just 21 years old after missing a year due to COVID. He has that great mixture of getting ground balls and missing bats and his offspeed pitches have that 10 mph difference or more from his fastball which is what works at the major league level. I may be the most bullish on Rom than even people in the organization (kinda like I was on Davies and Britton) but the stats really back up this placement. Now, I don't have access to his spin rates and things, but his fastball gets a lot of swing and miss in the upper part of the zone so he either has good spin rates, or good extension or has some kind of deception that allows it to play up better up there. Saying all that, he's not going to get away with a lot of fastballs in the middle of the plate will need to spot out for it to be effective at the big league levels. He's still working on that kind of command.

I had a nice little talk with Koby Perez (thanks to Mike Elias) who gave me some good stuff on the guys to know down in the DSL and the FCL. I became more bullish on Basallo and some others. If you look at Perez's success with Cleveland, he's a pretty good source and didn't seem to be giving fluff. Saying that, this is definitely a pure upside ceiling pick. He's got at extreme risk due to his age and distance away from the big leagues, but he's got impact power hitting skills and showed decent plate discipline for his age and inexperience. I guess in my mind, I'll take a flyer on a kid who could end up an impact bat who is athletic, flexible, has a great arm, and plays a premium position. Obviously with extreme risk he could be a big mover on this list next year in either direction. I'd love to see him put up some nice numbers in the FCL next year at 17 and be in Delmarva to start 2023 at 18. If he puts up numbers there then I think he legitimizes his prospect status. This is an aggressive placement for sure.

I tend to agree with this though I'm willing to see who they start picking up when they are ready to try and win. That will really tell us whether their system works to identify winning talent or not.

Rogers was never really given much of chance after coming back from Tommy John. While he never had great stuff, he seemed like the exact kind of guy to burn innings and see what you got. Overall he's probably going to regress and is probably no better than a swingman unless something has ticked up since he TJ, but he has a better changeup than bother Lowther and Wells and that is valuable to a left-hander.

I want to wait and see how the rest of the offseason goes before having too strongly of an opinion. I think those comments about his rehab may have had an affect as well as rumors of some questionable offseason work (lack of) that some may have thought contributed to his injuries. I agree there are several arms that I would have DFA'd before Harvey, but I want to see how the rest of this off season goes. As a said before, Harvey is the kind of arm that the Orioles should be taking fliers on, but I do think the entire package is what had them DFA him. They've jettisoned several pitchers who have ended up having roles in other organizations (Rogers/Phillips/LeBlanc) while the pitchers they tried this year mostly failed. Now, was that because they wanted that 1:1 or is it because they are not great at evaluating? That's the question that we want know until this team is trying to win, which hopefully starts in 2022.

I know I'm a lot high on him than others, bit I still think Rom is going to surprise a lot of people, ala Zach Davies. Now Davies had a plus changeup and Rom is still working on the feel of that pitch consistently, but if you look, Rom has outproduced both Wells and Lowther at similar levels and age and Lowther was older at the same levels. The fact that Rom has kept his groundballs rates up as he moved up is a great sign along with missing bats, something Wells didn't do as well once he hit A ball.

It really depends on how his changeup comes around. He has advanced pitchability and can bury his slider and curve on the back foot of right-handers, but I'd really like to see him develop that changeup down and away to be a consistent option against right-handers. If that happens and say he's dominating AAA at some point I could see him get September in the rotation to give him that taste before going into 2023.

But Hays hasn't missed nearly the time as Harvey has over his career. Hays actually showed he could stay healthy for most of the season after his early injury this year. Saying that, he's gotta stay healthy for a couple of seasons before I'd feel confident about him. Hays reminds me of Jeffrey Hammonds. Lots of talent but has to prove he can stay on the field.

I don't think that helped him at all. This organization is very secretive and doesn't want anyone talking out of place about anything that's part of the process. Basically they can talk generically about "technology" helping them or a coach, and after reading the stuff that came from MASN from the instructs, it's apparent talking about how everyone is great and they're all best friends is highly encouraged, but don't talk bad about a rehab. Saying that, breaking Hunter Harvey is probably not hard. If 75 pitchers are given a routine and Harvey is the one that breaks because of it, is it the routine, or the fragile player?

I still think Rom is going to surprise a lot of people, ala Zach Davies. Now Davies had a plus changeup and Rom is still working on teh feel of that pitch consistently, but if you look, Rom has outproduced both Wells and Lowther at similar levels and age and Lowther was older at the same levels. The fact that Rom has kept his groundballs rates up as he moved up is a great sign along with missing bats, something Wells didn't do as well once he hit A ball.

Honestly, had the Orioles handled the PR part of this better, it would have stopped a lot of this kind of stuff. It's easy to look at how much access the press has had with this instructs and look back and wonder why anyone would have had any questions about Kjerstad, but the Orioles kept everyone, including some personnel in the minors in total darkness. All they had to say is Kjerstad is dealing with a medical condition and won't be at training camp and his return is currently unknown. That doesn't violate any HIPPA concerns and is better then allowing rumors to start circulating. I'll be honest, I heard some things as well, but didn't report them because I wasn't sure and I don't pass on rumors on young men's health outside of baseball injuries. The Orioles communication about minor league players injuries needs to improve. It makes no sense to treat them like state secrets but that's how the current regime has decided to run things.

Who are the Orioles 2021 #13 and #14 prospects?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/08/12-samuel-basallo/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/07/11-drew-rom/

But I don't think anyone is in favor is being able to sell draft picks, but no reason they should be able to trade for them.