Tony-OH

With the potential work stoppage next season due to the collectives bargaining agreement, I just don't see the Angelos brothers letting Elias release Davis. They probably saw the money they saved last year as evidence why its financially smart to keep him on the roster. The only other thing is for him to magically step in the "Ubaldo puddle" that would enable them to DL him for most or all of the season.

Remember, Hall doesn't start until a month late as well. Either way, I don't see a way Hall pitches in the big leagues this year even if he's lights out. Elias doesn't start clocks until he has too and even if he is lights out at Bowie (a big IF), that just means he'll get his taste of AAA.

Besides a nuclear bomb going off at the Sarasota complex during spring training, what other scenario would see Rodriguez of Hall reach Baltimore this year? Ok, maybe it's 0.1% chance so I guess technically you could be right if you go by Fangraph odds. Personally I think the Orioles have a 0.0% chance of winning the Word Series, but I'd say their chances of making the playoffs in the expanded format is not 0%.. It might be 1%, but it's not 0%. There's 0% chance I will pitch for the Orioles though.

I agree. There are so many guys that are ahead of them in development and Elias has shown no willingness to start control clocks any earlier than he has to with high ceiling players. Add in that everyone's innings are going to be monitored very closely after limited innings last year, and I don't see any scenario where either of these guys debut in Baltimore this season. Just prospect wise, Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Zimmermann and Smith are all ahead of them in development and that's not even counting the myriad of guys Elias has brought in for AAA depth that will get chances before them.

It kind of sucks that all of the minor league will be off on Mondays. I wish they would have adjusted the travel days between A/AA/AAA for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. As for Rutschman, I could see him starting off at AAA to get him extra playing time. From what I heard about him at the alternate site, I doubt he would be overwhelmed and right now it's time to get him as many PAs as possible. If they need to move him down to AA when their season starts that's fine, but for now I could see him starting with Norfolk.

Honestly, I don't see him coming out of most games unless his defensive numbers show he's really poor. Obviously Hays is a better defensive outfielder in LF (he may be GG caliber there) than he is in CF where he's adequate, but Hyde will have to look at lots variables including the bullpen arms available to keep the lead before taking an impact bat like Mountcastle for Mullins' bat.

I'll be honest, I think the SS-2B combo is going to be Galvis-Sanchez unless an injury occurs. I don't really think there is an actual "battle" for second base although I expect they are going to want to take a look at Jones but more towards seeing what he looks like for the future. Sure, Valaika, Urias and Martin may get some time there (Martin will probably mostly play SS), but second base is Sanchez's job for no other reason than his defense is going to be head and shoulders above the other candidates. I also don't think the Orioles are looking at Valdez as a starter. He's almost like a knuckleball pitcher in that he has a pitch that few batters see often, but I would imagine the second time through the order players would make some adjustments. WC made some interesting thoughts about the pen and if the Orioles start looking at a 3rd left-handed reliever Abad makes some sense. Saying that, I think he needs some injuries to make the pen unless he's totally lights out. As for outfield, the team is at it's best defensively with Hay-Mullins-Santander is out there, but with Mountcastle needing to be in LF with the return of Mancini, I see Mullins as the 4th outfielder spelling Hays and or Mountcastle against tough right-handers (Hays moves to left when Mountcastle gets a break). Hays will be the everyday center fielder if he stays healthy, and yes, I know that's a BIG IF!

It probably can't hurt, but I think it's hard for batters to give up that one side. He did collect his first two extra base hits batting right-handed last year including that one home run and put up a .304 WOBA against fastballs, but he's just not a guy you want at the plate batting right-handed frequently. Saying all that, don't think any amount of batting practice is going to change his abilities against major league pitching. Only swing tweaks and experience could do that if possible.

You caught me before I had fixed it or while I was fixing it. "but he still should only bat right-handed in emergencies "

Yes, it was nice to read how much Rodriguez puts into making himself the best he can be. Bodes well for his future success.

I'm not convinced Mullins is more than a 4th/5th outfielder at the major league level and he's only that because if his defensive abilities. His XWOBA was much lower than his WOBA which of course is probably due to the success of the bunt hits. Either way, he did make some progress hitting left-handed but he still should only bat right-handed in emergencies or as a late game fill in.

https://www.masnsports.com/orioles-buzz/2021/02/daschbach-hoping-to-supplement-power-with-well-rounded-approach.html Nice little article about some things Daschbach was working on. He's a guy that will certainly need to tap into his raw power and turn it into game power to move up the chain.

Or Jimmy's Seafood!

I don't think it was incompetence per se, but are you suggesting that 2 or 3 years more of outfield experience would not help him be a better outfielder right now? How much experience do you believe a player needs to become the best defensive outfielder he can be? While I don't think it was a "tragic decision" either, according to stacast his jumps (-0.9 ft/sec) and burst (-1.2) (Note: They are measured on 2 star catches or harder chances) were well below average and his feet covered (in 1.5 seconds) of 27.9 would have put him 111th of 113 outfielders despite having 78th percential sprint speed running the bases. This suggests he's tentative or was not able to run effectively fast to his speed capability while tracking flyballs. That typically comes with experience. Now, saying that, he only had five two stars+ chances and converted two of them so we are talking a small sample size. Since most of Mountcastle's chances last year were pretty routine catches (1 star) which are not tracked, and of course five opportunities is not enough of a sample size to draw any formal conclusions, it does suggest that Mountcasle may not be an average defensive outfielder despite the metrics of OAA (0) and success added (-1%) show him to be average to slightly below average. Most players improve with experience with things like playing the outfield because tracking balls, jumps and routes. Now there does come a time where tools come to play and this is where Mountcastle's raw speed tool is a plus for him over saying someone like a Trumbo who had well below average foot speed and was never going to be a good defensive outfielder. Of course on the other side of the coin, Mountcastle's below average arm will limit him to left field.

Yep, it's a huge part that can't really be measured by anything other then observing their actions. Part of what made Mancini max out his potential is because of those attributes as well. These "intangibles" are sometimes the difference between becoming a star or just being an average player or in some cases, even making the major leagues vs being a minor leaguer. Elias (and yes I know he did not draft Rodriguez) seems to put a lot into tools and baseball IQ/work ethic. I've yet to hear a bad thing said about his high draft picks when it comes to these attributes.

This is already on the minor league board. Please keep minor league stuff on their board, thanks.

Who knows, it's doubtful it will lead to anything big, but his value would go up if he was good enough one day to be a backup catcher or at least have the ability catch in a pinch. It could allow the Orioles to still DH Rutschman on days he doesn't catch if Bannon was good enough to catch in a pinch. Can't hurt.. https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/02/expanded-resume-rylan-bannon-added-to-his-during-instructional-league.html?fbclid=IwAR3xjyJvi7oIMHrc598Fz4l0Kt-KfMTczzHHix400P3R7gBxOiMfZJAZiBY

I can remember it being reported coming out of the draft that Mountcastle had an above average arm. I got reports in instructional league that his arm was "awful" and would never play at SS so if you look back, my initial scouting report him has him a poor arm. From our 2015 scouting report after his GCL season in a draft year: From our 2016 Scouting report

The player development folks evaluated Mountcastle immediately and decided he was not a shortstop. I was told Dan Duquette himself insisted that Mountcastle play shortstop because it would up his value. The problem of course with that idea is that if no other team thinks he's a shortstop, it doesn't help out his value at all. There were some people in the organization that wanted to move him to the outfield after his Delmarva season but were overruled. So the team kept playing him at SS and then moved him over to third where everyone knew his arm wouldn't work there either. So basically they lost out on several years of outfield defense development because Dan Duquette felt Mountcastle had more value playing SS even though I'm betting, he knew he really couldn't play there either. I try to call Duquette's moves and management as I see it, and in this case, his plan for developing Mountcastle defensively was poor.

Problem is none are likely to happen in our lifetime!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/grayson-rodriguez-on-his-changeup-which-isnt-a-screwball-or-is-it/ This quote alone shows the difference in the development of our pitching prospects Laurila: When and how did you begin developing it? Rodriguez: “I went home after finishing my first season — this was 2018, in the GCL after I got drafted — and I was at the workout facility I’ve been going to for a couple of years. Josh Tomlin, who was with Cleveland forever and is now is with the Braves, was there. I was talking to him about how the Orioles really wanted me to be working on a changeup, how they thought it would fit well in my arsenal. Josh is a very smart pitcher, and he kind of showed me, and told me, what a changeup is supposed to do — what the perfect changeup would be like. “I was working on that. How to move it — the pronation of your wrist — and then when I got to spring training for my first full season, Justin Ramsey, who was my pitching coach in low-A, along with Chris Holt, our big-league pitching coach who at the time was our pitching coordinator… we really got after it with the slow-motion cameras. We did a lot of crazy things, like draw stripes around the baseball, to see how it was moving. Once we figured out the wrist positioning and the wrist movement — once we refined all that — then it was just a matter of which grip would fit me the best. “We spent hours studying how the ball left my hand, and just how the ball was spinning. We were moving it around in bullpens, getting different feels in my hand with how the ball sits. Finally, we found the perfect grip. We just started rolling with it from there.”

He looks in great shape no doubt. Excited see him before on the mound this year in competition once again.

I imagine the Orioles would like Harvey to be that guy if everything shook out that way, but I also think Hyde doesn't like to get pitchers pigeon holed into roles and will use his best reliever available in high leverage situations. Scott had a great year last year and can clearly be dominant, but being a lefty, he's better utilized as that high leverage guy in the 7th or 8th inning though if the lineup comes up with lefties in the 9th, I could see Hyde going with him. Valdez was more of closer by necessity. While his dead fish changeup is clearly a unique animal amongst MLB pitches, it remains to be seen whether he can have success over an entire year once batters become more used to seeing the pitch. The good news is barring injury, Sulser should be nowhere near a closer role.

Error Definition. A fielder is given an error if, in the judgment of the official scorer, he fails to convert an out on a play that an average fielder should have made. Fielders can also be given errors if they make a poor play that allows one or more runners to advance on the bases. So by definition, a player could be given an error by the scorer if an exceedingly bad throw was made but unless it slipped out of his hand or was inaccurate, I doubt a fielder has ever been given an error because a batter beat it out do to lack of arm strength. Mostly because it would be so subjective I doubt any scorer would be willing to say an accurate throw that was beaten out was only due to a lack of average arm strength.

I would agree with that and it's because of how he needs to generate the throw power. When he can wind up, he can generate slightly below average arm strength, but the infield typically requires a quicker arm action to generate arm strength. He just never had the arm action that would allow for him to get to them arm strength which limits him to 1st base on the dirt and even then his throws will be a problem at times.