Tony-OH

I think the fact that he's all of those things you mentioned and still this high on the list tells you how much I like what I've heard about him. I'm looking forward to seeing him play in 2021.

What spot was Yaz taking up in AAA? the Orioles gave Mason Williams (27) 494 PAs and Christopher Bostick (26) 442 PAs in the outfield. Yaz barely got a look in spring training before they jettisoned him, and just a year after he OPS'd .801 in Norfolk (before they introduced the superballs in 2019 that made it a hitter's league). He's a guy who outperforms his expected stats (WOBA .400 vs .355 xWOBA) and I think he probably didn't score high on exit velocity and launch angle with Orioles during spring training and Elias felt that along with age made him worthless. I'm not saying that the Orioles should have known he would break out with some changes, but it does bare looking at the process a little closer. What scouting did they use to bring in Dwight Smith Jr.? Who didn't know he was a disaster in the outfield? For some reason the Blue Jays DFA'd after he had hit well in his major league debut, so what did they see that the Orioles FO did not?

This was a tricky one because I jumped Hernaiz a little bit over hearing some good things about him this spring from a couple of people. Other than that, Hanifee was next on the the 2019 list and I feel he has a little more upside as a potential starter than the rest on the list.

This is the part where I think the new regime (scouts), manager and coaching staff failed a bit. I'm not sure how anyone could have missed how bad a defensive outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. was already. I can understand thinking Smith Jr.s bat would potentially play better than Yaz's, but that defense was horrid by Smith.

Who are the #21 and #22 Prospects?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/23/20-2020-prospect-brenan-hanifee-rhp/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/23/19-2020-prospect-darrell-hernaiz-ss/

The Orioles won't lose an affiliate. If Frederick or Delmarva was contracted Aberdeen would just be added. They will still have a Low-A, High-A, AA, and AAA teams. Only the New York Penn League was scheduled to go under which means they will just move one franchise to Aberdeen.

These little tidbits are nice, but Blood has been giving company line on guys so far in most interviews. Take the glowing reports with a grain of salt. Not saying these guys aren't looking good, but let's not get too excited based off these comments. Saying that, I've heard similar things about Henderson and Westburg. Big, athletic players that bring multiple tools to the field.

Peralta's walk rate finally came down to respectable levels last year and he was throwing more quality strikes, but his performance when promoted to Frederick was disappointing. I don't see him being taken in the Rule 5 draft. He's still way too raw.

I don't really know. He's a got a mature body and the arm is not really lightening quick, so I don't think there is a ton more in there, but we've seen both Means and Zimmerman increase some velocity late so who knows?

Hanifee had a disappointing year for sure last year as he tried to make his stuff work with the way the Orioles want him to pitch under the new regime. Saying that, there is still some upside here and why he was not buried on the list last year. Another poor year in 2021 though and he'll be off the list for sure.

I really could have built a case for any order between 17-25 so honestly, there are little nuances here that have them in the order I put them in vs anyone is dead wrong for having a different opinion. As you said earlier, this is where the depth of the system shows. We have guys still with upside in this range and they typically would have been in the 12-18 range in prior lists.

I did have some spring training looks from people to go off of as well so that could have affected some rankings, especially if I wasn't in love with some of the guys above them.

Would I prefer a plus change to the curve, perhaps, but I will say that although Well's change is a little to firm and lack great depth, for some reason batters struggle with the pitch from what I've seen. I was really looking forward to seeing him in AAA where the cameras are much better for assessing pitches.

I could easily have built a case for Rom to be above Wells, but this is where having success at AA gives Wells a slight nod in my opinion. Rom certainly could be much higher next year. They're basically the same type of prospect in my eyes with Rom having a slightly high ceiling because there could still be some major improvement due to his age.

Fixed, thanks.

A decent comp for Wells could be Tommy Milone.. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tommy-milone-543548?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb Wells doesn't have the changeup that Milone has, but I think his breaking ball is better.

Who are the #19 and #20 Prospects?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/22/18-2020-prospect-drew-rom-lhp/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/22/17-2020-prospect-alex-wells-lhp/

Well it shows the ability to use the legs!

He could be any of these guys, who knows? Just glad to have that potential.

Can Greinke dunk a basketball despite being just 6-2? Was Greinke also going to be able to punt at the D-I level as well as play baseball? I don't know whether one is more athletic than the other, but this kid is a three-sport athlete who choose baseball.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=vavra-000ter&type=bgl&year=2019 Those splits are a bit of a concern as well. I'm more concerned over the platoon splits, but it would have been nice to have seen Vavra hit this year at High-A to see if those splits changed.