Tony-OH

It's certainly fair to ask those questions now because the game has changed. It's kind of like strikeout to walk was a huge red flag or even strikeout rates themselves were in the past for hitters. I'm not saying they still aren't things you look at, but you have to look deeper now and watch what hitters can and can't hit. It's not that I'm worried about Akin being able to get into the 6th inning more times than not, I'm more worried about his inconsistency from outing to outing and the fact he seems to make mistakes in the middle of the plate too much and when he does, hitters don't miss him much.

It's a SSS regardless, but it's what I saw in the minors. A few good outings then followed up by a couple of disaster outings. Sometimes it was just a real bad inning where he just kinda loses command and leaves too much in the middle of the plate.

Did he? 50% hard hit rate and barrel% over major league average.

Yes, you have it down right. Command is important in the major leagues because major league batters don't miss as many mistakes in the middle of the plate. I just heard he was not getting a lot of swing and miss of the more mature hitters and when he did get in it the zone, he didn't miss many at all. Take it with a grain of salt though because of the circumstances and experience level of the hitters he was facing. I'm not too concerned over this summer because he's so young, and he still showed some great raw stuff including a real hammer curve that did miss bats at times. As for Hall, from what I heard, he still does not even have control yet, forget command for now. The raw stuff though is still top shelf.

This is all fun of course, but no one is really wrong here. When I post the results I'll explain why I pick some guys over others, but I'm telling you right now, 2-6 are all very, very close and I could build a case for each to be in just about any position. I will say there is probably going to be a surprise in here somewhere for someone.

I recall hearing that a while back but I've never heard anyone from the Orioles system or scouts I would talk to out of the system voice those concerns. He holds his stuff well and is built like a starter. The biggest knock on him was he wasn't fooling a lot of hitters this summer, especially in the zone, but the hitters he was facing was a mighty big step up from the Sally League hitter in 2019. I'm not going to dock a 20 year old facing hitters with major leaguer experience and the best prospects in the system.

Where are you getting those from? Savant has all of his breaking balls as sliders. Saying that, it is a bit of a hybrid pitch. It's a little slow for a true slider and has more horizontal break as a lot of curveballs. From a scouting standpoint, I'd call it a slurve but it has more of a slider shape than a true 12-6 curveball.

I would say he can flash a plus changeup, but it's more average. Savant has him at -3% vs avg on drop but 14% vs avg on fade (horizontal). The pitch plays well against his high Bauer Unit fastball (26.0) so he had a high WHIF rate (36% the highest of all his pitches). The problem though is he tends too miss to much high or in the middle of the plate and it gets hit hard when he does. When he finishes low and away with the pitch it can be a swing and miss pitch. Part of Akins issues has always been consistent command of his pitches and making too many mistakes in the middle of the plate. He had a 50% hard hit rate (bottom 2% of league) because of those misses in the middle of the plate. While a small sample size at the major league level, it backs up what I've been saying about Akin for years from watching him in the minors. The stuff is there. The consistent command has never been there often enough and it's why you will see outstanding starts followed by disasters.

I still think Akin is going to end up in the pen. Not because he doesn't show three major league average pitches, but it takes him a lot of pitches to get batters out and he would probably always be a 5 inning starter with inconsistent outings. I think he can be just absolutely nasty out of the pen, but the question will be can he work on back to back days and be effective? Saying that, I expect the Orioles to give him a whole season next year in the rotation to prove it. I think we'll see #5 results for a few years and then someone (depending on whether he's traded or not at some point) will convert him when better starter options show up. The good news is he's a major league pitcher in some role and will be for a long time as long as he stays healthy, which is something he's always been able to do.

Haha. Hence why he was #1 on all of the options. The one thing I was told last year there were whispers of a shoulder issue after being drafted but this year he seemed to be throwing well and with no restrictions.

Baumann, Lowther, Diaz are no doubters for protection so that's three. I don't see any of the others protected though maybe Wells (however, teams don't typically look for his profile in the rule 5 draft). Pop is the only guy that could potentially be protected, but he hasn't pitched in so long he would be a total "take a look" candidate if selected. I don't see Bannon getting selected and I you have as much chance of being selected as Mattson so I don't see him protected either.

This is where it gets pretty tough. Honestly, I could build a case for these guys to be switched around a bit, just like I could have built a case for #3 and #4 being #2 on this list. The good news is they all are in the system.

You have to remember, my list is always who would you rather have in your system if you could only have one. Kjerstad has a ton of potential, but has never taken a professional at bat and we only got a small part of his Junior year. That makes his risk profile higher then some others on the high part of the list. Saying that, I could have built a case for 2-4 in being any order and #5 is in the conversation.

Who are the #3 and #4 Prospects?

Name: Adley Rutschman (click link for full 2019 scouting report) Position: C Age as of 6/30/20: 22 Bats: Switch Throws: Right Current Grade: 45 Future Grade: 65 Ceiling Grade: 70 Most Likely Future Role: Starting Catcher, occasional All-Star Ceiling: Starting Catching, Perennial All-Star Career Stats Quick Scouting Report Update: Despite no 2020 minor league season, this 22-year old receiver solidified his status as one of the best prospects in baseball with an outstanding auxiliary camp. Mentioned by several observers that he was by and far the best player in camp against very experienced pitching that included pitchers with major league experienced. Defensively he threw well and his overall defensive play was outstanding. http://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/12/1-2020-prospect-adley-rutschman/

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/12/2-2020-prospect-grayson-rodriguez/

With no 2020 minor league season and a five round draft, this is one of the most difficult top prospects lists to develop. But, after receiving information about the auxiliary camp, and doing some video scouting of new players acquired in the draft and in trades, we've put together our top 30 prospects. Rank Name Current Grade Future Grade Ceiling Grade 1 Adley Rutschman 50 70 70 2 Grayson Rodriguez 35 60 65 3 Ryan Mountcastle 50 60 65 4 Heston Kjerstad 40 60 65 5 Gunnar Henderson 30 50 65 6 DL Hall 30 50 65 7 Michael Baumann 45 50 60 8 Jordan Westburg 30 50 55 9 Dean Kremer 50 50 50 10 Keegan Akin 50 50 50 11 Zac Lowther 40 50 50 12 Yusniel Diaz 40 45 50 13 Terrin Vavra 35 45 50 14 Hudson Haskin 35 45 50 15 Coby Mayo 20 50 60 16 Carter Baumler 20 50 60 17 Alex Wells 40 45 50 18 Drew Rom 25 45 50 19 Darrell Hernaiz 25 45 55 20 Brenan Hanifee 30 45 50 21 Adam Hall 30 45 50 22 Kyle Bradish 40 45 50 23 Kyle Stowers 25 45 50 24 Kevin Smith 40 45 50 25 Bruce Zimmerman 40 45 50 26 Anthony Servideo 25 45 50 27 Ryan McKenna 40 40 45 28 Adam Stauffer 25 40 50 29 Rylan Bannon 35 40 45 30 Tyler Nevin 35 40 45 2019 Prospect List Grading System: Grade Hitters Starters Relievers 80 HOFer HOFer #1 75 Top 1-2 Top 1-2 #1 70 Top 5 Top 5 #1 65 All-Star All-Star #1-#2 60 Plus #2-#3 Elite Closer All-Star 55 Above AVG #3-#4 Mid-Closer 50 AVG Regular #4-#5 Low-Closer/Elite Setup 45 Platoon/Utilty #5-Swingman Setup 40 Bench Up/Down Middle/Long relief 35 Up/Down Emergency Up/Down 30 Org (AA/AAA) Org (AA/AAA) Org (AA/AAA) 25 Org (AA) Org (AA) Org (AA) 20 Org (A Ball ) Org (A Ball) Org (A Ball)

Yes

Thanks Phillip. I do bounce things off guys and even though I'm making the final list and calls this year, I still have people I talk to. Without a season I didn't really have the video work to do as much so it was less work. Still, appreciate the thoughts.

Who are the 2020 #1 and #2 Prospects?

By the way, I'm done talking with folks and will put out my Top 30 prospects starting next week.

If the Orioles have a final say, they should definitely not give up Frederick as an affiliate. A agree that Norfolk stays, but I'm not so sure Frederick or Aberdeen would not meet Double-A standards and Bowie is the worse stadium by far of the options. I think either Bowie or Delmarva gets cut and it makes more sense for Bowie since it associates itself more as a Washington suburb than Baltimore.

I think you missed my point. My point was how Elias handles these guys this offseason should tell us if the team is in such financial dire straits that two coaches had to be let go because of their contracts.

If the choice is between Ruiz and Alberto at 3B next year, honestly, Ruiz is the better overall player at that position. XWOBA is what I consider the best new statistic to gauge a hitters value as it takes the expected weighted on base ability of the player. I like to look at actual WOBA vs XWOBA. In 2020: Player WOBA XWOBA MLB AVG .317 .321 Alberto .297 .253 Ruiz .298 .269 Both are clearly below average offensive players though Alberto brings an empty average to the plate while Ruiz provides more pop. Defensively I think they both are slightly below average third basemans but Ruiz gets the nod with a better arm. Basically this is a position the team needs to improve at in the future as neither Ruiz or Alberto are anything more than stops gaps.

I think it's too early to assume that, but this offseason should tell us a lot by what they do with Iglesius' team option (should be an obvious choice) and the arbitration eligible players.