Tony-OH

I think all SG is saying is IF the Orioles conclude that he will only be a reliever, they should move him before he loses value. I don't think that decision will be made for several more years because his stuff is so good.

At 20 years old in High-A: Glasnow: 1.74 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 5.4 H/9, 0.2 HR/9 Hall: 3.46 ERA, 12.9 K/9, 6.0 BB/9, 5.9 H/9, 0.3 HR/9 Not the worse comp when it comes to ages and statistics though Glasnow gets the edge in everything but K/9 rate and Hall got a lot of Ks with young hitters swinging at curveballs in the dirt and high fastballs. Glasnow did make a big jump the next year at 21 and unfortunately all we have is camp info on Hall but the info did not seem to indicate better command. Still, it could give us a little bit of of a timeline for Hall and the type of guy he could become.

Just to be clear, I never said the Orioles think anything about Hall. It is my opinion that there is some reliever risk currently. I have not concluded he is going to be a reliever yet either, hence why he's still #6.

I'll give you a hint, if I have no new reports on guys they are basically staying in the same order as last year, but with adjustments due to the inclusion of the new players that have come into the system via the draft or trade. The high school draft picks were the hardest to figure out where to drop them because they have nice ceilings but extreme risk profiles. Basically I just decided to put them ahead of guys I definitely think are Utility guys, 4th/5th outfielders, relievers or potential starter's that carry a lot of risk due to being far away. At the end of the day, they both got $1.5 million or higher signing bonuses which puts them as high 2nd round talents. The thing is, maybe they would have become 1st round talents if they had full senior years? Who knows? I know I liked the power I saw from Mayo and his arm at 3B is pretty special, but we don't know how the swing will hold up in the pros. He could be in the top ten or off the list next year depending on how he does against pro competition. As for Baumler, huge, huge unknown but he has a Zach Davies kind a of vibe to him from the reports of a kid who really knows how to pitch at a young age.

Santander has a better and more accurate arm and overall probably runs better consistent routes from what I've seen in the past and heard this year. Santander was a 1 OAA and 1% success added outfielder in RF so basically a little better than league average, so I'm not really sure where all of this negative opinion on his defense is coming from of late here on the board. Personally, I like Santander a lot and my only concern with him is the same I have for Hays, and that's his ability to stay healthy over a 162 games schedule.

Here's the thing, I'm going off what I heard completely and not what I saw, which is always a little risky for me. I truly respect the guys I talk to because I know they shoot straight, but I would have liked to have seen some video myself. I'm not going to lie though, even though the stuff still gets raved about, it's not thrilling that he will be 22-years old next year and was compared to Tanner Scott in his early years when he came to control. Now Hall has much better secondaries that Scott didn't have until late in minor league career when he developed his wipe out slider. It's really tough to say and also tough to fully evaluate off a camp environment. I do know Hall carry's very good spin rate numbers on his fastball and curveball so the stuff is there. We've seen Scott finally get it a bit this year and we also know that Hall is extremely hard to hit when he's close to the zone, so that still bodes well for him. I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter, but just think he's starting to carry a reliever risk which drops him a bit, but he also dropped a bit because of improvements by Mountcastle and Henderson and the drafting of Kjerstad. He's got the kind of talent though that if he puts it together he could be an impact pitcher at the major league level, and for a #6 prospect that tells me the system is probably deeper than it's been since the early 70s.

One thing to keep in mind, I value starters and every day 1st division players over guys who carry reliever or 4th outfield/utility risk. If a pitcher has a better chance of sticking as a starter they have a good chance of being ranked over a guy I think is heading to the pen, unless the ceiling of that plater still remains high and they still have a chance at sticking in a starter's role (Hall). I will be honest, I had #7 over Hall at one point before deciding that Hall's overall stuff, and the development of the change this year in camp, were worthy of keeping at #6 despite the concerns over control. Another thing to take into consideration is that it's a tough year to ding too much for a lack of experience due to the minor league season being cancelled and the amateur seasons cut short. I'm taking some educated "guesses" on the new draft picks this year and trying to not dock them as much as I would if they didn't have any pro time. It's not the easiest year to do rankings for sure.

They are very close, but I just chose to take an athletic, great body type guy in Henderson over Hall, mainly because Hall is starting carry a reliever risk a bit due to his lack of control.

They are always much more important than the order, particularly when we have a lot of similar prospects for most like outcomes and ceiling. As I said, 5-7 could have moved in any order really and a case could be built. Basically I have them grouped like this so far: Tier One Rutschman Tier Two Rodriguez Mountcastle Kjerstad Tier Three Henderson Hall #7 prospect

This is not your first rodeo with these lists and polls. You know how to read the tea leaves a bit.

Santander is a better defensive outfielder than Diaz.

Who are the # 7 and #8 Prospects?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/14/6-2020-prospect-dl-hall-lhp/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/14/5-2020-gunnar-henderson-ss/

On top of it, it seems like Elias may be following the Houston model which is to develop the hitters and then trade for the arms when there ready and or established. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but his lack of drafting pitchers early suggests this.

He will not be.

Why is this sad? The fact that Hall with all his potential can fall behind other prospects shows the depth of the system in my opinion.

I will say the top seven in this organization are better than any top 7 I've ever evaluated in the 20+ years I 've been doing Orioles Top Prospects list.

Having the major league data from baseball savant helped to be able to convey the scouting though. I wish we had that data on minor leaguers.

Yeah, I wanted to upvote ya earlier because you nailed my thoughts process pretty well.

I will say this without giving this away. From 5-7, I could have put them in any order and been able to build a solid case for that order.

Potentially for sure, but we don't have a ton to go off of because his plate discipline wasn't that great until his shortened junior campaign. Mountcastle is only two years older than Kjerstad and I know we can't dock anyone for missed time this year, but at 21, Mountcastle slashed .297/.341/.464/.806 in Bowie (AA) already. But, like I've said elsewhere, I could have easily built a case for him at #3 over Mountcastle and feel they both have about the same ceiling, just one is already here.

I think he has untapped range. It seems to be tentative when running after balls but it's hard to say because he really wasn't challenged very much. i do like that the early results saw him in as 0 OAA outfielder which means he didn't hurt the team when he was out there.

Kjerstad's ceiling might be higher because we have less to go on with him. If his improvements this spring were indications that he's made major adjustments and was becoming an impact bat, then he could have a higher ceiling and end up better than Mountcastle. But, at this point, we can see how well Mountcastle performed at the MLB level and although he's got a hole low and away that he'll need to make adjustments with, the fact that he just destroyed most mistakes and was already being pitched around tells you a lot about his ability to be an impact bat. The only thing that holds him back is that he will bring little to no defensive value. honestly though, I could have built a case to put Kjerstad #3 so no one is really "wrong" here.

Who are the #5 and #6 Prospects?