Tony-OH

What does this have to do with the results of Orioles minor league pitchers?

I was talking to a college coach and he said that he knows a player that was offered $800K in NIL money to go to LSU. So yes, the NIL money is changing the landscape of all NCAA sports.

I was talking to a college coach and said he knows a player that was offered $800K in NIL money to go to LSU. So yes, the NIL money is changing the landscape of all NCAA sports.

Povich had pretty decent in May if you take out his last start. Not dominant like April, but still decent with a 3.62 ERA and holding batters to a .257/.317/.459/.775 slash with a 31 to 9 K to BB in 27.1 IP. As someone stated, he has reverse splits getting righties out to the tune of a .180/.263/.317/.579 slash line but .250/.307/.427/.733 to lefties. Toronto is a right-handed heavy lineup so this might be a good matchup for him Thursday. This move would move Bradish back to Friday against Tampa, giving him an extra day of rest after a tough outing. If i did the games right, this would align him with starting the 1st game in the Yankees series on 6 days rest.

Yes, thanks, I'll fix that.

These players have their numbers going into the drafts and the team know them. With NIL money, it's harder to sign the top High School guys because they know they are going to get paid well to go to college now. Saying that, they still have a number that will sign for and team just have to be willing to take that risk. Again, we all know there are going to be more misses than hits. Nobody should expect every draft pick to hit. But when you see that you've had no success drafting college bats that had average to below average stats and they've failed to develop in the pros, maybe stop drafting those types. I like the Forret types of drafts picks because they have some development upside. Maybe focus more on the JC level for the kids that just developed later vs waiting to the 10th round to draft below average college types.

And you will probably, but my points stand. I noticed you haven't said one thing about them not drafting and developing pitchers. All you are doing is trying to poo-poo my points by talking about generics drafting outcomes which don't hold any weight to the points that I've made. Nobody expects them to hit with every pick, or even the majority. That was not my point at all. Thankfully some got it. You could potentially do something useful and look at all the pitchers that were drafted over the last five years that have made the major leagues or have become impact pitchers. The Orioles have drafted zero that have made the major leagues. ZERO! Now I'm sure you'll go back to the Drungo-lab and go find other organizations that have failed to produce a major league pitcher over a five year span, but the this is the only span of Elias and company. The Orioles have touted themselves as advanced in finding these pitchers and even thought so much about their "advantages" they basically ignored pitching until the 8th round and later thinking they could take guys nobody else really wanted and make them into guys. That has failed so far. Arbruester is the guy who has made it the farthest and he's been getting crushed at AAA and has nothing to get lefties out, something that has been his problem from day one. Where is the development? Why is he still getting run out there as a starter instead of having him focus on being a 1-2 inning reliever and pitching more often to see how he looks on that role? The Orioles have gotten rid of most of the "old school" coaches and gone with the computer guys and I don't personally see many developments from the hitting or the pitchers outside of the guys with the extreme talent in the first place. The guys with shady command still have shady command. Some of these pitchers are throwing 5 or more different types of pitches and wonder why they can't command their stuff more often. I see this with McDermott and Povich who have very good stuff, but they throw like 5 or 6 pitch types and end up inconsistent when a few aren't working. Maybe have them focus on the two maybe three secondaries to master them, then worry about the other stuff.

None of this has anything to do with the points I've made. Sure, some of you can stick your head in the sand and just go "The draft is a crapshoot" but then if you do, you can't give Elias credit for any of his draft picks because that means he just go lucky. Just like I don't think they were lucky in drafting Rutschman, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Mayo, Kjerstad, etc. I also don't give them a pass for not drafting and developing one major league pitcher in 5 years of drafting. They passed on a lot of arms to draft a lot of college bats that have not worked out. they did not balance their drafts with pitching and hitting, but went with a college bat philosophy and as I shown, they've had little success with that philosophy while there are a ton of major league pitchers who were drafted in these same drafts and passed on. Now 2023 was a shift in philosophy on the pitching side and we'll see how that works out. Now I'd like to see them give more high school hitters shots in the early rounds. I'd rather strike out on High school guys more often and then find a Gunnar or Mayo once in awhile, vs going college heavy and getting decent bats that are defensively flawwed like we have with Kjerstad and Norby or guys that have low ceilings.

Yes, I'm not trashing Elias at all, in fact, I'd love to hear he signed a 10 year contract here. I'm just bringing up some facts and concerns about their focus of drafting college hitters and their inability to draft and develop pitching. Elias and company absolutely put the Orioles where they are with the drafting of Rutschman, Gunnar, Westburg and Cowser to a lesser extent. All of them have contributed mightily to the Orioles success and Ortiz got the team a year of Burnes which also will help. But we can't turn a blind eye to the Orioles struggles in the bullpen right now and not look at why there is no real help in the system from the pitching side that they drafted and developed. I just thought it was worth a conversation.

The Orioles definitely have their philosophy and metrics they look for in hitters and pitching. The results have spoken on the pitching side so far and as I showed, there is not a ton of successes, especially lately with drafting college bats after the first round. While I have no opinion of Boddy's knowledge of pitching development, at the end of the day, where are the results? You can look at a computer screen and compu-data all day long, but until you start developing real major league pitchers, it's just data babble. We've had all this technology and not a single pitcher has suddenly become an outstanding major league pitcher. Heck, not one has made it yet. I've watched guys and see guys with some good pitches, but they struggle with consistency. Now most minor league pitchers struggle with consistency which is why they are in the minors, but it would be nice to have a few guys that you could point to and say, see, we developed that guy into an impact major league reliever. It's been 5 years of drafting and the closest pitcher Elias has drafted to the major leagues is probably Kade Strowd (though Brandon Young could be interesting at some point this year in the pen -Note Young was a 2020 COVID free agent signee vs a draft pick, but would have been drafted).

All good points, and I certainly gave him his credit for his early selections that you mentioned. The point though is the drafting philosophy of focusing on college hitters over pitchers or high school players after the 1st round has not paid off in any significant way to this current run besides Ortiz being used to get Burnes.

They certainly changed their philosophy a bit in the 2023 draft and I think that's because of the issues I pointed out. I truly think that they thought they could just take guys with good pitch shapes, velocity, and movement and develop them into major league pitchers. But they found out there's a reason those guys are still available in the 6th round or after, and especially in the 10th round and after. Same with the hitters. I think they relied on EV too much without taking into consideration the holes in the hitters games that resulted in less than stellar numbers in college. Now I know we both get that there are going to be many more misses than hits, but as I showed, the philosophy may need to change on hitters too and maybe take some chances on some high risk/high reward high school hitters and pitchers. For me, I'd prefer a balanced approach where they took some college and high school guys. Even if the High School guys burn out quick or fail immediately. That's ok. It's going to happen. I mean Willems is a good example of a guy that is high risk and high reward. There is some talent in there, but also some holes (especially hitting off speed). But the upside makes him interesting still.

100% Gunnar was obviously a fantastic pick as the "1st" pick of the 2nd round. Of course, that was not my point of this piece. The point was the fact that the college hitter approach has not really paid off and they have yet to draft and develop a major league pitcher after 5 drafts.

Tavera's issues are a lack of command and consistency. His change is still a plus pitch and at times he can sit mid-90s, but he just has struggled to find any kind of consistency in his professional career. He's an interesting arm, but I don't hold a ton of hope for him to turn into anything much unless he's a late bloomer.

I was looking at how the system has really struggled a bit this year and got me thinking about Elias' drafts. After the first two months of the minor league season, I would not be surprised if the Orioles take a pretty big drop in the MLB system rankings after this season. While Elias has certainly hit on his high draft choices like Rutschman, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser (it appears) and we hope Kjerstad, his drafted college hitters afterwards are not exactly killing it. Even his higher picks of late are not exactly looking special. Horvath, Wagner, Fabian, and even Bradfield to a lesser extended have not exactly set the world on fire. So I decided to take a closer look and what I've found is that Elias has really missed on a lot of college hitters after the 1st round despite focusing on them over pitching until the 2023 draft. Beavers, Norby, and Stowers and the only three college hitters drafted since 2020 from the 2nd round on to show major league starter's abilities (Not counting 2023 draft) and the jury is still out on what they will be at the major league level. Elias' only established major leaguer drafted after the 1st round as a college hitter is Joey Ortiz. This despite using 12 picks from 2nd-5th rounds on college hitters between 2019 and 2023. So while Elias has certainly hit on his 1st rounders and even late 1st rounders like Westburg, once it gets murkier in the 2nd round and after, he hasn't shown any significantly good drafting ability afterwards, especially when it comes to drafting college players. Heck, he hasn't even drafted one pitcher that has made the major league yet and he's been drafting since 2019. In fact, his best pitching prospects in his system were acquired in trade (Povich/McDermott) or out of the Dominican program (De Leon). Outside of the 2023 draft (which is too early to draw any type of indications from), Trace Bright (2021, 5th rounder) is the best pitching prospect in the system drafted by Elias and crew, and he's got heavy reliever vibes to him. How can Elias and company not draft and develop one pitcher yet? Well, for one, he basically ignored them through the first 7 rounds of the draft (5 from 2019-2022) until 2023 when he took 5 between the 2nd and 7th rounds. But how do you not even take a guy who you can develop from a average college starter and make him a major league reliever? Where are those fast trackers who can help in the bullpen? And people wonder why they are going into games short on relievers with guys like Vieira in the bullpen. So is it drafting, or development or a lack thereof. Now the development has done a good job with guys like Bradish and Kremer (two guys acquired in trades), but they've failed to develop any of their own drafted pitchers into a true major league starting prospect or even a reliever yet. The Orioles claim to be ahead of the game by drafting guys with good pitch shapes, spin rates, and IFV, but what has that produced? Are they ahead of the game? If they are, why have they not developed one pitcher that they've drafted into a major league pitcher yet after five drafts? Is it just drafting? Well outside of Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall (both 1st round picks by Gary Rajsich), Mike Baumann (2017, 3rd round) is the last pitcher this organization drafted and developed into a major league pitcher. Now the major league results have been great, and I'm not arguing that Elias/SIGBOT and crew have not totally turned this franchise around, but I am questioning their current drafting philosophies after the 1st round and their ability to identify and develop hitting and pitching out of college. Maybe to start, they can stop drafting guys like John Rhodes, Carter Young and Jud Fabian after poor college seasons and expect that they can develop them at the pro level. If they can't hit college pitching, they will not be successful at hitting professional pitchers. Also, maybe stay away from the high ERA guys with good arms/pitch shapes/etc and think they will suddenly find consistency at the pro level. Sounds good in theory, but the results have been an utter failure. Maybe they should look to high school more where they've found Gunnar and Coby Mayo. I know I'd rather see a high risk/high reward high school hitter taken in the 3rd or 4th round then going with the Reed Trimble or Donta Williams of the world (low ceiling, low reward). Sure, the draft can be a crap shoot and sure, there are always going to be more misses than hits, but there are way too many times I've scratched my head after looking at a college players stats when the Orioles drafted him, only to watch them fail at the professional level as well. Now maybe Baumeister or Forret (who looks promising) out of the 2023 draft will pop, or maybe they'll find a guy out of Bright, Young, Weston, Tavera, Strowd, Wells, Lord (if he ever gets healthy) or Cravey, but the results so far have not been good. After five drafts, hopefully they will start to make some adjustments on what works and what doesn't. Elias/SIGBOT and crew are a huge part of why this team has the best record in the AL over the last two years combined. But there is room for improvement with their drafting and development, especially now that they will not be getting those top-5 picks anymore.

The problem is it's because of the hitter's failures more than that the pitchers are high end guys. It's still only June and guys can have great second half's to erase bad starts, but not a ton to get excited about.

There are a lot more guys trending down then up so far this year, especially on the hitting side. I know hitting has been down overall, but not a lot of "breakout stories" so far this year and a lot of guys not taking a significant step forward.

Acevedo has been my under dog guy for a bit. He just looks like a ball player and has some nice tools, but he needs to keep this hot streak going and add some power.

More like other guys keep falling. lol He's been doing ok overall of late and I've heard the tools are good, but we'll see. He has not been overly impressive so far in his pro career but he's still young.

I don't know what some of these teams will do, but I think some of these teams are also seeing the risks of those 6+ year contracts for pitchers. I've rather add more $$ to each year than extend the years past 5.

Hardest hit ball of the night. That was for baseball savant-disabled @Moose Milligan

Well we know who's starting tomorrow at 3B.

She wasn't far off. lol

Vogelbach stopped and ate a sandwich on his way to first base on that one.

Haha, that look on Grayson face when he saw Hyde coming out before he could finish 7 is classic.