DrungoHazewood

Literally I was reconciling a travel claim to Visalia for one of my employees yesterday. I should have had him ask!

I would expect the velocity gap between relievers and starters to narrow over time, since starters are continuing to pitch max effort and fewer innings. The biggest difference was probably in the 90s when starters were still kind of expected to half try to get to the 7th or 8th most games and there were already one-inning relievers.

That's as much a reflection on the quality of pitchers at Norfolk as anything else. Pick his last year in Norfolk, he allowed 4.44 runs per nine. The run environment for the Tides was 4.3 runs per nine, with the Tides allowing 4.44 runs/nine. In '16 he allowed 3.56 runs per nine, in an environment of 3.77. In '15 he was much better, but in '14 he was much worse (although both of those coincided and matched wild swings in Norfolk/IL run context - in '15 the Tides allowed less than 500 runs all year). Overall he's allowed 4.13 runs/nine in AAA. An average AAA pitcher is somewhere below replacement level. Rule of thumb is If you give up around 3.75-4.00 runs a game in Norfolk you're a replacement-level pitcher in the majors.

Sounds like the kind of platitudes Bordick would say. And it is the Orioles' system.

It's 2019. My 12-year-old soccer playing kid throws 88. So I exaggerate, but "occasionally hits 95" is getting darned close to MLB average.

Outfielders since WWII with an OPS+ between 74 and 80 through age 27 (min 1000 PAs): Rk Player Year OPS+ PA From To Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO 1 Delino DeShields 2019 77 1600 2015 2019 22-26 441 1375 254 334 60 14 15 103 167 1 362 2 Jake Marisnick 2018 79 1532 2013 2018 22-27 565 1399 197 316 61 7 44 144 83 5 456 3 Felix Pie 2011 77 1051 2007 2011 22-26 398 964 127 240 44 13 17 97 68 1 214 4 Tony Gwynn 2010 75 1054 2006 2010 23-27 366 924 112 225 26 12 5 56 107 7 161 5 Chris Burke 2007 80 1155 2004 2007 24-27 359 1020 148 254 61 5 20 94 80 1 194 6 Cory Sullivan 2007 80 1020 2005 2007 25-27 337 904 130 254 47 15 8 74 69 4 208 7 Brian Hunter 1998 79 2302 1994 1998 23-27 520 2124 307 576 100 17 15 144 141 1 365 8 Marc Newfield 1998 76 1051 1993 1998 20-25 355 957 98 238 53 1 22 132 69 4 162 9 Tom Goodwin 1996 75 1230 1991 1996 22-27 381 1103 176 309 32 8 5 67 84 0 166 10 David Hulse 1995 74 1243 1992 1995 24-27 342 1148 189 310 32 20 5 97 68 3 188 11 Darren Lewis 1995 75 2287 1990 1995 22-27 579 2022 303 503 58 23 9 135 189 0 227 12 Brady Anderson 1991 77 1273 1988 1991 24-27 390 1081 139 237 42 11 10 88 135 8 210 13 Herm Winningham 1989 77 1466 1984 1989 22-27 581 1325 148 318 47 19 14 112 122 15 293 14 Marvell Wynne 1987 78 2001 1983 1987 23-27 595 1832 215 455 73 20 18 144 133 5 263 15 George Wright 1986 79 2325 1982 1986 23-27 627 2160 231 529 88 18 42 208 126 21 314 16 John Shelby 1985 78 1015 1981 1985 23-27 356 950 134 233 36 9 19 86 45 2 185 17 Hector Cruz 1980 79 1658 1973 1980 20-27 554 1479 170 332 65 9 32 185 157 15 289 18 Tony Scott 1979 77 1370 1973 1979 21-27 466 1249 158 315 47 17 10 135 94 11 223 19 Rusty Torres 1976 80 1100 1971 1976 22-27 440 951 107 198 36 4 21 83 117 12 177 20 Don Hahn 1975 75 1149 1969 1975 20-26 454 997 104 235 38 4 7 74 122 9 158 21 Boots Day 1974 76 1289 1969 1974 21-26 471 1151 146 295 28 6 8 98 95 11 141 22 Bill Voss 1971 80 1151 1965 1971 21-27 397 1029 107 238 21 9 18 118 101 11 145 23 Cap Peterson 1969 80 1289 1962 1969 19-26 536 1170 106 269 44 5 19 122 101 11 195 24 Bill Robinson 1969 75 1009 1966 1969 23-26 316 917 89 190 33 11 16 93 70 10 150 25 Jose Tartabull 1966 78 1300 1962 1966 23-27 463 1192 154 316 36 21 2 78 77 0 92 26 Nelson Mathews 1965 78 1076 1960 1965 18-23 306 978 93 218 39 14 22 98 88 13 248 27 Bob Borkowski 1953 74 1046 1950 1953 24-27 363 971 110 246 30 9 15 92 66 3 140 28 Hal Jeffcoat 1952 76 1706 1948 1952 23-27 523 1590 190 404 84 15 16 143 81 3 202 29 Lloyd Merriman 1951 75 1038 1949 1951 24-26 309 944 113 230 50 10 11 93 82 4 93 Brady didn't just have the best career among players on this list, he lapped the field three times. Tom Goodwin (.670 OPS, 244 SB) is probably #2. Brady and Felix Pie were neck-and-neck through 27.

Through the age of 27 Brady hit .219/.313/.306. His peers, his top comps, were guys like Gerald Young, Stan Javier, Marvell Wynn, Herm Winningham, Cecil Espy, Curtis Goodwin. Tony Gwynn... Junior. Those guys have everything click about one time in a hundred. I wouldn't generalize from extreme outliers.

Our own Jose Bautista! Or maybe not. I'd be fine with an average LFer who doesn't flip his bat and get cold-cocked by Rougned Odor.

He's 26, he has over 3000 minor league plate appearances and a .747 OPS, and he's primarily a corner outfielder. His brief major league trials have been dramatically better than his minor league resume would suggest. Last year he and Cedric Mullins had the same OPS in AAA. Except that Mullins is a year younger, can handle CF, and played in a terrible hitter's park. Joey Rickard's career AAA OPS is 50 points higher than Smith's, and that's all at Norfolk, too. Mike Yastrzemski is a few years older but his AAA OPS is just three points lower than Smith's, and he was let go by the Orioles. It is exceptionally rare for a player to hit .100 points better in the majors than in AAA. Even more rare for someone who wasn't rushed through the minors.

I loved it when the Marlins' AAA affiliate was in Edmonton. By Google Maps that's a 45 hour drive without stops. You can imagine the talk about shuffling the roster. "Hey, we need a 5th starter who's not gassed on Thursday. Where's Fred Smith? 3066 miles from here, skip. Best case he's a 2-stop flight, through customs, and 17 hours from Miami. I guess Thursday is a bullpen day..." Edit: So I was curious. I pulled up Kayak, and this Sunday you can get a one-way, one-stop flight from Edmonton to Miami for $260 on Air Canada (via Toronto) that leaves at 11pm and gets into Miami at 11 am. Not exactly the 45 minute hop from BWI to Norfolk, but maybe workable in most cases.

Except his K and BB numbers are both below average.

Or a spitter.

I'm sure he just started eatin' more vegetables and throwin' the old medicine ball around. That was after the testing started and everyone was 100% clean. Didn't Hank Aaron and Willie Mays get released at 24 and lead the league in everything at 40? Happens all the time... or am I mis-remembering?

I don't know. Bonds and Ortiz never did.

Larry Bigbie played when Rochester and then Ottawa were the Orioles' affiliates. He never played a single home game in Norfolk.

I think when you're posting that someone is hitting .400 you're obligated to mention it's in 12 PAs. Ryan Minor once had a major league season where he hit .429. 26 Orioles have hit .400 since 1980.

Yep, on my 15th birthday.

It's a very nice ballpark. Kind of halfway between what you get in Bowie/Frederick/Blue Crabs and a MLB park. Probably seats 15,000. Decent food, good seats everywhere. Easy to get in and out of. And weighing the impact of an 80 park factor is the first week of SABR 101. You know what would be fun? Having Norfolk be an affiliate of the Rockies. A .750 OPS in Norfolk would probably be an .825 in Colorado.

The best and worst story of the '86 Mets was how Gooden missed the ticker-tape victory parade in NYC because he was passed out in a drug dealer's apartment. Or was that Strawberry?

Wasn't McDowell one of the class clowns on the '86 Mets? I guess it's something to be a notable character on a team of eccentrics and drug addicts and partiers and the like.

You should read The Politics of Glory by Bill James. It's 15-20 years old now, but goes through a good timeline and story of how and why the various Hall of Fame voting systems came about. The quick summary was that they had a poor voting system from day one in 1936. It was a system much like the 2016 Republican primary - 500 candidates, and hundreds of voters and almost no guidance on how to logically sort them out. Because the writers didn't have much information to go on prior to the first Baseball Encyclopedia in 1969, they often went on stories and legends and half-truths. And the amazing backlog of candidates and the voting system meant obvious candidates couldn't get to 75%. There were years in the 1950s where people we now think of as inner-circle HOFers were eligible, but nobody was elected at all. It was so discombobulated that Lefty Grove got votes after he'd already been elected. The various Committees were formed in an attempt to get someone elected so they could have Hall of Fame weekend in Cooperstown to draw paying customers in. It's really been 60 years now that players who barely got any attention from the writers got in by the back door, often because they had personal connections to members of small Committees. Duke Snider took about a decade to get in, but George Kell just had to convince like 7 of 12 committee members and in he went. There are years from the 1920s where roughly 25% of all PAs are from HOFers, because Frankie Frisch played then, he headed up the Vet's Commitee in the 60s and early 70s, and he managed to get a very large percentage of Giant and Cardinal players from his era inducted. Those are some of the worst, least-deserving selections of all time. In short, the reason the Committees exist is they had a terrible voting system which they tried to fix with an equally-poorly thought out series of Committees. The end result is that the inner circle guys eventually get in (minus PED guys and gamblers), but below them it's a crapshoot.

Somehow I was watching on TV the day that Gaetti started two around-the-horn triple plays against the Red Sox.

What it tells me is that having your buddies on a Committee can veto the overwhelming decision of the voters of the BBWAA. The writers never gave Baines more than 6% of the vote. That's in line with his value from metrics such as WAR.

What hate? Harold Baines is an awesome guy, and I loved watching him on the O's. Eastern Shore native. What's not to like? But that doesn't change the fact that his career was about 75% as valuable as John Olerud's. Baines will be looked at in 20 years as a good dude who benefited from yet another bizarre and confused vote of an ill-conceived and obviously biased Veteran's Committee. Unfortunately that's basically how he's looked at today. Here's an exercise: lay out a convincing case that Baines deserves induction and Keith Hernandez doesn't. Baines basically didn't play the field the last 15 years of his career. Hernandez won 11 gold gloves, and that's validated by modern metrics as he's a +117 run fielder. Baines, mostly not having any fielding responsibility, led the league in slugging once. That was his only league-leading mark in anything. Hernandez led the league in runs twice, doubles, walks, batting average, and OBP. Hernandez had a 128 OPS+, Baines 121. Hernandez played on two World Series champs, Baines none. Hernandez won an MVP award, Baines never finished higher than 9th. Hernandez out-WARs Baines 60-38. Clearly, unambiguously, Hernandez was a vastly superior player. But he peaked out at 10% of the BBWAA vote and hasn't been able to convince a committee of his value. Baines peaked out at 6%, but got a committee with a number of his former managers, GMs, and peers to vote him in. And that's just one example. There are literally over 200 position players with more than 38 rWAR who are not in the Hall of Fame.

Yes, that was pretty much the response. If society and government has collapsed and we're living in anarchy, what good is some paper that the now-defunct government backed and gave value to? This same individual also has a prodigious arsenal and hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammo, presumably to protect himself from the marauding invaders looking to steal his $75k when it all goes down. Whatever. I've read The Stand. It'll all work out.