DrungoHazewood
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Everything posted by DrungoHazewood
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(Apologies for taking this post way deeper than anyone needed) The 2013 Orioles won 85 games. With Reynolds instead of Davis they probably win something like 78 games. That was the year they traded for Scott Feldman and Bud Norris, so it's pretty likely they'd have tried to replace Reynolds and his .699 OPS. In 2015 they probably win about 75 games trading Davis for Reynolds' 93 OPS+. Again they were in win-now mode, and probably throw prospects overboard for a Reynolds replacement. In 2016 they made the 2nd wildcard, barely. Davis was worth about two wins over Reynolds, so in a vacuum they miss the playoffs. Reynolds only played 118 games in Colorado, so he would probably have been worse playing every day in the AL East. Yes, this is an academic exercise with lots of unknowables. But it's pretty likely that just replacing Davis with Reynolds would have resulted in losing records in 2013 and 2015, and no playoff game in 2016. We've turned a five-year run with the best record in the AL east into a continuation of the 1998-2011 period, with 2012 as the outlier. Maybe 2014 happens, but I have my doubts coming on the heels of a losing 2013.
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Since 2013 Reynolds has been worth one win, Davis 13. I enjoyed the good Davis years. I'll take that over seven years of replacement-level performance with a peak of 1.5 wins, even with the contract.
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Try using abstract thought.
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Sports always have exemptions from the real world. Some make sense, some don't. If you throw baseball anywhere near someone who's not expecting it you could get arrested. If you're ice skating and start a fistfight you're probably going to jail. A typical free safety-wide receiver collision is probably a felony if you do it at the coffee mess in your office. If you violate the Sherman anti-trust act in any business except baseball you're going to court. If you nonsensically apply rules and laws designed for other contexts to sports, then sports probably can't exist.
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My wife took some ketchup and mustard packets from the pool bar at the place we're staying yesterday, and didn't even buy anything. We're now living under assumed names in a fortified compound in Central America, with a wing reserved for Manny's family. #outlawlife
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If the NFL films guy couldn't say that the 1985 Packers-Bears game was more gruesome than the Battle of the Somme would they sell half as many VHS tapes?
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I don't know why you're being so lenient. He physically assaulted an umpire. Tell me why he shouldn't be in prison doing hard labor on a chain gang for 6-10 years. I mean, he does have a long history of psychotic behavior. These kind of people shouldn't be allowed in civilized society. Won't you think of the children?
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That's a comically early reading of Manny's performance, attitude and contract. You've just indicted a 10-year deal on the basis of three weeks. Literally three weeks ago he was OPSing .815 in a pretty extreme pitcher's park. Oh, and even with the brief slump Manny has been as valuable as Harper this year.
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Plus defenders with room to move down the defensive spectrum age as well as anybody. That does not describe Davis or Harper.
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I think he was the beneficiary of the fact there were no great third basemen before Mathews. So when people wrote books or articles on the greatest player at each position somebody had to be the third baseman, so they gave it to the guy who hit .320. Him or Jimmy Collins, but Collins played half his career in the 1800s, and even in 1950 that seemed like a long time ago. But hitting .320 in 1920-1940 was kind of like hitting .280 today. He hit a good, solid 6 homers a year and walked 37 times. And at least by modern figuring he wasn't a great fielder. Career OPS+ of 107, peak of 124 (which is pretty close to Machado and Arenado's career marks). Led the league in games once, triples once, and sac hits twice. By JAWS Traynor is the 61st-best third baseman of all time. 26 spots behind Doug DeCinces.
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Not to go too far afield, but third base is a strange position. All of the top 10 played since WWII. And it's not even really controversial. Home Run Baker has a semi-decent case for being #10 if you make Edgar and Molitor DHs. But that's it. No one else is even remotely plausible for the top 10 who played prior to the war. When Eddie Mathews was a rookie the all time record for homers by a third baseman was 178 by Harlond Clift. Mathews finished with 512. There's a good chance that Longoria, Beltre, Machado, Arenado, and Donaldson will end up all being better than just about everyone from the first 75 years of MLB history.
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We're in a pretty darned good era for third basemen. Manny is 5th in the 2010s in rWAR and he has about a 75% chance of going to the Hall. Beltre is in. Arenado is about on the same track as Manny. Donaldson didn't have his first full season until 27, but was as good as the others. And Longoria looks past peak, but he could retire among the top 15 third basemen of all time. There are only 15 or 16 HOF third baseman, and that includes Kell, Traynor, and Lindstrom who have already been passed by all the current guys I just mentioned.
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atomic said, ad nauseum, that Manny was worth roughly a 4/50 deal and anyone who'd go over that was on hard-core hallucenogenic drugs. I may be paraphrasing.
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Just start with the assumption that Manny is an awful human, a bad ballplayer, and a miserable waste of resources for a stupid team, and it's relatively easy to get to "worried about Manny". If you're starting with a question and then trying to somewhat objectively find answers you're doing it all wrong.
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Yes, isn't that a given?
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Dylan Bundy has more WAR this season than Bryce Harper. Or Hanser Alberto. Ryan Zimmerman ($18M salary) has been way worse than Gerardo Parra. If you want to pass judgment based on two months you can make all kinds of cartoon comparisons.
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Neither was Brooksie.
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Yea, but since then he's been worth -1.1 wins in less than 400 PAs. A .650 OPS with a -7 glove in LF is how you get flat-out released at 26. But I'm guessing someone will pick him up and put him in AAA. Or he could play in an indy league or Japan for the next decade.
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That was my first thought. Vaughn was only a few years older than me. -
Nick's overall numbers aren't that different than last year, except that he's hitting a lot more ground balls. He has Richie Martin's G/F ratio.
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What's a "plug-in-play contract" player? There have been 287 players in MLB history to reach 1000 RBI. In value they range from Dante Bichette (5.7 career WAR) to Bonds and Ruth at 162. Median is 51 wins. 109 of the 287 are in the Hall. Seven active 1000 RBI players: Kemp, Encarnacion, Cruz, Braun, Cano, Cabrera, Pujols. The last three will probably go to the Hall. Eight players, including BJ Surhoff, got to 1000 RBI with an OPS+ under 100. Tommy Corcoran, a shortstop active from 1890-1907 got to 1000 RBI despite a 75 OPS+ and no seasons with more than 94 RBI. So if you retire with 1000+ RBI that gives you about a 40% chance of having had a HOF career.
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I expect an exclusivity agreement, wherein all players born south of Key West, FL on or after January 1, 2001 become the property of the Baltimore Orioles in perpetuity.
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Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?
DrungoHazewood replied to Obando's topic in Orioles Talk
After he left the majors he spent a little time in Japan. Was last seen in the Atlantic League in 2017. It is surprising he's only 33. The last time he put on an Oriole uniform was before the 2012 turn-around. He was two eras ago. -
Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?
DrungoHazewood replied to Obando's topic in Orioles Talk
Another benefit of an open league with promotion/relegation: Everyone already has a team at some level. No one ever moves (or almost no one - there's Milton Keynes Dons as the exception to prove the rule). So there's no blackmailing cities and taxpayers with threats of leaving. -
Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?
DrungoHazewood replied to Obando's topic in Orioles Talk
If teams had some skin in the game this would never happen. In other countries where taxpayers usually have nothing to do with stadiums you'll keep one for a century, just doing renovations and upgrades. I think the US is pretty unusual in throwing away $750M, 50,000 seat sports arenas every 20 years. Tottenham Hotspur, my English football team, was in White Hart Lane from 1899-2017. And when they finally built a new one next door they paid for it! The resulting overruns and delays meant they couldn't sign any free agents for a full year. When it's somebody else's money you just don't care to be responsible.
