DrungoHazewood
-
Posts
31314 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
138
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Everything posted by DrungoHazewood
-
Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?
DrungoHazewood replied to Obando's topic in Orioles Talk
Wait... what? Sorry to derail, but something is wrong when taxpayers are regularly replacing reasonably state-of-the-art 20 or 25-year-old stadiums. The Rangers' current park is newer than OPACY, and will now be reconfigured for the new XFL. Which I'm sure will last at least a full season before going bankrupt. -
The "so" is that all teams, even those well over .500, have players with problems.
-
Related question: would you rather have a modern baseball 91 OPS+, say 2015/17 Chris Davis with a .200/.300/.420 line, or a 91 OPS+ throwback Alberto line of .303/.330/.390? I think I'd take Alberto, even if the production is roughly equal. More action, less standing and watching and walking around.
-
I guess that depends on what else he does. You basically described Ichiro.
-
Luis Sojo has multiple WS rings.
-
Confirmation bias can't be contained by just one thread.
-
Let's say Manny would have 300 homers over the next decade in a neutral park. 150 at home, 150 on the road. For him to lose 50 homers, that would be 100 at home, 150 on the road. For him to lose 100 that would be 50 at home 150 on the road. The most extreme home run split I know of (in the live ball era) is Mel Ott. He had 323 homers at home (Polo Grounds), and 188 on the road. 63% of homers at home. If Manny had 63% of his homers on the road in this hypothethical situation he'd have 150 on the road and 88 at home. That would mean he "lost" 62 homers to his home park. According to multiple sites PETCO has a HR park factor of about 86. I think the calculation works out that Mel Ott's Polo Grounds factor was 63. Meaning Manny should lose 14% of his neutral park home home runs to PETCO, or .14 x 150 = 21 homers. If he'd stayed in Baltimore he probably would have gained 10 or 15 compared to neutral. So... OPACY Manny hits 315, neutral park Manny hits 300, and PETCO Manny hits about 279. Somebody check my math...
-
Data, please.
-
According to the Bill James favorite toy he has about a 30% chance at 3000 hits and about a 47% chance at 500 homers. I used about three times his current totals to guess how many he'll have of each this year. I think the favorite toy as implemented by ESPN underrates Manny because it estimates he'll only play about another eight years. It's a very simple tool.
-
Manny probably has 12-15 years left unless he gets hurt. Even at a very disappointing two wins a year he's going to be at about the same career value as someone like Andre Dawson. He could totally crash and burn, only amass another 10 wins, and still be in the neighborhood of Jim Rice, Ralph Kiner, Mickey Cochrane, Lou Brock, etc. He's already ahead of 10 or 12 current HOFers.
-
There are a lot of ways to slice this, but there are 27 non-active players who had 30+ rWAR through 26, and had at least a +25 in fielding runs. Manny's obviously active, but he's at 36 rWAR and +76 fielding runs, so pretty high on the list. By my count 23 of the 27 players on the list are in the Hall or will be (Bonds). The counter-examples are Jimmy Sheckard, Charlie Keller, Andruw Jones, and Sherry Magee. Keller's career never really recovered from WWII, Magee is better than any number of actual HOFers, Sheckard had a long, winding career that was comparable to Magee, and I think Jones eventually goes in. Pretty much everyone with Manny's resume through 26 goes to the Hall or (very occasionally) just misses.
-
I guess I pull the trigger to keep up appearances as the board's leading Severino skeptic.
-
You are consistent.
-
Nobody wants to hear this, but a 30-game hot streak doesn't transform a waiver wire pickup into a basket of prospects.
-
Yes, you're very obviously cherry picking.
-
With the Nats Severino walked in 8.9% of PAs. With the O's it 10.0%. Small uptick. With the Nats Severino had one brief, 33-game stint in AAA where he OPS'd .756. His overall AAA OPS is .664. His career minor league OPS is .642, and his career OPS as a pro, including this year, is .645.
-
I never say that someone used PEDs without real evidence like an admission or a failed test. I don't think circumstantial evidence amounts to much. People had crazy spikes in performance in 1890 or 1920 or 1940, and I'm guessing those mostly weren't 'roids. Could Bautista have been on undetectable designer 'roids? Sure. Could he have taken his untapped natural ability, moved up on top of the plate, and drastically altered his swing path and approach, while channeling some Satanic help? Yep, that could explain it, too. Yes, he went from 13 homers in a partial season to 54 homers in 161 games. But he'd had minor league season of 24, he was Rule 5ed out of A ball and bounced to four organizations in a year. PEDs exist, people still take them, but unless there's some evidence I try to give the benefit of the doubt.
-
Fun fact: Tim Beckham and Severino both have higher HR/FB rates this year than Giancarlo Stanton did last year.
-
Brooks Robinson, Julio Lugo, Matt Wieters and Alejandro De Aza all have about the same career OPS.
-
There are outliers, and then there is silly. Jose Bautista a Rule 5 refugee sent from A ball to four MLB teams and back to AAA (where he had an .800-something OPS). Severino hit like Paul Bako in the minors, and had a .501 OPS in 200 PAs with the Nats. Even if he becomes Charles Johnson (.880 OPS in AA, by the way) this would be pretty close to unprecedented. I'll be more than thrilled if he ends up as a .240/.300/.430 guy with a real MLB career.
-
I'd love for Pedro Severino to have been bitten by a radioactive scorpion and is now Yogi Berra. There just aren't that many 25-year-old guys with .650 OPSes in AAA who turn into Jimmie Foxx overnight and have it stick.
-
It might be fly ball distance (average and how they're distributed). If an average fly ball this year is going 10 feet more than in the past, some players will see more go over the fence than others. Perhaps guys who previously had 30-40 homer power might not see as much of a gain as 10 homer guys because of the distribution of fly balls. Maybe. My rationale went back to strike zone changes. When they moved the margins of the zone in 1963 some players were killed, others (I believe short, low-walk guys) went on like nothing happened.
-
I guess why not? But he has, what... 120 PAs? What I want to know is how long they're going to keep using super bounce balls in major league games. Any time there's a change in playing conditions some players are disproportionately advantaged or disadvantaged. Severino appears to be benefiting more than most, as his performance has to be in his 99th percentile. Last year he hit like Chris Davis. This year it's 2015 Chris Davis. My quick take is that this is wholly unsustainable in the long run, but I'd love to be wrong.
-
Maybe. I think they're probably tanking the season so they can get that bassoon player from Colorado State at 1:1. But everyone knows you don't win championships with bassoon players. Trumpets are where it's at, which they'd know if they'd embraced analytics.
-
I think I was good with the deal because they needed an outfielder, Parra was playing well, and what are the odds that a Grade B- pitching prospect the O's developed turns out well? Sure, he had a 2.83 ERA for Norfolk. But that year everyone at Norfolk had a 2.83 (actually the team ERA was 3.17). Mike Wright was 9-1, 2.22 with the same K/BB numbers as Davies' teammate. Of course Parra made '89 Keith Moreland look okay, and whatta you know... the O's can develop a pitcher, at least if he doesn't actually have to play for them.
