Say O!

I’d much rather sign Burnes who has been guaranteed 190-200IP/yr whereas both Snell and Fried haven’t really touched that volume and have several seasons in the low 100s. Color me a bit confused as to why OH dismisses Burnes dominant Sept (where he rediscovered cutter and K rate followed) and focuses on his decline in K rate but advocates for someone like Fried whose career average is <9K/9. Sign Burnes, find platoon OF, trade Mounty (go with Mayo), pickup options on BP arms. Then plug holes if needed midseason via trade. And if Burnes chooses elsewhere, I’d rather shorter term deal for KiKuchi than the years and $$$s that either Fried or Snell will demand.

I’m curious to see how the offensive moves this offseason will play out, especially in regard to Elias comments during the end of season presser. While it may be just his typical GM speak, Elias did give the impression that his approach to offensive construction may be different. So how to reconcile that or was it just bluster? Some have speculated trade off of less K/power for more OBP/speed. Does that portend to letting Santander move on and then trade Mounty? RHH OF like O’Neill is kinda in the same power but high swing and miss mold.

Dont let facts get in the way of another false OH narrative

Truth. That and also the CWS not being historically bad (just regular bad).

Mullins platoon splits vs RHP per bb-ref 2024 = .245avg / .325obp / .441slg for .766ops career = .264avg / .333obp / .456slg for .788ops So while Cedric does perform better against RHP and brings the speed element, I would prefer having leadoff guy (who gets the most at-bats on the team) with .at least 350+ OBP and .800+ OPS. Batting Cedric leadoff also creates need for RHH pinch hitter whenever in late inning situations and that is not something that want immediately in front of 2–3-4 hitters. Cedric also is problematic in the heart of the order given his infield fly tendencies. To me he is the perfect 7 or 8 hole hitter on a good ball club.

Billy Beane also famously said “My (expletive) doesn’t work in the playoffs.”

Hyde is extension of front office and it’s analytics based decisions. In-game maneuvers (BP matchups, pinch hitters, steals, baserunning sends) and daily lineups are evaluated every day and are reflection of probabilities/decision science informed by analytics dept. If Hyde acted independently or went counter to those influences he would not be here. The manager hunch or expertise is legacy artifact in todays game (at least for the Orioles). Now ongoing player development (or shortfalls) is where the other coaches/assts come into play both at major and minor league level. These guys are also selected by the front office and I would expect some potential changes here that would be healthy as a result of Elias & team year-end review.

Grichuk would be a perfect complement to Os roster as RHH OF with good platoon splits, however he has mutual option for $6M next year (after making only $1.5M this season). Do you see him or DBacks not picking that up?

In the market and $$$ for SP = Mets, Cubs, BOS, WAS and SFG (depending on Snell opt-out). That’s enough chairs when music stops for Burnes and Fried to cash in, and still ample for second tier Eovaldi, Manea, Kikuchi, Flaherty.

Thanks for detailing these out.

Can you show your math? Curious to see the itemization, particularly on the comp increase side. I was eyeballing using fangraphs roster resource.

To build off your point, Elias quotes suggest that the intent is for payroll to be higher in 2025 than 2024. The only way I see that happening is to sign premium SP (or re-sign Burnes). Simple shortcut math 2025 Eflin offsets 2024 Burnes salary, leaving $25M to fill for 2024 Santander+Kimbrel. Arb raises and full year Seranthony + Soto may wash to neutral-ish with no Hayes, Means (or at most $5M more in 2025). Net/net that leaves $20-$25M to stay flat. So IMO if payroll is to rise year-on-year, it has to be from adding premium pitching (given Santander as QO and leave as FA).

Mountys at bats were not even competitive and were emblematic of his lack of discipline/awareness. One was a first pitch sword at off speed in the dirt. That can’t happen to a major league ballplayer. As much as Mounty tantalizes with swing speed and hard hit rates, it’s so frustrating to watch him fail at basic concepts routinely.

And Burnes tied for 2nd in MLB with 23 quality starts — link 1. Wheeler = 26 2. Burnes , Skubal = 23

If you did not attend the game, IMO you don’t have the high ground to comment on attendance (or lack thereof). Facts (todays figures): Os = 41,506 Astros = 40,617 Brewers = 40,022