Warehouse

I take the point in the general, but Kremer’s average 1st inning velo was 94.3 over 2022-2023 and his avg 6th inning velo was 94.5. Irvin averaged 91.1 in the 1st and 91.0 in the 6th.

I expect we’ll prefer right handed relievers vs left given we have more depth with the latter. RH RP targets Hunter Harvey - WAS Ryan Helsey - STL Michael Kopech - CHW Brock Stewart - MIN Griffin Jax - MIN Anthony Bender - MIA Calvin Faucher - MIA Cole Sands - MIN Ryan Walker - SFG LH RP targets Tanner Scott - MIA Steven Okert - MIN Robert Garcia - WAS JoJo Romero - STL Kody Funderbunk - MIN Long shots to be traded Kenley Jansen - BOS Emmanuel Clase - CLE Mason Miller - OAK David Bednar - PIT Jhoan Duran - MIN Gabe Speier (L) - SEA Borderline - Dependent on FO evaluation Carlos Estevez - LAA Luis Garcia - LAA Lucas Erczeg - OAK Giovanny Gallegos - STL Colin Holderman - PIT Andrew Kittredge - STL Landon Roupp - SFG Victor Vodnik - COL Aroldis Chapman (L) - PIT Erik Miller (L) - SFG Andrew Nardi (L) - MIA Matt Moore (L) - LAA Ryan Borucki (L) - PIT

One watchpoint is Povich doesn’t really hold his velocity very well late in games - he averages about 93 mph in the first inning and about 91 mph in the sixth inning.

Norby and Stowers aren’t bringing a difference-making starting pitcher (maybe you meant Mounty in the package also). I don’t think anyone would hesitate (least of all Elias) if that opportunity presented itself. I’d part with Norby and Stowers for a difference making relief pitcher like Hunter Harvey, Lucas Erczeg, Griffin Jax, Anthony Bender, Calvin Faucher, or Ryan Helsey. They can also have Mike Bauman and for some of those targets, I’d also throw in Seth Johnson.

Kjerstad Norfolk splits (2023-2024) Vs lefties wOBA = .347 xwOBA = .336 K% = 21.5% BB% = 5.6% Whiff = 28.7% Hard hit = 41.0% Vs righties wOBA = .426 xwOBA = .377 K% = 20.5% BB% = 9.9% Whiff = 24.3% Hard hit = 47.2%

But not if they bring in lefty and Rutchman and Santander switch sides. That being said, their only lefty relief options are Jose Suarez, who has thrown 53 pitches between yesterday and Saturday and also isn’t very good, and Matt Moore, who is a bona fide reverse splits guy. Still, I think Westburg bats 6th so he isn’t back-to-back with Tony. Cowser or Mullins would bat 5th, with the other batting 7th.

Below is the detail. Month Year Level Pitches Whiff% Whiff% (<2 stk) Whiff% (2 stk) Whiff-diff C-stk % SwStk% CSW% Foul % (<2 stk) K% March/April 2023 AAA 482 32.6% 33.3% 30.9% 2.4% 12.5% 16.6% 29.1% 14.0% 22.0% May 2023 AAA 337 30.6% 28.7% 32.4% -3.7% 14.7% 14.1% 28.8% 13.7% 22.4% June 2023 AAA 309 26.9% 25.3% 30.4% -5.1% 13.3% 12.6% 25.9% 16.3% 18.8% June 2023 MLB 59 27.6% 33.3% 18.2% 15.1% 15.3% 13.6% 28.8% 17.1% 13.3% July 2023 MLB 236 25.2% 21.1% 30.2% -9.1% 15.3% 13.1% 28.4% 18.1% 28.8% August 2023 MLB 334 26.6% 31.6% 20.0% 11.6% 16.2% 12.6% 28.7% 12.3% 18.4% September 2023 MLB 240 24.8% 19.4% 30.6% -11.2% 18.8% 11.7% 30.4% 17.9% 31.7% March/April 2024 MLB 311 37.7% 43.3% 28.8% 14.5% 12.9% 18.3% 31.2% 9.0% 20.0% Westy AAA total 2023 AAA 1128 30.2% 29.7% 31.4% -1.7% 13.7% 14.5% 28.1% 14.5% 21.3% Westy MLB total ‘23-;24 MLB 1180 28.9% 30.5% 26.7% 3.8% 15.6% 14.1% 29.7% 13.9% 23.4% AAA league avg 2023 AAA 26.8% 27.1% 26.5% 0.6% 15.4% 12.2% 27.6% 14.9% 22.4% MLB league avg ‘23-;24 MLB 25.7% 26.4% 24.9% 1.5% 16.5% 12.2% 28.7% 15.8% 22.7%

I don’t necessarily buy the argument that there is nothing he can learn in AAA. I’d like to see him get his whiff to 25% or less against non-Charlotte Knights pitching. I think Elias will give him through Sunday to show progress and if not he’ll go down before the Yankees series. Some 2B vets may also have opt-outs triggering around this time. I don’t think Elias will want to waste one Jackson’s six full service years in 2024 if he’s going to struggle.

And his 2023 avg EV was 86.5 with 35% hard hit rate.

Westburg is a good player but he is 3rd percentile in swing and miss. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jordan-westburg-676059

Scott Boras? David Rubinstein? Matt Holliday? Kyle Goon? Sports Guy? Can of Corn? Ben Clemens?

Burnes had a 25.5% K rate last year and has a 25.4% K rate so far this year. His whiff rate was 28.7% last year and is 26.0% this year. Looking at Baseball Savant run value and Stuff+, it’s pretty that his breaking pitches, especially his slider, have been less effective for him this year than in the past. That seems like something that is likely to improve as the season progresses. Other than his breaking pitches, I don’t see any signs of drop-off.

You’re right - it should be Westburg at 2B and Urias at 3B.

It will be a different person replacing Jackson’s role vs replacing his roster spot. Urias would start most games in infield, with Mateo getting some starts against lefties. The person taking Jackson’s roster spot will be in a 26th man role and won’t start more than once a week. The 26th man spot will either be a LH 2B/3B option, a RH bench bat, a LH bench bat, or a third catcher.

Eduardo Escobar, Tony Kemp, Kolten Wong, or Roughned Odor If Elias/Hyde are OK with not having a lefty 2B option, then they could play Urias/Mateo there and insert Norby as DH on days that we face a lefty and McCann isn’t catching.