geschinger

Yes, although that would be an obvious mistake - throwing away shots at compensation from a prospect as highly regarded as he is now for ~12 days would not be a smart decision. My hope is that they don't plan to play service manipulation games and bring him up Aug 23 or later and manage it so he stays under 130 ABs.

I'm hoping Pena gets hot and being on maybe the best team in baseball is enough to hold off Adley continuing to play at a higl level. Playoffs would defitely ease the sting of losing a year combined with not earning the compensation pick.

I think this is exactly right. I know we often discount GM-speak but I think he told us the truth about his approach is to stick to the plan when he said this:

Agreed and from what I remember from his scouting reports his derfensive woes are probably an aberration. He has the attributes to stick at SS. In an alternative universe where we were drafting today with those two available my pick would be GH but anyone preferring BW can make a great case as well.

If they didn't think he was ready defensively going into 2020 to play in the OF in MLB games he would not have ready in September 2019. Bottom line, while I don't think the Orioles were at all thinking about a 7th year I do think there was some element of manipulation. Making sure they got 2023 as a pre-arb year is a obviously beneficial to the org and I expect he's replaced by the end of 2024 in any case. I think Bart is no different than the 10 top 100 prospects from 2019 who debuted shortly after the service time dealine - clear examples of the service manipulation that is so common across the game. Those guys didn't magically become ready so soon after the deadline. Unless we have a scenario like Kelenic where the Mariners allegedly told him if he signed an extension he'd be brought up at the end of 2020 and when he didn't they played the service time game w/him the next year, there is plausible spin that teams can apply to just about any of these individual players. We're all smart enough to know the real reason is service time manipulation.

Fair enough. But just curious - if you see a reasonable arguement for Bart not making the team, why not for Mountcastle as well? The only position available early on was in the OF and he's a guy that over 5 years of MiLB had accumulated only 221 innings in the OF. If they concluded he needed time and reps in camp before he was ready, why would that not be a reasonable arguement?

And he still had only 22 games in total, over A+ ball when he made his debut after the Giants guaranteed he wouldn't qualify for a full year of service time.

It's why he hasn't stuck, not why he was held down in 2020. There was a post where an analyis of debuts was done in May of 2019 for that season. 41 debuts before the cutoff - 4 top 100 prospects (presumably on opening day roster as debut was opening week) After opening week, zero top 100 prospects brought up before the service time cutoff. After the service time cutoff and the time of the post in May of 2019 there were another 45 debuts including 10 top 100 prospects. Service time manipulation is common.

I think it's more common than you think Brutal example of service time manipulation by the Dodgers with Matt Beatty. Sent down in 2021 for just enough time to miss arbitration by one day. Giants engaged in service time manipulation with Joey Bart

Most employers aren't a part of a collective where it's so clearly a zero sum game. For the Orioles to win another team has to lose. Issues like service time manipulation need to be addressed at the league level and the new CBA is a start in the right direction. I'd like to see them go further. But I'm kind of a radical - I'd like them to eliminate arbitration and make players FAs much sooner - greatly increase the number of FAs etc... What I don't want is the Oriole to engage in unilateral disarmament and put themselves at a competetive disdvantage by not taking advantage of opportunities they have to increase their odds of winning.

Do you honestly think he'll still be an Orioles regular in 2025? The amount of time he would have needed to be kept down in 2020 was 7 days. My recollection was he was down a lot longer than that making it seem like more than service time.

I doubt a 7th year was/is much of a concern. Maybe my memory is faulty but I think his time was delayed more by the fruitless attempt to get something out of Chris Davis. I'd be surprised if Elias thought it anything other than a failure if he hasn't found a better option once Mountcastle hits arbitration elgibility let alone gets close to a 7th year.

There will be no chance of sustained success from the Orioles if their general manager starts making decisions to double down on extremly low probability positive outcomes today at the expense of higher probability positive outcomes in the future.

Exactly - let's put ourselves in a worse position to try to accomplish X goal isn't exactly a sound strategy.

I don't think it's difficult to make a case for Gunnar over Witt. Gunnar is more than a full year younger. In their age 21 MiLB seasons Witt: .290 / .361 / .576 / .936 Gunnar (so far): .304 / .429 / .556 / .985 I prefer the significantly better plate discipline even if it comes with a bit less power.

Not at all, it’s not the only rational decision. if a team is in a playoff hunt and the prospect is ready and could help then the potential outcome of making the playoffs exceeds the outcome of the extra year so bring him up. Without the changes to the CBA what was the best case outcome for the O’s if they brought Adley up in 2021 and the odds of hitting the best case outcome? Is that better than an extra year of control? Seems to me an analogy for the Os and Adley would be sitting w/19 at a blackjack table. Rational decision for is to stay even though they could hit and the next card could be a 2. For a team in a diff position it could be they are sitting with a hand where the rational decision is to hit or double down.

Rational decision making is not a requirment in any aspect of MLB operations.

Was that a year a team had a second first round pick after not signing some one? If so, don't think it changes the point that draft pool size made signing Gunnar as well a possibility.

Of course, most players aren't good enough prospects for that to matter. And of course not a requirement any more than it's a not a requirement for teams to act rationally in other areas like FA. If it wasn't an issue - that the incentives made playing the service time game the smart approach - a new system would not have been needed in the CBA to change that incentive structure.

Seems like that's a recipe for Chris Davis type scenarios.

Of course, but if you are making decisions based on odds of outcomes the rational decision before the new CBA was to play the service time game. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed to work out. I'd be nervous about a GM whose decision making was based on rolling the dice and hoping to hit on something that has a 10% or 20% outcome at the expense of a decision with an 80% outcome.

Ideally no, but the rule changes were made because the logic of making decisions to maximize control for a player of his caliber made it the rational choice. The new rules change that calculus. I would have loved to have seen Adley up last year but I cannot blame Elias for being rational in his decision making.

Yep, but the rule didn't exist then so that wasn't part of the equation.

It makes less sense for Hall, Westburg and Stowers. But for someone like Gunnar and if he wasn't hurt maybe Grayson as well the calculus is completely different. Unless of course they think they are overrated and not nearly as good as the rest of the industry thinks they are vs the other potential rookies. Instead of earning a pick the odds are what I think is going to happen with Adley - no pick *and* no extra year of control. I look at the Mariners and see a legitimate shot that they don't just get the one pick for RoY but that JRod has a legitimate shot to earn them another pick in 2023 and then another in 2024 if he continues to improve. Adley could have been in the same place had he not gotten hurt.

There was some concern about signability or at least that was what was reported at the time of the draft. Took a decent amount over slot to sign him. Thankfully having the largest draft pool and Adley not requiring full slot made it doable for the O’s.