geschinger

Yep, much more difficult to grade. It'll be interesting to see how things play out. WIth the failure rate of first round picks I lean towards the volume of talent over putting all the eggs in one basket if there isn't a clear cut best player. It will be interesting to see in 5 years which approach created more value for the respective teams.

I don't think he was. As draft day approached not even sure he was considered higher than Mayer was. I think this is right. Some of the other factors you had in your post probably play into things more than we know. For instance, I was kind of surprised learning how much time Elias personally scouted (more than 30 times) Gunnar Henderson when Elias was with the Astros. Seems like there is a lot to be learned about makeup / work ethic if the team has someone spending that much time on these top guys.

Not seeing much of a difference. When the Orioles loved the guy they had available at their pick (Adley) they don't go with the underslot (trade down) option. When they don't see much of a distinction between a cluster of players at their draft position they take a trade of a Kjerstad + the additional draft capital for a Mayo/Baulmer over a BPA pick of a Martin or Lacy. The difference in how the systems are setup is that in MLB underslot/overslot you know up front who the BPA is that accepts an underslot deal whereas in the trade down scenario you hope that when your next pick comes that someone from the cluster of players you like remains on the board.

That isn't true, the Ravens often do not take the BPA. They often trade down which is defacto not taking the BPA.

What I think you get wrong is framing it as money over talent. I look at what Pittsburgh did last year and they added more talent to their org by drafting Davis and using the savings to get Bubba Chandler (consensus top 20 talent) It's a tough argument to make that the combo of Davis/Chandler did not infuse a lot more talent into their organization than if they paid slot for Mayer or Leiter. MLB doesn't have draft day trades. The underslot / overslot is somewhat analagous to a team trading down in the MLB draft. You mention the Ravens as BPA but they don't always do that - they trade down a lot. Why is that seen as a shrewd way to add more talent to the org but an MLB team doing similar framed as money over talent?

Who knows how these guys are ultimately graded but everything I've read leans towards his hit tool being the best and in the Callis article he references there are some scouts who have put an 80 grade on his hit tool.

He would be eligible to earn the team a draft pick if he's kept under 60 days of service time. There are also requirements to be in the top 100 prospects on some of the qualifying lists. They aren't contending this year so hopefully they'll be prioritizing what gives them the best opportunity to keep a talent pipeline flowing. It would be nice going into 2023 with a couple of players who could potentially bring in extra picks (and the associated slot money) to maximize the odds of adding talent to the org.

While I can't recall any of the stories of him personally scouting Appel like he did with Correa I have to assume he was heavily involved if not the driving force for that pick as well. When I look at the Astros picks during his time there I can't blame him for only looking at bats at the top of the draft.

I've heard Elias described as being the driving force behind Correa being picked #1.

I see a preference for collge bats but he'll pick his shots for over slot HS talent. I think the position player bias is much stronger than HS/College which I think is related to learnings from Houston. During the years he was there I think every first round pick position player has made the majors and either been a contributor or a vaulable trade chip while every pitcher has been a failed pick although finally 9 years later Appel - their 2013 MLB pick got called up by the Phillies. The willingness to go way over slot for HS players each year tells me he's willing to take some risks but if there is no one special enough to justify over slot it's stick to college players.

I think he will be but we might not see it for another year or maybe even two. My impression is Elias is going to be extremly patient to make sure he knows what he has. If you look at where the Orioles are in their rebuild they are a year behind (understandable after lost year of development in 2020) but otherwise look to be on the same trajectory and running the same playbook that Houston ran when Elias was part of that org. 3 100+ loss years of tanking to expedite building the farm. Development of young players leading to an improvement of +!5 games a year over the next two. Then as a .500 team with a strong foundation they started being more agressive making moves (including being willing to trade prospects) to fill in what they needed to go from .500 team to contention. What I've seen so far in 2022 gives me some confidence the franchise could get the hoped for +30 wins over the two years after the 3rd 100 loss season to stay on schedule.

Unfortunately I think there is little chance of that happening considering not even the Yankees YES network has been able to get on and stay on streaming services. They were for a while but with the content costs rising so much RSNs seem to be the casualty. I think MASN like YES is only available on DirecTVs streaming service. I wish they were available, but I can't blame the streaming services from saying no. The model of collecting a forced commission on every subscriber regardless of whether ot not they care about or watch sports has to end.

Ah, yep. Could be more potentially decent C like that who graduated from prospect status while not yet establishing themselves yet. He could definitely become a standout catcher - looks pretty good so far this year.

Interesting collection, of the top 5 two 1/1 draft picks and the rest Venezuelan internatioonal signings. Maybe it's different with this group, but in general it does seem like there is a bit of catcher inflation on the top prospect lists. I'm might be missing someone but off the top of my head Will Smith is the only standout C I can think of that isn't on the wrong side of 30.

I don't think so because of the positonal scarcity others have mentioned. I look at the 2019 draft and I see quite a few SS that a few years in have shown a legitimate shot to give you 80% (or more) of the yearly WAR that Witt does (assuming he lives up to the hype). I think the Orioles got one of them in Gunnar. Other than Shea Langeliers not sure there are any other catchers who can do the same vs Adley.

That would come close to what the baseline for what I consider a successful season. At this point of the rebuild I'd like to see +15 wins from last year and then another +15 in 2023. If they reach that threshold by the end of 2023 I will consider the rebuild to have been successful and the goal shifts to be a consistent contender.

Unless doctors think he could do more damage - If he's feeling discomfort after a few days of throwing that is no reason shut him down and forgo DHing and getting ABs.

I agree with those who say he could be doing the ramp up at the MLB level. I don't think we have enough info to conclude he's fully healthy and it's on the org for him not catching 3 days in a row. i.e. is he not catching three in a row to this point because the team is being uber conservative or is not catching three days in a row because he's feeling soreness or discomfort after catching two games in a row? Some of the throws I've seen on the few milb.com games I have seen makes me think it may not be the org slow rolling things that is preventing catching 3 days in a row.

Not sure hilarious is the word I'd use for a triceps injuiry costing the Orioles a valuable compensatory draft pick

Way underslot instead of Haskin and Serviedo may have gotten somewhat close to Mayo but not both Mayo and Baulmer. But then you also have to take into account the risk factor - if you try to screw the guy you pick instead of Haskin or Servideo by too much and they don't sign, you lose that slot value entirely. You can't reallocate that elsewhere.

It's worth if if you have him rated significantly better than Cowser. The 2020 draft is an easy one to illustrate the choices with so few picks. Assuming it would have cost at least slot to sign Veen which seems likely - there wouldn't have been enough overslot to sign Baulmer and Mayo. Sure they could have passed on Westburg and Haskin trying to find someone way under slot to have the money to take a shot on Baulmer or Mayo. Obviously if I knew Hestan was going to have the health issue in retrospect Veen would have been preferable but knowing what we knew then I'd be happy if they did it again spreading around the draft pool the way they did.

The cost of Lawalr wasn't just slightly overslot with your first pick. His price was signficantly overslot.

It's not about the money, that presumably is (hopefully) being spent either way and I think it was in 2021. What has a better chance of working out better for the organization. Colton Cowser, John Rhodes and Creed Willems or Jordan Lawlar and whoever they could have picked instead of Rhodes and Wllems for at or under slot.

It will be interesting to see what they do this year if we do end up as expected with a consensus BPA. I can believe Lawlar was higher rated but by how much? The gap in signing bonuses was huge - almost $2m more for Lawlar. I think Lawlar would have had to have been much higher rated than Cowser on their board to be the better pick considering it would have come at the expense of the draft pool resources necessary to have taken a shot on Rhodes and Willems later on.

Has anyone whose had a chance to watch Cowser play last year and this year noticed any differences in the swing that would indicate if that is likely or a possibility?