geschinger

A complete tear down and losing games to optimize getting the fanchise getting to the point where they can build a sustained winner doesn't bother me. I believe that was absolutely the right approach. I can't get into ownerships head to know *why* they took the optimal approach to rebuilding the franchise and even if the motives were inpure the bottom line for me is that they they took the right approach and did it successfully - we wouldn't have anywhere near as strong of a farm system if we instead had tried to maximize wins the past couple of years. Winning is what I care about. I feel pretty good where they are having a top farm system going into 2022 transitioning to trying to translate that into wins at the MLB level.

I don't think they are sucking on purpose in 2022. I see it as an interesting year to see what they have as I think a lot of young players are going to get a ton of playing time this year. As for the reasons, who cares? If the intention was pure - the goal was truly to rebuild a franchise as quickly as possible or if it was all just a disguise to rake in profits - the end result is the same, they took the optimal approach to rebuilding their farm system and have been successful. Now they are in the transition phase hoping to develop the talent and then there will be an inflection point next year - after seeing what they have do they spend to fill needs? If Orioles ownership wants that long term the answer will be yes. I think they will as well as it would be illogical not to if they want to maximize the value of their asset and rake in profits.

That's an assumption with no evidence to back it up. You could be potentially be right. But what we know for sure as of now is that early phases of the plan have been relatively successful. Significant improvements in the international presence, analytics and the farm system. Why would ownership want to successfully implement a plan that builds a sustained winner? How about signifcantly increasing the value of the franchise while at the same time also raking in signfiicant profits. Those are the benefits Jim Crane has received as a result of a successful implementation of the type of plan the Orioles are trying. Why wouldn't Orioles ownership want similar?

The client may not always be being presented all the info. He’s had trouble over the years with guys like Beltran, Cano Werth, etc. where they find out he wasn’t necessarily acting in their best interests.

He advises his client and is presumably somewhat persuasive considering his track record. His incentives were out of alignment with his client. Surely we all noticed how there weren’t the same kind of mystery team rumors and other staples of the Boras approach.

Interesting, Boras taking that a (most likely) one year deal makes even more sense now.

Wouldn't it have been a no brainer? He'll have a legitimate shot of placing in the RoY top 2 and get a full year of service anyway. And if he was on the opening day roster you get an extra draft pick and all the extra bonus pool money that comes along with a top 3 RoY finish.

It is a alternative and also a legit approach. I think Detroit is taking an approach similar to this albeit with bats and arms - but similar in scope.

I'm not too surprised. I think their attendance was around 800k. $20m would be roughly $25 per attendee which sounds about right.

Yes, if their both free agents at the same age - no way they choose Olson over Freeman. I don't remember who the best FA 3B was when Bergman was extended. Rendon maybe? If so that's another one where the history with the team would trump replacing him even if the replacement's future value is slightly higher.

I would have preferred to have seen more starts by the younger guys in 2021. I'm just not sure if that was a failure of approach or more attributable to workload restrictions they rightly or wrongly follow. Lowther as one example was going from 148 innings ('19) to 0 innings ('20) and he only threw 38 innings in the minor leagues in '21. 30 of those were in 8 starts in AAA which seems more like trying to build his capacity rather than starts that could have been in MLB instead. If there is a 2020 MiLB season 2021 would have been a likely year to get someone like Bradish 100+ innings of MLB experience, etc... The carry over effect from Covid has put the Orioles a bit of a disdvantage in amassing enough innings from the young guys to let them take their lumps and see who can emerge.

Primarily yes, but assume for a moment that they legitimately think Matt Olson was a better player but instead of Freeman being on the wrong side of 30 looking for a contract that took him well into the wrong side of 35 they were both 28. I don't think there is any chance they choose Olson.

I agree that the jury is still out. I know it's frustrating seeing those guys but remember it took a guy like Keuchel who was some where in the teens of their top prospect list - not exactly a Grayson caliber prospect - 150 innings to start to show signs that he could make it. I'm obiously not expecting any of them to turn into anything close to what he became but I think it would be a mistake to throw in the towel on any of them without giving them an extended shot.

I don't know if he can replicate it but from day one when he was announced it's been clear he's going to try to do for Baltimore what he was part of in Houston. The organizational portion seems to have been replicated successfully. When it comes to international presence, minor league system, analytics - I think it's fair to say progress has been substantial and other than losing a year to Covid nothing has really deviated from the vision. The next step should be improvement in the MLB team from seeing what they have. If players don't develop and the team isn't better in 2022 that would be the first sign that maybe he can't replicate it. He's been up front about wanting to have signed another starter. We'll see if anything is done between now and opening day. One of those one year guys - Pineda, Smyly, etc... - not sure if he tried and if not why not - they would fit with both the strategy and what he wants to do. As for a guy like ERod, like i said previously I personally would have been for it, it's not a huge risk even if it doesn't completely optimize playoff probabilities. But I also know to see what we have we need to be willing to let guys struggle and figure it out. Which of the young guys the Orioles have to throw out there will develop over 150 innings of getting the crap beat out of them and go on to be worthy of a spot on a contending staff?

If that player is also in their mid 20s and productive it absolutely does.

I can commit that I'll be right there with you bashing the Orioles if they refuse to extend a productive mid 20s player who helped them win a World Series 2 years before.

Who did the Astros extend? Only one I can think of was Altuve when he was already eligible for arbitration.

Seeing what you have before making long commitments is not an unreasonable approach. The Astros went into 2014 to see what they and made no long term commitments. They wanted to see what they had before making commitments to free-agent reinforcements In 2015 the Astros added approximately $35m to their 2015 payroll via free agent signings. The added another approximately $32m to that payroll through trades. Do you think that approach that worked so well was stupid and based on dumbass reasoning?

They could have, it's probably the only contract I've seen so far (other than a mythical long term Correa deal) that could have made sense. But it's not an obvious call. Elias has said that the club’s potential investment in free-agent reinforcements will align with that prolonged period of “maximizing playoff odds.” As most FA value is in the early years of the contract are the Orioles playoff odds maximized with ER in years 3/4/5 and early 30s or signing the equivalent in 2024 and getting years in the late 20s. Obviously the latter offer better odds.

2022 is not about losing on purpose. It is a season like the 2014 Astros. If the Orioles win 15 more games than they did in 2021 givng as many innings and ABs as possible to young players to see what they have is success. It will mean the pipeline is starting to pay off w/MLB caliber talent. If they have another year like 2021 it's a failure.

The Orioles brought in a braintrust from an organization that was rebuilt from the ground up and won a WS to implement a similar strategy in Baltimore. I know you've said several times it's a stupid strategy but I'm not clear how you are arrive at that conclusion considering how wildly successful it has been so recently. Maybe it really is a dumb strategy, maybe it's analagous to the triangle offense in the NBA and only works with the specific conditions Phil Jackson had in Chicago and is destined to fail elsewhere. I hope not and up until this point I see no evidence the strategy will fail in Baltimore.

The Astros farm system similarly as good going into 2014 as the Orioles is today. Sure their potentially may be better approaches but I don't think stupid is the right description for one that worked so well for Houston. As I know you know - there was no minor league season in 2020. Had it been a normal year they lose 100+ in 2020 and everyone at the MiL level is level higher. The 2021 MLB team is better with players like Adley etc.

Astros had 3 100+ loss season, had the lowest paryoll in baseball going into the season the season after. Orioles are coming off their 3rd 100+ loss season and have the lowest payroll in baseball going into the season after. Seems comparable to me.

I'd be more irked if there wasn't a strategy or the organization was behaving like Colorodo with no discernable direction or plan to contend. I do think the Orioles should have signed at least one more starter. I would have liked an ERod signing but not surprised they aren't giving out longer contracts at this stage. For better or worse they are taking the Astros approach. At a similar time in their rebuild they also had the leagues lowest payroll. It makes it hard to get too irked about something I was already conditioned to expect.

I thinnk we can all agree going to a short term deal only happens *after* Boras determines he can't get an acceptable long term deal with. The goal is to get Correa back on the market as soon as possible to cash in on the $300+m deals that Boras wants. Once you get to that point - the Twins are an obvious choice - they are close. This is a division winner in 2019 and 2020 that had everything go wrong in 2021. They are a team that has enough talent to have a legitimate shot of getting to the postseason with Correa. I saw in the article they were willing to increase payroll to but not be stupid - i.e. willing to spend on 4 years for Story but bowing out when he was getting offers longer than that. These are the kind of moves / offers I think an unrestrained Elias should consider 2023 or 2024 if the young talent has developed and their getting production like the Twins are getting out of their young players. But a one year (most likely) or up to three years commitment in 2022 - I'm not seeing how the Orioles would be attractive enough to Boras/Correa to warrant a call.