Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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43 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:
I rank "playoff experience" right up there with "veteranisity" and "chemistry." I suppose there's some usefulness to them but they seem very overrated and impossible to quantify. The rules in the post season are still the same. You still win by scoring more runs than the other team. Playoff games are just high leverage games and by the time these guys make it that far they've played in plenty of high leverage games from college to the minors to a 162 game season to get to the playoffs. I'm sure there's more excitement and pressure, but that comes with the territory. I just don't understand what wisdom the players with playoff experience are imparting to the newbies. "Stay loose?" "Play the game one out at a time." "Shake it off? (after a botched play). "Keep your head in the game?"
I realize this may come off as snarky but that's not my intent. I acknowledge that there's a value to experience. I just sometimes think these terms get overused and their importance inflated because they really are so hard to quantify and actually measure.
Ok. No offense taken. GM’s, managers and veteran players, who have won playoff series and World Series games talk about it and say it exists. Anyone who has performed at a very high level, in any profession, can tell you that having been there before helps on some level, more so for some than others. Keith Law and other journalists have written that playoff experience does not matter. To each their own, I guess.
No one can prove it either way. I get the argument that you cannot quantify it easily. Elias and Hyde speak about the chemistry and the veterans they added this off-season and credit them with keeping the team from getting too high or low. It exists to them, and they constructed this team. On talent alone, the Padres and Mets should be very good major league teams, and yet they are terrible team loaded with big talent. Chemistry often matters.
My point, in my head anyway, about a Verlander or Scherzer did not rest on solely their playoff experience. Their total body of work, their presence, their overall experience, along with playoff/big game experience was what I had in mind. I neglected to write that, though. And, Scherzer is a Ranger now. lol
I stand by my comments regarding the playoffs and tournament play being vastly different than a 162 game season. I don’t think anyone can say that important college games or any other game at any lower level is the same as an MLB playoff or World Series game.
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41 minutes ago, justD said:
Weams vehemently rooted against the Pirates because of the "We Are Family" dudes takin' it to the Orioles in '79. He never got over that.
Me either. Never will.
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I don’t think it changes their need, honestly. I mean, if a Verlander or Scherzer type starter came into the clubhouse, that would dramatically change many things. The fans’ and players’ perceptions for one thing. The playoff experience alone is a huge component they’re currently missing. Would we be ok with who we have? Sure, but I don’t like our chances of getting to the World Series. If they picked up Verlander or Scherzer, would they be better? Yep, very much so. I think Bradish and Grayson, in particular, would benefit.
Playoff baseball is tournament ball. It’s a different animal than the regular season. It’s at the end of the long season, when everyone is running on fumes and letting it rip the best they can. The pressure of every pitch is enormous. The heart beats a bit faster. There is no substitute for playoff experience and the confidence that comes from having been there.
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3 minutes ago, Number5 said:
There was once an NFL trade where a team (I think maybe the Redskins) traded a draft pick that they had already traded in another deal. Trade was either reworked or voided Don't remember exactly There was also a MLB trade where a guy was traded for a player to be named later -- that turned out to be himself!
The MLB trade was the Orioles acquiring Tito Landrum from STL for PTBNL in 1983. Landrum was a bit of a hero in the postseason, and he was sent back in the offseason.
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As far as grading a draft that just concluded, of course it will not be accurate over time. This is just a fun exercise to give us something to talk about. An early assessment like this has a different grading process than you would use years later. It’s about perception at this point.
It takes 3-5 years to really get a clearer picture, depending on how many high school picks. No posters should have their feet held to the fire about an impression of draft performance in July of the same year. If you don’t want to give a grade, fine. If everyone does that, it will get a little boring around here.
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56 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:
I think Urias has hit enough to be penciled in as the everyday third baseman with Ortiz and Frazier as the backups, getting occasional starts over Urias and Westburg against righties, and Ortiz coming in as a defensive upgrade late in games when not starting. Keep O'Hearn and Mountcastle as a pure L/R platoon.
I think many here would agree. I am on the fence.
.251/.319/.383/.702 (WRC+ is 96) is Urias’ current line. I think part of it is that he has not played everyday. I have not liked many of his at bats recently where he almost seemed distracted. I think he is a better hitter than he has shown in 2023, but his production in 2022 was fairly solid (WRC+ was 104). Some might say that his 2022 production was mediocre for a 3B, even for an outstanding defender.
What is the end goal for 2023? Is it truly to win as many games as possible? Or is it to win as many games as possible, while incorporating our young talent into everyday reps on the field? I think ultimately it’s the latter and Urias and Frazier fit into a UT profile with solid bats off the bench on a playoff team.
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Assuming Holliday is a June or July 2024 arrival, what infield alignment would you be most in favor of going forward the rest of the year?
I am hopeful that Mateo is moved soon, and that Ortiz moves up to stay. Does Urias hit enough to be the everyday 3B?
1B - O’Hearn/Mountcastle
2B - Ortiz/Frazier
SS - Henderson
3B - Westburg
UT - Urias
They could put Westburg in a 2B platoon, with Ortiz the everyday SS, and Henderson everyday at 3B. I’d be fine with that. I am not a big fan of moving these young guys around constantly, but they seem intent on doing that. I got an in-person look at Westburg and watched a lengthy infield practice on Sunday. I think he’s better at 2B than he showed earlier. He is fairly athletic as I thought initially. He’s no gold glove candidate, but he can make the plays he should make there and be considered average.
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I went to the Tampa games on Saturday and Sunday. We arrived about 90 minutes before game time and watched the Orioles take infield. They do not take BP on Sundays. It was interesting to watch how different players prepared. Gunnar, Westburg and O’Hearn were out there the longest, and then Urias. Frazier came out a little later in a black/orange soccer jersey. Even Hyde’s son took about 20 reps, and he looked damn good at SS for 15 yoa.
What struck me about this was I never saw Mateo. Maybe there was some reason, and it is only one instance, but it was odd.
To me, Mateo is a guy that seems to play better when he is “The SS.” His confidence soared when he was the man. He definitely is not the man anymore, and it seems he is pouting and/or has lost his confidence. His ego can’t seem to handle the truth.
When Gunnar’s health concerns are through, perhaps Ortiz comes up and Mateo is out, DFA and/or traded. It seems a tough time to have three rookies struggling to make initial adjustments at the same time. To carry Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz and McKenna in the same lineup would be ugly. I realize Ortiz can play a UT role, but is that what is best for his development? IDK, maybe it is, and maybe it is best for the big club. When your team is the AL East leader, it’s tough to commit to that many rookies, besides Gunnar.
I think Mateo should go ASAP. I was very much in favor of giving him every opportunity to be the everyday SS. I thought his changes at the plate were sustainable, as his process had changed in meaningful ways. Suddenly, he reverted back the garbage he came with. If he is that stubborn, and refuses to make adjustments, send him packing.
Lets be clear, we have not seen many players in Baltimore, or anywhere else, with the pure talent Mateo has. If only the aptitude matched…
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I gave them an A because they were aggressive. Their draft was about tools and specific traits. I like that they went after those things relentlessly. They bet on their player development program. They brought in players they believe they can help mold and shape into major league talent. High upside guys, with some solid floors as well.
There is no denying their development ability with position players. This draft brought in several legitimate arm talents that we should be able to fairly judge how effective their pitching development is in a few years.
Bradfield would have been drafted much higher in most years, but this draft was loaded. Horvath and Baumeister are unpolished, but have a ton of upside. The same can be said about Lord, Josenberger, Wells, Cunningham, Cravey and Etzel. Sharkey is a fairly exciting personality as a relief prospect with electric stuff. Fruit is reputed to have similar stuff. Forret is a young kid (19) with great potential.
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2 hours ago, Number5 said:
Tim Stoddard acted as a nasty relief pitcher in "Rookie of the Year."
Great memory. I thought Stoddard was a guy who would have been a Goose Gossage type reliever, but nope.
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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:
How dare you disrespect Don Aase and Tom Niedenfuer!!!
Did you ever notice that you could have slipped those guys into an episode of Dukes of Hazzard as the bad guys and they'd have fit right in?
I, not surprisingly, had forgotten all about those guys. Aase had one solid season in 1986 with 34 saves.
I guess Aase and Niedenfuer couldn’t get into the actor’s guild, so they figured they’d become MLB journeyman relievers. Both were big dudes.
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All of the tremendous talent that Bradfield has aside, he is an impressive young man. He is of strong character, a family guy, well-spoken, humble…yet confident, hungry, and an actual fan and student of the game. He has a lot to learn, and he knows that. I really like this young man, and the energy he brings.
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31 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
I still have no idea how Full Pack didn't just burst into flames. In 1979 he had 21 saves and a 2.85 ERA, but walked 51 with just 34 strikeouts in 72 innings. If social media existed in '79 worldwide servers would have melted every time he came in with less than a 5-run lead.
Absolutely awful, but Earl leaned on him. Otter was the first reliever in my time as an Oriole fan that I remember thinking, “Hey, we have a closer.” I saw a few other teams had them over the years and I wanted a Tekulve, Fingers, Suter, etc…
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Bautista is great and all, but he’s no Don Stanhouse. lol
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1 minute ago, Baltimorecuse said:
Can you imagine having that guy throwing baseballs at you at 100mph? You don't see a lot folks digging in.
No way. He’s not the most graceful, and his delivery is so violent. I don’t think anyone trusts him to be accurate. Such an intimidating presence. To hit him, I think you just have to guess right and get very lucky with the FB. He gets hit mostly on the split when he hangs it.
Fujinami throws just as hard, but his presence isn’t nearly as intimidating. McClanahan and a few others threw high 90’s yesterday too. McClanahan’s arm is so quick. His FB just jumps at the hitter.
Along the same lines, the ball that McCann bunted was scary. Right at his face.
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8 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:
The Mountain looks like he's hugging a little kid.
I had not seen him in person yet, and when he hugged McCann, it really showed. He is a very large human.
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8 hours ago, Number5 said:
That's McCann.
Yep, I made a mistake. A few scotches in last night.
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13 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:
The O's fans were in the house.
Yes we were! We rocked it tonight. The fam and I sat right behind the dugout on the plate side. There was thousands of Oriole fans. And we were loud as Hell. Definitely worth the drive over from Orlando, even though I-4 absolutely blows.
I have to say, that was the best game I have ever attended away from Camden Yards. A great game. We were not going to stay for Sunday’s game, but changed our minds and bought tickets behind the dugout again. LFG!
I love seeing Rutschman (edit: McCann) hugging The Mountain.
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Great OP! I am not really shocked about any of the bullet points in the OP. I did not expect Cano and Coulombe to be as good as they have been, no. I did expect Hall to be a reliever on the big club by now. Grayson is about what I figured. Overall, not shocked by anything.
I expected the Orioles to be a clear WC contender. I thought the Blue Jays were the best team in the AL East, and I had the Rays second. I had the Yanks declining rapidly because of their roster full of veteran players who are frequently injured. The Yanks stayed healthy in 2022, and that is why they did so well. To me, that was an aberration.
Tons of close games is hard on the bullpen, and on the manager. Our guys do not roll over often. They have had a few clunkers, but mostly this team will scratch and claw and find a way to get back into games. The execution of the little things such as hitting a ground ball to the right side or a sac fly. Good sound defense overall.
Some things of concern for me:
1. The pen is a huge part of this team, and the appearances are racking up quickly. Bautista, Cano, Coulombe, Baker and Baumann are on pace for about 80 appearances. We have seen Cano fall off somewhat, but that was to be expected. The health/durability of the pen is a serious concern for me.
2. Kremer, Bradish and Wells are on pace to throw significantly more innings than they have ever thrown in a season. I am not too concerned with Kremer and Bradish, but Wells and his history of shoulder problems is an issue.
3. Just how long is Mullins out? We miss the bat and speed on the bases, sure. But the defense in CF is a legitimate concern. Especially with all of the close games we play in. Personally, I would be tempted to option Mountcastle and play McKenna in CF 4-5 days a week. Santander can play more 1B, and Hicks and Cowser can still play 4-5 games a week, but mostly away from CF.
4. I would look to decrease Adley’s load a bit. He looks very tired. We need more from McCann’s bat and more frequent at bats would help him.
5. I would look to keep Gunnar at SS for the rest of the season. Let him focus on only one position. Getting into a rhythm and being able to focus on one position is a very good thing for a young star like Gunnar, IMO.
6. Ideally, we need a TOR starter, another back end BP piece and we could use a legitimate RH vet bat. It would be awesome, but probably not realistic, to hope for Scherzer, Goldschmidt and Hader. The O’s won’t make all of these moves. Likely not even one of them. However, if you really wanted to go for it, add Scherzer and Goldy, and watch the team and fans go crazy.
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1 hour ago, AdleysPecks said:
I think my point is that Logan isn’t 4a fodder, we drafted him and he was in our top prospects last offseason.
Nope, we did not draft him, signed as a minor league FA. Never any kind of top prospect.
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1 minute ago, johnrambo said:
When we're in the ALCS and down by a run and a man on 3rd base less than 2 outs do you want Frazier at the plate or not? You bet your ass you want him at the plate.
I don’t totally disagree, in comparison to some of the other young infielders we have. He does give a pro at bat. But we have to actually get to the ALCS first. The cost of his inability to make plays at 2B may well cost us a chance to even get there at this point. It hurts the pitchers, extends innings, and costs us wins.
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It’s hard to argue for Frazier to stick around at this point. The defensive issues are not outweighed by his professional at bats, approach or clutch performance. I will say that it’s mid season and all of these guys are banged up to an extent. They all have ups and downs, but Frazier’s energy level out there is poor. There is not enough positive things to outweigh his deficiencies. And it has been that way for months.
Is Westburg really much better? For me, I’m not sure. Westburg looks solid on one play, and then about as unathletic as he could be on the next. He looks awkward, and then fairly smooth. It’s as odd a performance of a supposed middle infielder as I can remember. The arm will look average to slightly above on one play, and then like a limp noodle on the next. The footwork is lacking for sure at 2B. He seems to lack explosive movement traits. I thought he was a better athlete than he is. Maybe things will smooth out a little more as he gets acclimated, but I think he has to get stronger and focus more on getting more explosive. I do not like him at 2B.
Gunnar is a star in the making. There is going to be some bumps in the road. He is a little inconsistent for now, but moving him back and forth between 3B and SS is not a good idea IMO. Just put him at whichever position and leave him there. I think 3B, ideally.
Mateo’s time is coming to an end here, I think. I still think he can play everyday and hit, but he has to make the obvious changes needed. He is not going to play everyday here, not for a playoff bound team. If he stays, it’s a bench role, super UT.
Urias is better at 3B than 2B. He does not turn the DP well, and my eyes say his range isn’t much better than Frazier. The arm is better though.
Joey Ortiz would be a welcome addition for me. If you are going to play Westburg nearly everyday, and live with the growing pains, you may as well commit to Ortiz having a prominent role as well. Playing the young guys will have more mistakes, poorer at bats and such, but if it is the direction you want to take long term, do it and deal with it.
I believe there is a fracture in the team revolving around the infield. I can see it in how they play together. Whether it’s Mountcastle vs. O’Hearn, or Mateo and Urias vs. Frazier and Westburg. Maybe I am just imagining things, but it seems pretty clear to me. These guys are human, and when Mateo and Urias played like they did last year and lose their everyday spots…it’s tough. They know there are prospects the organization would rather give their spots to. That’s MLB. I think they need to make some changes, and the deadline cannot get here soon enough.
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This will not be a popular post, but Adley was lazy tonight behind the plate. Backhanding breaking balls in the dirt, well that isn’t like him. His swings at two pitches he normally would clearly have taken, especially the 3-0 count. I am increasingly unimpressed with his defense and game calling.
Hicks certainly should have had that catch near the wall.
Baker throwing four fastballs in the same spot with an 0-2 count…grand slam. This was a winnable game, and that was an awful sequence. You have to change speeds and eye level there. Terrible!
Urias’ at bats were terrible. He looked disinterested in the box tonight. His double was blooper that Outman played into a double. His body language tonight makes me wonder if he heard his name in trade rumors or something.
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4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:
We are perfectionists lol
If you can’t read it perfectly on 3-0 you have no business swinging.
Exactly! Why swing 3-0 when Sheehan is struggling to throw a strike there? That, and the swing in the first at bat on a ball well inside off the plate. Adley is not himself tonight.
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Does Grey Rod looking like an ace and the potential of Means coming back diminish the pressure for another starter?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I already read it, and spoke of his opinion in my last reply. It doesn’t prove anything, either way. It says that playoff experience had a slight edge. The answer is probably more complicated, and organic in nature. Intrinsic to each situation. We’re not going to change the opinion of the other. You said yourself that experience does matter.
In the pursuit of a World Series tiitle, you want every advantage you can get. After watching Wells fold and get punked out by Judge and Stanton tonight, I think we’re a TOR starter short. Wells got intimidated by Judge, and you face the best in the playoffs. We need pitchers who have the confidence and courage to challenge the best. To pitch with conviction. I hope we add someone like that.