Jammer7

I think Odor is competition for Urias and Gutierrez at 2B/3B. A LH bat to compliment them. Maybe more if he somehow refined his approach significantly. Probably a role or bench guy. Hyde played Mateo at SS every chance he had over Urias, and I don’t think that changes in 2022. Urias should back him up, and Odor can play 2B on those days. As the roster stands, Mateo is probably the starter at SS. He needs everyday reps to see what he is going to be. Sporadic reps behind an all star infield in San Diego, and mostly in the OF, was not enough to see him.

Seems a long time ago. What this does is help to keep the arms in the pen healthier and potentially more effective. The fly ball rate and HR rate don’t seem to bode well at The Yards, but maybe there are things they have in mind to alter that with pitch selection. Ok, that’s about as positive as I can be with this one.

I agree. Who was the last starter we had that logged 180 innings in a season? Chris Tillman?

FYI, Urias was claimed on waivers from St. Louis. They had signed him from Mexico 2-3 years earlier, IIRC. He’s a LH bat on a predominantly RH team, albeit not a great OPS+. Although he hit LHP better than RHP I. 2021. From what I have seen, he is a solid to above average 2B/3B. He’ll be a role player for us initially, depending on match ups. Its not a glamorous move, but the offseason just started. Why all of the discontent? Trying to get your holiday ranting done early? lol I do agree with not taking at bats away from Urias, Mateo and Gutierrez. But I think he will actually be just fine filling in and giving them appropriate days off. He’s a solid veteran role player and only 27. There may be some things they can work with as far as swing decisions. Maybe they can convince him to alter his approach in some small ways. I don’t think this loves the needle much, probably. But I am not going to judge the efforts of the offseason on December 1.

What does this mean?

I’ve liked him since 2020. I particularly like the way he can hit line drives to RF at any time. He also makes a lot of solid contact. Those things along with his OBP, and solid chase rate, make him a great candidate for the #2 hole. If he learns to pull the ball more on certain pitches, his power numbers (SLG) will increase although the OBP may take a small dip. He certainly works with a RCF approach, and I hesitate to mess with it too much. Defensively, his hands are sometimes a bit stiff. Tony cited the stats, and they make sense. I thought the arm was average at SS, but the range and hands were below average there. But it wasn’t bad for occasional duty there. As far as Mateo, we do not know what to make of him yet. I think you make him compete for the job at SS, but hope he grabs it and runs with it. He is going to make some mistakes, but I hope he makes steady progress as a SS. It isn’t about his prospect status at all, but it is about the tools that earned that status for him. Bat him 9th and just let him be. See what you get out of it. He is definitely not capable at 3B. At 3B, I really liked what I saw in Gutierrez defensively. The bat showed some promise and he has tools to work with. It seemed like they brought his hands down a bit and his late power surge coincided with that. He is very athletic, a 60 runner, a 65 arm, very good hands in the field and at the plate. I really want to see if Ryan Fuller can help him make more hard contact and hit the ball in the air more. Like Mateo, make him earn it. If he does, leave him there. Bat him 7th or 8th. You just might have a late bloomer there. He’s a potential gold glove quality 3B in the AL. The only other option at 3B is…Nevin? I know he was said to have improved there, but yikes. Urias, Mateo and Gutierrez could just be solid place holders until Westburg, Henderson, Norby, Ortiz, etc… are ready. I would be fine with that outcome for 2022. I could see bringing in a SS like a Freddy Galvis, but I am tempted to give Mateo every chance to see if he can play an everyday SS.

I think it is more delicate a balance than you think it is. I think some young players can lose confidence quickly. If they have not accomplished anything yet, doubt can creep in when they struggle. There are things each player has to show at each level to move forward. The pressure to perform and move up is huge. They can press, try too hard, and things go awry. At some point, they can either compete or they cannot. But I think they have to reach a level of physical, mental and emotional maturity to find out what they are. College stars are different than a HS pick because of their experiences and accomplishments.

I agree, completely. Pretty clear why things began the way they did. Confidence is essential for any player. Starting them conservatively makes complete sense, especially after COVID. I think some thought the alternate sight was more valuable than it actually was, and initial placements of Henderson and Rutschman surprised some. There was no reason to push Rodriguez beyond AA in his 21 year old season after COVID. There is a balance between promotion for the purpose of challenging a prospect, skill development and physical development, including the build up of innings. Pitchers like Drew Rom, DL Hall, Jean Pinto, Carter Baumler, Raul Rangel and maybe even Brennan Hanifee should be interesting to follow this year to see their development and how they approach it. Young pitching with promise should be handled intelligently and individually.

Has Mike Elias really slow-rolled prospects? I thought last year was fairly aggressive for many prospects. Adley spent half a year in AA, and half in AAA. This was his first full professional season. Westburg, Stowers and Henderson played at three levels in 2021 in their first full pro seasons. I believe Diaz would have as well if he had not been injured. Many others played across two levels when they showed they were prepared for the move. DL Hall would have been in AAA if not injured. The list goes on. And if you are talking about the 2019 season, and pitchers like Akin, Lowther, Kremer, etc…were they really slow-rolled in retrospect? Looks to me like they still weren’t ready in 2021. I know there was a general thought on this board that Elias was too slow to promote players. But after 2021, and having some retrospective info, I think it is not a valid observation.

For me, I would like to see a legit MLB starter, maybe like an Alex Wood. It isn’t about winning more games for me, although that should happen a bit. It is about accounting for innings so the pen isn’t fried by June. It is about the young kids seeing an MLB starter, who has had legit success, go about his business. I want these young arms to have opportunities, absolutely, but they have to earn them. Having a second guy account for around 140-160 innings, for me, is exactly what we need for the guys in the pen like Tate and Scott to have a chance to develop. And if they trade Means for a package they just could not say “no” to? I would expect them to sign a lesser impact guy like Matt Harvey to a lesser deal. I am not thinking we should be all-in, not yet. But we should be fielding a more competitive team than the product in 2021. I agree with SG on that. This, for me, is about preparing to begin their ascent. Learning how to win takes a bit of time. When Adley, Grayson, Stowers and Westburg come up, they will inject some more hope and energy. But they still have to learn how to win at the MLB level. A few veteran guys will help with that. Maybe a catcher, a middle infielder and 1-2 starters, one of whom should be legitimate 3-4 type. That is what I would look to do.

That’s fine. I think our differing takes is the similar to how these players are seen in the industry. Scouts have differing opinions too. All it takes is for one scout to really like the guy and he can be taken. Richard Bleier throws with less velo than Vespi, just for one example. And Yaz is a platoon OF for San Francisco that they traded next to nothing for, just to name one everyone knows. Peralta has some good stuff, but the command is pretty rough. Sedlock might be a fifth starter/back end pen candidate for some team, and the change up looked like a good pitch for him. But he looked kinda ordinary for the most part to me. Some other team may see something and take them and turn them into useful assets. So be it.

It is hard to project, for sure. I could see any/all of them going, or none. Who really thought Fenter would have been picked last year? There are two, in particular, that I think might be selected. Vespi, despite his mediocre velo, seems like he might be gone. That slider looks pretty good. With the strange decline of Paul Fry, I am a little surprised he was left unprotected and Fry is still here. Neustrom, would not be a typical pick, but a LH power bat with AAA experience might be something a NL team grabs to help with their DH and part time corner OF. He made strides this year and I think there is more upside there. Might be a bit of a late bloomer. After reading Tony’s thoughts on him, which surprised me a bit, I am less concerned. For me, he looked like a tick below average as a defender, but I had limited looks at his video. If he is in the realm of DJ as a defender, he would be no big loss, if he is even picked. But that LH power still intrigues me. The Orioles are in a good spot when they may lose talent in the R5. Next season will be much tougher, though I would expect Elias to be trading some of the excess to maintain the value in the organization.

Pretty fair look. Neustrom is a better defender at this time, maybe a full grade better. And supposedly Fuller really helped Neustrom emerge this year. I think some team will take him and take a good long look at him. It is debatable whether or not we should bother. With all of the injuries our OF’s have had, and Stowers not being ready, why keep Stewart who is basically a poor DH at this point? I guess they may hope our co-hitting coaches will be able to coax Stewart into actually being on time and barreling average fastballs. IDK. I guess we’ll see what they do.

IDK, Tony. Perhaps you’re right. He is still a better value than Stewart. He is a better defender, maybe a tick below average corner OF, and has considerably more power and he is starting to get it. The only thing Stewart does better is walk. Neustrom is 3 years younger. I get the depth and the fade over the last month at AAA, but I don’t want to give away LH power bats like Neustrom. He could be the first to hit the warehouse on the fly. He improved dramatically in 2021 with Fuller in AA. We’ll see.

Agree. I have been beating a drum for months that I would keep Neustrom over Stewart. It isn’t even close for me. Ryan Fuller really helped Neustrom in AA and his AAA work was pretty solid as well. The one thing I do not like about Neustrom is his fairly low hand position at load. Dorrian had a really good year in AA. I believe he is 25, and his splits are not great. The defense is below average, but not terrible. He isn’t a real physical or athletic guy either. On the other hand, LH power has value. The Orioles are a very RH hitting team. I don’t think he has a shot at being added.

I do not think Nevin or Diaz is going anywhere at this time. Nevin, in particular, is well liked. Elias has talked about his untapped power and working on pulling the ball more, along with his versatility. He was actually lauded for his defensive improvement, particularly at 3B. Diaz, might be on his last shot. Martin, I think he is square on the bubble. If they want to keep Grenier, then I think Martin goes. Bannon, I believe he is square on the bubble. Hard worker, who may have gained too much muscle mass last year. An under-sized 5-07 3B who had a terrible year with the bat. He apparently had a very unlucky season and hit the ball hard frequently. Elias cited that some of the advanced metrics were telling on Bannon. But I just cannot see how Bannon, who is 26, can be of more value to the organization than a guy like Neustrom.

So, after this year they will both have major league experience. Have to begin somewhere. Hitting coaches do not need major league experience to work on mechanics and approach, or to front toss, or to throw flips, or to show video. They need to know what they are doing, of course. But they need to be self-motivated hard workers and be able to communicate very well with a variety of players from different backgrounds. They will study pitchers and trends. Look at advance scouting reports and all of the data analysis of their guys. Understanding those things are more important that how many years of MLB experience they have.

Two young inexperienced energetic analytical-approach coaches. It isn’t what they know, it is their ability to communicate what they DO know to the player. Like any coach, it will take time to build a rapport with each player and earn their trust and respect. It is valid to wonder how they will do with guys like Mancini, Santander, Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, etc… We do not know what impact Fuller may have had with guys in spring training or at the alternate site in 2020. He may already be a bit of a known quantity to some of the guys. But, maybe more importantly, the wave of guys coming from the minor leagues will feel comfortable with him and that should help with their transitions.

Not really a surprise on Fuller. He got a lot of play this year with the improvement of guys like Rutschman and Stowers.

I agree. The exercise is just to see who people would keep, given the fodder still on the roster vs. prospects of similar stature or profile.

Could certainly happen that way. I think Grenier has a shot. The glove is really good, but we know the offensive issues and has about average range.

I would break it down like this: Definite additions: DL Hall Terrin Vavra Kyle Bradish Probable Additions: Rob Neustrom Felix Bautista Kevin Smith Nick Vespi Possible Additions: Ofelky Peralta, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Cadyn Grenier, Cameron Bishop Food for thought, but who would you rather keep if you have to keep one of each line? Stewart vs. Neustrom Fry vs. Vespi Bannon/Martin vs. Grenier Kriske vs. Knight Baker vs. Sedlock

That is very fair. If you have to choose between Fry and Vespi, who would you keep? Maybe neither? I will not assume that what happened to Fry is fixable. We hope it is. Fry is twice the salary of Vespi. Vespi is 3-4 years younger than Fry. I think Vespi would be selected if left off, and it depends on which team selected him whether he comes back or not. A factor in many of these pitchers who have struggled in AAA (Smith, Vespi, Knight, and others) is reported to be related to the different balls, sure. But why did the Orioles not renew Kennie Steenstra or Gary Kendall? IDK. The jump from AA to AAA was reported to be larger than normal last year. Same with the jump from AAA to MLB. Smith, Blaine Knight and Vespi all looked great in AA. Probably all just bullpen/middle inning guys. I am particularly not huge on Smith, but I think Vespi and Knight might have swing and miss sliders in the pen. Knight’s struggles seemed to begin after the birth of his first child. Many of us can relate to that, lol.

Most of our best talent does not need to be added yet. And having the #1 pick in the R5, we should take at least one this time around. After this season, I hope it is as you say it should be.

Strom certainly has been a quality coach for a long time. And the criticism on Holt is fair. He appeared to be in over his head this year. Brocail was solid, certainly. Not sure why they needed to make a change, but when the second pitching coach is called a much better communicator, good grief. I do not know why the Orioles needed to move Chris Holt to the pitching coach slot. Perhaps they wanted to keep him from leaving. At the moment, the jury is still out for me. Was he a gimmick guy, who simply extolled the virtues of the sticky stuff and turned some average guys into solid performers? Taught a change up to Means? If the young guys do not take steps forward in 2022, Elias will have to address that position. I know he is loyal to his guy, but Baltimore pitchforks are sharp and quick.