Jammer7

I hope they find a pitcher they really like at 33 or 40. We need more high end arms in the system. They could always go over slot later, like with Baumler, but some good high school and college arms likely available there.

They should take some shots at high upside risks, absolutely. Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler represent that, I think, but in a place where it would not hurt as much as missing at 1-1. I wonder if they believe they are deep enough to take that level of risk at 1-1, just yet. At some point soon, he should be turning some of the prospect capital into major league pitchers. Of course we should not be drafting in the top 5 picks of the draft after this year. And the international player pipeline should start bearing more high end prospects as well.

I think/hope this is who Mike Elias is. Hard to say, just yet. He was part of the Astros group that selected Carlos Correa, but what role did he play in that exactly? We know their model favors track record/data, but I believe him when he says it is a balance with scouting. I think we’ll see him take high upside HS gambles, but I tend to think not this next draft at 1-1. If there is a guy like Lee, who will hit and hit with power from both sides, that is tough to pass on. If you take a guy like Elijah Greene, you had better be sure.

Neustrom’s stats are not awesome, agreed. He is not currently listed on many top 30 lists, but he should be in the back end somewhere as an older guy who is beginning to make positive strides. On the other hand, it’s only one good season. For me, he looks to be a solid defender, but not a gold glove candidate. Neustrom had some really legendary home runs this year, one around 480 feet in Hartford. Many others that were in the 450 foot range from what I have read over the year. The 31 2B, 16 HR and 83 RBI’s are not gaudy, but very solid numbers from a guy who is 25 next month. The .748 OPS in AAA is tough when half of it is at Norfolk. He had an .830 in Bowie. His fly ball rate has increased, which I find very encouraging, considering his power, which has to be a 70 raw power grade. The reports on him have been that he has great raw power, but did not get to it in games and settles for making lesser contact. The K% is at about 25% in AAA, but was much less in lower leagues. The BB% was 11.3 in AAA, and around 10% otherwise. Solid numbers. It appears he is responding to coaching and driving the ball much more. He stayed healthy for the season, which was important. I see a steady performer, maybe unspectacular compared to Stowers, but a steady corner guy. Maybe a bit of a platoon guy, who gets some DH time as well. What I like about him is he drives in runs. He finds a way to be productive. If you have a runner on 3B early in the game with one out, Neustrom will hit a ground ball to 2B or a sac fly to the OF. He will get the run home. His general line each game was 1-4 with at least an RBI. If we have to choose between Neustrom and Stewart, it is an easy choice for me. Neustrom does not walk as much as Stewart, but he does not miss late on every fastball he sees. Neustrom could probably benefit from a bit more time in AAA, and perhaps a June call up. Stewart is a DH at this point, with very little power numbers to show for his 608 PA’s. To be consistently late on average fastballs and not make the adjustments all season long was just maddening to me. There is no excuse for that for a professional hitter. Perhaps I am overly aggravated by this and he can turn out a productive season in 2022. A lot would have to happen for him to have that opportunity.

For me, the 40 man spot is the issue. Obviously, there are many moving parts. Do they keep Mancini and Santander? If they are traded or non-tendered, then perhaps they keep Stewart for the time being as a DH. That is the only way I can see him staying. Being a LH hitter, on a team that is heavily RH helps him. Even with all that, the OF talent has him on the outside looking in. McKenna hit really well in AAA, and we need to find out if that has any merit. Playing everyday would allow us to find out. Nevin might be a guy who fills a gap instead of Stewart, but again, like you said, he did not hit well in AAA. But there was progress there. Tyler has to get stronger, but if Mancini is moved I can see him on the roster because of his defensive flexibility. Jahmai Jones may end up playing some OF as well. It is too bad, but I think DJ does not deserve to have a chair when the music stops, unless Mike Elias makes trades/moves from the OF depth. He might be a mediocre bench hitter (replacement level), with no defensive value on another roster. In Baltimore, he is simply surrounded by players better, or project better, than him and they are pushing him aside.

It is long overdue. Something as simple as signing a lease for most people, is problematic for minor league players. It will be interesting to follow different teams’ solutions.

I have to agree completely. He will be 28 next month. He has not done anything to keep his 40 man spot over several younger guys with actual upside. Stewart was supposed to have some OBP, which he does because he walks. BA does not mean very much these days, but his line for his career is .214/,329/.403/.732. How much longer are we supposed to give him? His K% in 2020 was 33.9, which was slightly improved in 2021 at 28%. He had a 94 WRC in 2021 as opposed to a very respectable 123 in 2020, albeit a SSS and propped up by a hot 10 days. He is a terrible OF, evidenced by his -9 DRS in 2021, according to Fangraphs. He plays a power position in corner OF, but provides very little power. I would rather play McKenna out there, even Nevin, over Stewart, until Stowers and Neustrom are ready. I cannot justify keeping him on the 40 man with so many younger prospects that could be claimed in the R5.

Lost in this trade was the opportunity to evaluate our young starters. But, Kremer and Akin regressed, Zimm was injured, Baumann injured, Lowther and Wells got the yo-yo treatment, and Pitching Coach Chris Holt disappeared for a month. Jones hit well for about two months before struggling after an injury. He likely isn’t an average defender at 2B, but he is not awful. I still believe he will hit.

That’s probably true, considering he will not be arbitration eligible at this rate until he’s 40.

Bundy sputtered for 2-3 years, not nine. IDK, I have personally had enough. Waging my campaign. “Dump the mullet!” I know he is a favorite of many here, but how long do we have to wait to do the inevitable? He is a favorite based on a glimpse of what he could be.

Have you looked at his career stats? He is semi-healthy one of every three years. And that one year is on strict innings limits and rest in between. For me, it is about his preparation. I am obviously just speculating, as I have no inside knowledge of his situation. But the majority of his injuries in recent years are preventable with proper training today. It is certainly more than just bad luck. He has three seasons above 25 innings in his 9 year career. 87 innings in 2014, 32 innings in 2018 and 82 in 2019. In his three seasons in MLB, he has 23.2 innings. How long do we keep that non productive pitcher with promise? We need people that actually post up. He and Kremer went downhill about the time they worried more about their hair than their results between the lines. I really hate mullets! ? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harvehu01.shtml

I can understand your thoughts. At first glance a month ago, I was wondering the same. I do think Nevin will hit for a bit more power and better average. He needs to get stronger. If Mancini gets traded, Nevin could end up on the roster as a corner utility. He can play an average 1B, a tick below average LF and is said to be better than they thought at 3B. I want to start by saying I think Bannon can hit somewhat better than he did in 2021. But his bat will not carry the rest of his game. I think Bannon’s profile is very limited at this point. He is well-below average at 2B. He is clearly not a SS, so he is strictly a 3B. Not a utility profile that Elias and Hyde like. And he is not even an average defensive 3B. At 5-07, and squatty frame, I just do not see it. To me, he has gotten too muscular and it looks like it has affected his mobility some. And other than a 10 day stretch, what did he do this year to deserve to stay on the roster? I know he was injured for some of that, but yikes. He was more or less a smaller RH version of DJ Stewart. Is Bannon better than Gutierrez? Not for me, not close. His ceiling to me would be Dan Uggla, without playing 2B. He might be a guy that gets traded in a minor deal. Diaz gets one more chance, I think. It may depend on his AFL stint as to his fate.

True, but none of them have been there in years. And which of them beyond Price has been productive after they left TB? The current model they seem to like is to make several trades and acquire talent they can improve upon and flip for more talent. They sign a Charlie Morton, a Rich Hill, a Chris Archer, etc…and get them to pitch well. They have had several successful reclaimation projects. The trade they made for Archer to get back Austin Meadows, Shane Baz, and Tyler Glasnow…good grief! But then they sign Wander Franco. They get Patino for Snell. The list goes on. They are a regular season juggernaut. They got nothing from Lowe and Cruz against Boston. Franco, Arozarena, Kiermier and Meadows showed well, but not enough.

I assume it’s Hunter you want to keep? For me, that ship has sailed. All the talent in the world, and it produces no value between the lines. But maybe they see Kriske as someone who they can get something out of. I did not think much of what I saw, but that was a really small sample. I do think Krehbiel may stick around as a useful set up guy. He has some nice late action on his pitches, and a quick arm. The real question for me is, what does Mike Elias think of Felix Bautista, Cody Sedlock, Blaine Knight, Gray Fenter, Cameron Bishop and Nick Vespi? And does he like them more than some guys currently on the roster. I think Bautista should be protected, despite the walks. And Sedlock may have figured some things out and learned how to pitch with his off speed more. Blaine Knight looked great in AA, not so much in AAA. Fenter came on late in AA. Bishop really showed flashes before getting injured. His AFL stint should help evaluate him. Vespi is in a similar situation. A decent LH out of the pen with the uncertainty of Scott and Fry might be intriguing.

Ciuffo is an interesting talent. They seem to like him. Do we keep Wynns and Ciuffo? Or just Wynns? Ciuffo’s track record and history of drug suspensions make for a risky 40 man keep.

Pitchers are different, especially after the COVID loss of 2020. And they may have lost confidence in AAA pitching coach Steenstra. And he did move up one level from Aberdeen earlier. Grayson is 21, Dorrian is 25. Bottom line, I am not sure he is protected or not. That is what I said originally. I would probably not, if it was me making the decision. He is 25 yoa with one solid season in AA. At this point, I cannot say he projects to keep doing that. Perhaps they believe in him like you do and they protect him. So be it. I just think they would have moved him up if they liked him that much like Neustrom, Stowers, Rutschman and Westburg. Roster spots are going to be tight for fringe prospects.

Maybe there will be a team that covets a LH corner INF bat. Maybe a NL team. That said, I doubt he would get selected. I doubt he is put on the 40 man. The Orioles are starved for LH bats, but I don’t think they see him as a piece. If they did, I think they would have moved him up to AAA in July or early August.

You can certainly make a case. He had a great year with the bat. Doubters might point to his lack of physicality, track record and splits. Mixed reviews on defense. LH power bats are definite value.

I am not ready to give up on Jahmai Jones yet. My eyes tell me that he should hit line drives from gap to gap after he makes a few adjustments and gets comfortable. The defense was not average, but it wasn't terrible either. Perhaps he ends up a fourth OF type, but I do believe in the bat. A lot of names not listed in the OP go before Jones would. Elias did not pay $10 million in Cobb's salary to give up on Jones this soon. The first thing that has to happen is to get down to 40 on the 40 man. We are currently at 47 with seven on the 60 day IL. SO, the seven that need to go immediately after the World Series concludes: Fernando Abad (free agent) Matt Harvey (free agent) Spenser Watkins Konner Wade Thomas Eschelman Brooks Kriske Hunter Harvey Yes, that once great prospect who cannot stay healthy long enough to be worth keeping. All of the talent in the world is nothing when you cannot stay healthy. It may be that his preparation is poor in the off season or whatever, but he should not be this injury prone in this day and age. Something else is going on here. For me, it is time to cut him loose and move on. There is plenty more cuts and/or trades to come. The next group are those I think are most vulnerable for rule 5 protection and new rule 5 picks from other organizations. Pedro Severino (non-tender) Pat Valaika (non-tender) DJ Stewart Eric Hanhold Travis Lakins Sr. Isaac Mattson Rylan Bannon Richie Martin Zach Burdi Ultimately, this roster should have a lot of turnover through trades, waiver claims and such. Mancini is a likely trade candidate, and probably Santander as well if the return has enough value. Diplan, Krehbiel and Greene are possible bullpen pieces and I think they have a chance to stay. The rule 5 additions are going to be interesting. DL Hall, Kyle Bradish, Terrin Vavra, Rob Neustrom, Kevin Smith (despite a poor stint in Norfolk) and Felix Bautista seem certain to be protected. But Ofelky Peralta, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Cadyn Grenier, Pat Dorrian, Nick Vespi and Cameron Bishop can all make the case to stick. Some of these guys may be traded as well.

Got 45 the first time, and took it again for a 60. The brain is not what it once was.

@Moose Milligan really explained the situation well. Several great posts, Moose. Exactly my thoughts. Roch and Meoli are the only guys I really enjoy reading anymore. Maybe Melewski on occasion. But I do not expect much insight or analysis. Twitter has become my main source from accounts like On The Verge, Orioles Statistics, Matt Kremnitzer, and so on. As far as what questions we want, nothing realistic comes to mind. Elias is not going to answer any difficult question and give away any information that might take away some negotiating advantages. Things are just done that way these days. And any GM who gives away answers to these things any clearer than Elias provides, is usually out of a job soon after. Many here post their speculative thoughts based on the factors they perceive coming together. And that, is about the best we can get, until it actually happens. Speculation and opinion, along with some very good analysis, well that is why I am here.

I agree, but he has to continue to stay healthy. With continuity, there is some more there, I think. Hays became pull happy at times in the second half, and was off balance often. He pulled off many pitches on the outer half. In years past, he had more power to all fields. The swing did become shorter, and it seemed like he chased less. He still has more to prove, but 2022 should give us a more definitive answer.

Yes. Mateo and Gutierrez may never be star quality regulars, but they can still be of value to a winning team. They both could be the late bloomer type of player that the Orioles were hoping to land with all of those waiver claims. Urias may be less upside with a higher floor, but he has shown to be a solid unspectacular producer.

Interesting. You had me there for a second. And then I remembered that Bancy Thomas is his grandfather. Richie can play defensively. It is a shame he has been set back with all of the injuries.

It is unfortunate, but I think his time here may have run its course. Maybe he stays as minor league depth, but someone will want him to come in and compete for a 40 man spot. I wish him well either way.