Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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@Frobby Does Sisco have trouble with a particular pitch in the zone? To me, his bat looks a little slow, especially with the inside fastball.
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This signing having this much debate is what the off season is all about. Much ado about not much. It is a solid minor league depth signing. There is some talent there, so they'll take a look and see what this guy is today and what they can do to improve him. At best, maybe the Rangers did help him improve his hitting mechanics tremendously. And perhaps he presses Sisco some, since Sisco hasn't hit much either and Ciuffo's rep is that he is a solid defender. At worst, Chris Woodward's comments prove to be fluff and the Orioles release him in Spring training and he packs his bong and leaves.
It was interesting to see his statistics and note how little he actually played in the minor leagues. He has only had more than 259 at bats in a season twice. In 2017, in AA he had 371 at bats and had his best year. Not that it was great by any means. The walk rate is good, strikeout rate is poor. My thought is he would have had to have some off field concerns to not play much more than he did, which the weed suspensions would point to. It isn't that the Rays don't know how to develop players, so something has been off.
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I like the signing. There was talk the Orioles were going to take him with the 22nd pick in the first round. The Rays took him at #21, so the Orioles took Hunter Harvey. When I looked at the first round picks that year, it was a poor draft. Other than Kris Bryant and Tim Anderson, a lot of disappointment.
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3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
Still doesn't mean that's what he decided to do instead of going to Intructs. the orioles listed him as having a non-COVID related "injury" as why he was not there. I seriously doubt the kid missed his first real taste of some kind of pro instruction to finish a degree he'll never need.
Either way, it doesn't matter now. It matters what he does on the field when he arrives next spring and more importantly next summer.It was announced by Elias as a "non-sports medical reason." Or did that change?
My post was just referring to the thought I had before it was announced that he was finishing his degree. I never doubted he was legitimately sick. Why would the Orioles say he was sick if he was not? That would make no sense.
Like you said, it does not matter at all now. Time to get to work.
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Thank you for sharing that. It was what some of us suspected after all. Good on Heston! Now get to work kid!
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1 hour ago, Hazmat said:
There's a video of Leiter out there on the interwebs pitching in shorts. The dude has tree trunks for legs. I'm no expert but I think it bodes well for Leiter and perhaps takes some concern away from the fact that he's not 6'4".
Yeah, I remember that he has very strong legs. I believe he also has elite extension out front at his release point and his stuff is out of the same tunnel as well. All of that does bode well. The downward plane angle , meh, we'll see. It isn't ideal, but the rest of it might make up for that.
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2 hours ago, El_Duderino said:
Good point. If the first four picks to the way Callis has it, then I’d draft Lieter. This org needs some high floor pitching prospects.
He is not a physical guy at 6'-00", but he is polished and cerebral with great bloodlines. If he takes a pitcher in an early pick, this is the kind of profile I think Elias may go for. I'd like a little more physicality, but so be it. Watching his Q & A session the other day, I noticed he spoke about what he has learned about pitching prospects. Makeup was #1 trait for him.
Don't sleep on Brady House 3B (Ga. HS). He pressed some over the summer, but has a long track record of mashing good velo against the best competition. The Binelas kid has defensive concerns that he is probably a LF, but he rakes and we know Elias likes LH power hitters.
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We don’t know what Stewart really is yet. He needs to have consistent at bats to show it, either way. I am not a fan of Stewart’s overall game, he is going to have to show me. But I think he has earned the opportunity, at least until Yusniel Diaz comes up.
If we did not have Chris Davis eating a roster spot, maybe then Schwarber makes sense on a one year deal. Personally, I would rather have people than actually have defensive value on the roster, though.
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20 hours ago, weams said:
I saw Pop in AA before he went down. He was good. Threw hard.
I agree with the sentiment of hating to lose Pop, but he is an unknown as to where he is at this time. I think Fenter is likely coming back. The thing is, we fans do not know much about what these guys have been doing for the past 9 months. Elias and his staff do. It may end up being the wrong call, like Yaz, but they will own it and move on. No front office gets all decisions correct. And we have yet to see the effects of what Elias is doing with his youthful player acquisitions. A year or two from now, we all may say there is enough evidence to make conclusions either way. For now, I do tend to trust their moves until there is concrete evidence to the contrary. If they stink, I’ll break out the pitchfork and join some of those who are critical.
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17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Sure..all the time. Doesn’t mean I won’t express my opinion and use the facts I have at hand to back it up.
You often bring up excellent points, and you bring a lot to the boards. However, I have yet to see you admit you are wrong, or even fail to have the last word. Over and over again recently, you are hyper-critical of Elias and his moves. But yet, these moves are based on information Elias obviously has. It is either information you have or you don't. At best, he interprets the information differently than you. Or maybe it is Sig, an actual rocket scientist, who interprets the data differently than you. These two guys have played key roles in two extremely successful organizations in the last decade, most recently rebuilding the Astros to become a world champion. So it seems they actually have proven they know what it is they are doing. I do not know you, but I do not believe those accomplishments are on your resume, are they?
So, when we disagree with you, and we are inclined to go along with Elias and Sig, you should understand why. I am not saying they are always correct, certainly not. But chances are they know something you, and the rest of us, do not. I happen to agree with you about Pop, based on what little info we have on the two guys they took. But I admire their conviction for scouting for what they want and going for it. When they are wrong, I am sure they will admit it.
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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
So let me get this straight. Elias and his staff are totally infallible? They never have and never will be wrong?
Next thing..why do you come to a message board and discuss these things if your thought process is, they know everything and there is no reason to question it.
Are you ever wrong?
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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:So, if the Os are so much better evaluation (and btw, there is zero evidence of that right now), it won’t matter where they draft in the first round.
Now you know that is not true, and there are other teams with a similar general philosophy. Of course it matters where you draft, and that is the whole point of tanking. You pick high in every round of the rule 4, rule 5 and claims on waivers. It pays to suck for a while.
I would not say there is no evidence, but I would not say it is clear and convincing either. I will not even count Rutschman, because a trained chimp would have drafted Adley. I would say that Henderson, Kjerstad, Westburg, Stowers, Haskins, Hernaiz, J. Ortiz, Mayo, Baumler and Servideo, among many others, will have a lot to say about that. Time will prove it, sure. And they will miss on some, no doubt. But I believe they will miss less than most teams. There will be no Rowells or Hobgoods.
I believe in what they are doing. To me, they know what they develop well and they go after it with conviction. They scout and data mine for specific traits. And they believe in their player development staff. Perhaps what will be most impressive is when some of those day three pitching prospects and small college finds make it to the major leagues.
This organization works to develop character as well, not just the talent. That is one of the things about Matt Blood and Mike Elias that I think is uncommon, although they are not the only organization to do it.
Lastly, I think the way in which college and high school players are scouted today will lead to a lower failure rate. With all of the data collected, and all of the showcases and such, the evolution of the scouting industry in the past 5-7 years has been astounding. That is why players’ careers are shorter now. Tons of young talent coming through the minor league systems today. And probably less PED use is a factor as well, although you cannot convince me that certain 40 year old DH’s aren’t using something.
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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Once you get past the top 3 picks or so, there is very little historical difference in career WAR between a top 10 pick and the rest of the first round. The only things being the worst team in the league guarantees you are the #1 pick and a higher draft allotment.
Everything else in terms of rebuilding is the same for every other team.
I am aware of the historical data, but that implies that all teams are equal in terms of their ability to evaluate and develop players. For once in my lifetime, the Orioles have an advantage in that area. A smart team plays to its strengths. In a short time, the international market will provide the higher end talent we would miss in the rule 4 draft when the team begins making competitive strides.
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9 hours ago, hoosiers said:
Not going to check articles, but I thought draft was to be 20 rounds in 2021. Like 2020, IIRC, teams will only be on the hook for about $100k or so of drafting signing bonuses with the majority to be paid out in 2021.
I believe you are correct. It is supposed to be at least 20 rounds.
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3 hours ago, LookinUp said:
I'll keep going back to SG's example of the Cozart deal. He's right that we could have built our farm by taking on cash in a trade. That's an example that's hard to argue with except in terms of ROI.
Is there a FA that's "worth it" for this team? I'd argue yes. There are guys that would make us competitive. Not against the Yankees and Rays, but certainly in terms of being a decent team that fans want to watch.
Does spending that money take away from our future ability to spend? SG says no. I think that's where I disagree, knowing there's a lot of unknown in there.
I can see your point, I just disagree, in general terms in the Baltimore market. Spending money on a veteran player like Iglesias makes sense to shore up the defense for your young pitching and to provide an example/mentor for younger players, especially the younger Latin players. Spending a small amount of money on a veteran starter, or a reliever for that matter, helps provide an example for the daily routines and such for the younger pitchers. It also eats innings to stabilize things and perhaps you can build some value for later trades of that veteran, as they did with Milone. These were astute value-based low cost acquisitions that enabled them to properly develop young players at the major league level more efficiently. It also enabled them to see others perform and see what they have in those players to best determine current and future values. They were able to put many players in a position to be successful, which is what development should be about. If they did not have the Davis and Cobb contracts, this might be a consideration to me. But the Davis contract, in particular, is an albatross of the highest order.
I think they can find very talented players that are low cost and help them improve to the point that some may become major league players. Look at all of the former waiver claims and low cost acquisitions that have come through in the last year. Many of the players we have acquired were once high draft picks or expensive international signings. Tanking sucks for most fans, but it is a proven strategy to build up a talent base fairly quickly.
The Orioles have diverted much of their budget to improving the infrastructure of the organization. Whether it be capital improvements in structures and facilities, technological advances, more staff and coaches in the development pipeline, or international players and development, they have had much needed improvements in all of those areas thanks to the diversion of money they had been spending on the major league team in an ill-advised era from 2016-2018.
Being a "decent team' means mediocre and caught in between. Drafting consistently around 15-25 brings you a lot less talent in the rule 4 draft. We can make up for that in the international market, but we are not there yet. It is hard to root for a mediocre team, I'm personally sick of that, "Yay, we are the third or fourth best team in the AL East." That sucks!
I think Elias is doing a great job! He is transparent for a GM. I find that refreshing. It is always about the money, sure. Owners are in the business to make money. And I believe they will spend responsibly when the team is ready to contend.
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15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I don't know about you guys but I'm excited!
Yeah, not much to see here. But why not take a shot on a guy like this? Costs nothing but coach hours. The Winter (virtual) Meetings are this coming week, I think? Maybe something will come along beyond the R5 draft, but then maybe nothing until February.
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I admit that my expectations are aggressive, no doubt. But that is what I expect from their talent and growth. Both are quite capable of taking the next steps and having these kinds of numbers.
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I expect them both to continue improving their swing decisions. As they do that, their OBP and slugging will increase. I also believe Hays was miscast as a lead off hitter out of necessity. I think it took away some of his aggression, but perhaps it was good for his growth in plate discipline.
I expect Hays to settle on his set up and the mechanics of his swing. He constantly changes things. In 2019 Spring training, before his hand injury, he was swinging the bat at an elite level with his hands a little higher and back near his load position. In 2020, he changed his hands set up to lower and hands more in front, causing him to be late often and without as much power.
I expect Hays to play LF as much as he plays CF, with an occasional DH, which hopefully helps him stay healthy. I expect Santander to play primarily in RF, with some DH.
Numbers wise, I think both will improve. Santander should be in the .280/.350/.550/.900 range. Hays .270/.340/.500/.840. Hays has every tool and can be a star, but his all out nature as an OF is a blessing and a curse. He has to understand situations and the importance of saving that for when it really matters.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
I never said he’s an idiot. I also said I don’t believe it’s his decision.
It’s the cheap ass ownership group that we unfortunately have to deal with. I do think Elias is giving us GM speak as to reasoning why the decision was made. Seeing as every single GM in the history of time does this, it’s not a leap to say this.
You have called Mike Elias a liar several times in your posts in the past few days. You have repeatedly said this was a bad decision. You are entitled to your opinion, as we all are. Despite several posters trying to explain the logic to you intelligently, you remain steadfast in your criticism and that any opinion you do not share is not legitimate. The opinion of 30 major league teams is that he is not worth his projected arbitration salary. Is that legitimate?
I am done. We have beat this to death. Down arrow me again, I dig it. I wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I think we should argue with other people for a while. I need space.
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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
There is no real legit argument that regular at bats aren’t there for Nunez until Diaz is an option up here.
If you say so, Rob. It’s not an argument. It is fact since Mike Elias released him in favor of others. There are still several decisions to be made, subtractions and additions. Before you have a coronary event, maybe wait a bit and see what else Mike Elias has in store. Maybe he knows something you don’t know. Or maybe he’s just a lying idiot like you say. Whatever.
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2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
I'm not excited that the team is making moves because guys are cheap, especially when the other option is around $2 million, which should be chump change for major league organizations.
I'm just not sure I get this particular set of skills. Now perhaps Elias is going to DFA him and try to sneak him into the minor league system as depth. I guess there are worse guys to do this with, but I really would like to think this is a transition year where the Orioles are starting to bring up guys that will be contributors to a winning future and not place holders.Shaw has nothing to do with Nunez. There is no correlation at all. Shaw should be DFA’d at some point, probably soon. He can be outrighted. You’re not supposed to get excited about a move like this. It’s a potential depth move, with a big LH power upside if he can make some larger improvements. Chances are slim he can do that, but why not take a shot? He’ll be in AAA, unless he makes huge strides. And he does remind me of Chris Davis quite a bit.
I am not sure if Nunez was making what Valaika is due, projected around $1 million, that he would still be an Oriole. I doubt it. Roster space is one thing, roster flexibility is another, but he just would not have gotten the at bats. They need the at bats for Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, Stewart, Mullins and Diaz when he comes up. Yes, some injury history in there, sure. But the upside and potential value in that group can only be developed with experience. They need these guys to get their at bats. They are all potential members of the next competitive team the Orioles have. And like 2020, Iglesias, and several others, might get some at bats at DH.
Why keep a guy around with no options, whose only tool is his bat, when he’s not going to get at bats? I think that is smart, not cheap. Now if they did that to Mancini, that would be cheap. Without the albatross of the Davis contract, I still think Nunez is out. He needs to be a regular to be productive, he’s not a bench guy.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
At the end of the day, you guys are right. The market dictates the value and the market decided he was not worth what he was going to get in arbitration. Whether his previous production and age suggests he SHOULD be worth that, the market decided it was not.
I agree with that. That is why I wrote, “not right now anyway.” These are different times, but Nunez will likely end up an opportunity. I am not sure that he will get more than a minor league deal with a Spring invite. He’s a flawed player, no doubt, but he can have serious exit velocity when he strikes the ball. Maybe he should go to Japan, where he would mash.
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42 minutes ago, Philip said:
That’s fine and true, but the Rays are the best in the biz at developing talent. If they’ve given up on him, it’s fair to think they exhausted all the possibilities first. I think Grenier might not pan out, and Hall is still a couple years off, so if the Os think they see something worthwhile, Wander certainly has some appeal.
Different Wander. This one is with the Twins. I seriously doubt this one is taken by the Orioles. Way too far away, but certainly has tools.
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26 minutes ago, Philip said:
Well I guess. I trust mike. But regarding swings, it’s possible to have a fine swing and still not be able to hit anything. I didn’t check his K rate( oh I just see your comment about his K rate... um, that’s not good) or his contact rate, but I would hope they are both good.
I was talking about a singular swing, one, when referring to the video I was watching. And you are correct, but then you have to try to find out why that is? Maybe contact lenses helps, or eye exercises, or what have you.
His K rate in the minors is just under 28%, so yeah, that's bad. And yet he still has a career minor league OPS of .861. Being that he played in the PCL probably skews that a bit, but the power is legit. We'll see what Elias does with him.
Did the O's just sign their backup catcher of the future?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Thanks for posting those. Seems to indicate what I thought, if I read them correctly.