Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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@Wildcard, I agree. Every team picks up waiver claims on occasion. Good teams would do it more often if players they liked were still available when they would have an opportunity to claim them. A piece here and there, even if it is for minor league depth. The Yankees picked up Alberto, for instance, and then waived him before the Orioles picked him up. Although they weren’t waiver claims, Taylor and Muncy were scraps before they got to the Dodgers and made swing changes. There is value out there, and while it may not be exciting for some, it potentially adds to the talent base of this team.
As for the Rule 5, Elias kept Martin, but has sent back the other three players taken in his time here. Elias has to take shots like this to acquire talent. Take a look, see what you actually have and if it will stick on your club. We may well get to a point where we do not take a player in the Rule 5, but we’re not there yet. I would be surprised if they do not take at least one R5 player.
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On 11/16/2020 at 1:07 PM, Obando said:
I think Elias will protect Diaz, Baumann, Lowther & Mattson, with an outside chance he could protect Bannon as well since he is close to the majors and can play 2B/3B. Bannon did well in his brief trial at Norfolk at the end of 2019, and I could see another team taking him in the Rule V because of his versatility & gamer style. Losing Bannon wouldn’t be a huge loss if he gets picked, but he’s a good guy to have around for depth, so I don’t know if I’d risk losing him. I don’t think anyone will pick Zach Pop because he’s coming off the surgery and no one has seen him pitch in 2 years. Otherwise, he’s someone we’d definitely have to consider protecting because of his upside as a late inning reliever when healthy and success he’s had so far in his short career.
I agree with most of this. I will just counter on Pop that we should not assume that no one has seen him. He has been throwing at a facility in Canada. Someone is seeing him throw. Many of these facilities have ties to major league scouts or coaches. People share info from these facilities all the time. It’s a network.
If Pop is taken, he’s 18 months out from TJ now. So he is throwing off a mound. He should be on a plan and be full go sometime in Spring, maybe May at latest, with no set backs. Plenty of ways to put him on IL and then go on a rehab assignment. Then do his 60 days on a MLB active roster and we lose him.
My guidance on this is if I think he’ll pitch in MLB this season, and I want to keep him, you have to protect him. Mattson will likely be easier to replace than Pop, IMO.
I’m not as high on Bannon, but there is plenty of room.
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10 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Good stuff, Jammer. However, a few nitpicks. Westburg sounds like he has a legit chance to stay at SS. I say no way they move him to 3B this quickly. I bet he gets the great majority of starts at SS at whichever level he plays.
I read the posters comments on Ortiz but haven't seen anything from the O's organization. The fact is that he showed even less power than Graffanino at a level below. I would say their draft pedigree is similar based on reports as opposed to round. Hard to believe Ortiz is the one who skips a level. I hope the poster is right about Ortiz but he think he gets assigned to low A to start.
Of course, sometimes assignments are hard to figure. Grenier certainly didn't do anything at Frederick to earn k a promotion to Bowie but maybe they'd rather stick him there over being aggressive with Graffanino, Hall, or Henderson.
We’ll see about Westburg. You may be right. After watching him for a while now, his frame and body type, I think he’s best suited for 3B. He is going to put on more muscle and weight. They could wait some, but all of those guys cannot play SS. I suppose they could move them around some, and split time in different positions. We’ll see. It may take a while to learn 3B, and that is why I would do it now.
I am looking to find the interview of a player at instructs who said it in an interview. I’ll post it when I find it. The player just said he was amazed how good Ortiz looked. He asked what he did to improve. Ortiz told him he just hit off a tee. lol
My thoughts on Ortiz and Grenier moving up is based on a few things. I want to see the top guys get the development they need to be successful. Ortiz and Grenier are not the top rated players, so they are more or less filling gaps to some extent. These experienced college guys are known to be excellent defensively, and they are only moving up one level from 2018. Well, Ortiz is really two levels up from Aberdeen to Frederick, but he should be able to handle high A-ball. It would have been their natural advancement at this time if not for COVID. Their gloves should carry them anyway, regardless how they hit.
Graffanino just hasn’t played since 2018. He was very difficult to place for me anywhere else in the beginning of the season.
They will sort this out during the Spring, and I’ll probably be wrong on several. Just my guess. Every organization is going to have calls like this to some extent. So it may not be crazy to move people up without the at bats/experience of certain lower levels who should be at the level under normal circumstances.
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AAA: Nevin 1B, Bannon 2B, R. Martin SS
AA: Cullen 1B/3B, Vavra 2B, Grenier SS
A+: Daschbach 1B, A. Hall 2B, J. Ortiz SS, Welk 3B, Graffanino UT
A-: Servideo 2B, Gunnar Henderson SS, Westburg 3B, Hernaiz UT
The most important thing for what I read into Elias’ movements of prospects has been to get legitimate time at each level. Well, that is going to be a challenge for him now to do that. With no minor league season in 2020, how much does roughly two months of alternate camp experience truly benefit a guy like Gunnar Henderson? I still think a HS guy like Henderson goes to Delmarva to start, and then we’ll see.
I think Martin could still benefit from time in AAA, at least a few months.
I see Westburg at 3B, and I think he is moved there sooner than later. He and Henderson could move fast up the ladder and be in AA by season’s end.
Joey Ortiz and Cadyn Grenier are not done by any means. Glove-first guys, sure. But to put them in a UT role at this point is premature a bit. One of the interviews after Fall Instructs had a player commenting about Joey Ortiz looking very improved with the bat. I want to say it was on a MASN podcast.
AJ Graffanino has no minor league at bats above low A-ball, and none since 2018. I saw him a bit in college, and I think he could hit. But Frederick seems a good place to start and let him build some at bats in a UT role. That may be his ultimate profile anyway.
Terrin Vavra spent all of 2019 in low A. I could see him in AA at 2B, maybe some time in CF.
Cullen may not be a legitimate middle infielder, but it looks like he may be able to hit. He’s 5-10, but maybe a move to 3B, some time at 1B or some corner OF time to build a UT profile. Tony’s comparison to Matt Stairs I thought was interesting.
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Padilla will be a fine return for a guy who never pitched for us.
This should conclude the trades made during the 2020 season, right?
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6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
I don’t get why Lopez is some definite to be on the 40 man.
I mean, I know he will be but he’s not good. I wouldn’t keep him over a lot of the you get players we are talking about.
I feel the same. Maybe they want to see what he does in this off season as far as conditioning. Lopez has stuff, but cannot maintain it and lacks physicality. This group obviously embraces conditioning. I think it would help Lopez greatly. We'll see if he does the work.
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I agree. I suspect Mike Elias does as well. So many young arms blown out and just to max out the FB.
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Yeah, the BA top 10 is solid. I would argue that Westburg is somewhere just behind Henderson, and bump Akin out to #11. Akin is still very spotty with his command, especially the secondaries. Henderson and Westburg have a legitimate shot to be a top 100 prospects this time next year, IMHO.
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Watching the videos in recent weeks, I came away impressed that Gunnar Henderson is not in awe of anything. His body language, his comments, he’s impressive. Very athletic and smooth. He has a confident and good-natured flair about him, and I really like that. Very curious to see where he starts in 2021.
It was good to read that Jordan Westburg and Andrew Daschbach are showing well. I read somewhere that Maverick Handley had gotten into great shape and was raking in instructs. We need more catching prospect depth. Hopefully, Kyle Stowers and Zach Watson make a similar progression at the plate.
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I recall Graffanino was supposed to drafted around round 3 per Baseball America’s 2018 pre draft writeup, but slid some late and signed for an overslot deal in round 8. He’s athletic and twitchy, good glove, above average arm, average runner. He was injured in 2018 and had a serious gastrointestinal issue for the entire 2019 season per mlbpipeline.com. Their writeup of him, where they ranked him #23 in the Braves system, said he got much stronger during 2020 and impressed in instructs. They then took down his profile when I went to post it. He is not ranked in our top 30, and I do not think he will be right now. He’s got a lot to prove, but I would not say he is a non prospect just yet. Probably a UT profile, unless the bat improves dramatically.
I saw him play a few times on tv at Washington and I remembered being impressed by his surprising quickness and overall defensive ability. He looked gap to gap, more of a slasher then. Reminded me of Flash, a thin high-waisted long lever body type.
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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Sure, you can keep him but it’s unlikely he would get claimed.
There are certainly other players I cut before him but it’s highly unlikely he ever becomes anything.
You may end up being right on this. The odds are on your side. But he is going to get an opportunity in Baltimore because of his athleticism and his apparent work ethic. His speed and ability to play in the middle infield, along with the obvious strength he added before 2020 and much more explosive swing mechanics, are why I believe he would be claimed.
He may end up being a guy who plays a UT role. I am curious how he would do in CF with that speed and solid above average arm. He’s a known quantity who, if nothing else, provides depth at SS in case Iglesias battles injuries again. I’m not saying he will be an all star, but I would not rule out his being an everyday player on a non-competitive team like the Orioles.
He is also cheap, pre-arbitration. He is not blocked by anyone long term at this point, nor is he blocking anyone. Why not hold what you have as long as there is apparent upside?-
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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:
It would be unusual for a someone with a .581 MLB OPS and negative fielding metrics at the age of 26 to become a good player. But I guess we'll see.
Yeah, I gotcha. This coaching staff is very effective, but I am certainly not expecting miracles. Martin searched for hitting mechanics throughout the entire season. Now and then, there are guys with significant upside who make such gains. The organization was very impressed with his improvements, we’ll see.
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27 minutes ago, wildcard said:
There is a reason to keep Alberto as a platoon player vs lefties. But it has to be at the right price.
Alberto would have the weakest 3B arm in the league. Should we really pay $4-5 million for a platoon player who has no plate discipline and poor defense? I’m out on that. I know you said “right price.” But Sanchez, Urias, Martin, Ruiz and Valaika are all better defenders and all but Sanchez are better overall offensive producers.
Curious where they play Sanchez. I wonder if he is the SS if Iglesias’ option is not picked up. He played 3B in 2018, so maybe Ruiz is vulnerable.
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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Well, you are making this post as if Martin is good.
Martin will surprise some in 2021. He made a lot of progress last off season. Got much stronger and smoother out his swing mechanics. He may have made the team in the Spring. We’ll see, but I keep him.
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14 hours ago, Roll Tide said:
Yeah .... let me know when Urias challenges for the batting title before you make such claims. Urias hit well in 25 ABs but that means nothing. Plus as @wildcard said his defense was very mediocre.
Did Alberto challenge for the batting title until the end? Nah, he struggled badly in September. Urías IS a “better overall hitter.” I know it is a bold thing to say on a few weeks worth of games, but his set up and approach look to be very solid. A Batting title means nothing to me when you don’t walk much. The league has figured out that you do not need to throw Alberto a strike.
Urias drives the ball better, and with more power to all fields. His plate discipline is far superior to a Alberto as well, but Alberto may swing and miss less. As far as the defense, a few errors are no big deal in his debut. Look deeper. He gets to balls that Alberto would not, and has a much better arm. He also made a few really nice plays. I think there is upside there.
If you want to be loyal to Alberto, whose OBP is extremely batting average dependent, and his defense is poor, not just below average, but poor. Then, that’s your choice. For me, he is too expensive for what he actually brings to the table. He was a waiver wire grab, and so is Urias.
I am not saying Urias is an all-star level player. I just think he is likely to be a better overall player than Alberto. Urias may not beat out Yolmer for 2B, but he might be a solid UT option.
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23 hours ago, wildcard said:
You must have seen a different guy than I saw. He committed 4 errors in 9 games. 3 of those at SS. From his minor league history I think he might have a chance at 2B but not SS.
The number of errors is low hanging fruit, but I am looking deeper at his actions, hands, arm, positioning. Has mostly played 2B, from what I understand. He is more athletic than I had read. They must have worked his conditioning hard upon his acquisition.
Urias also made some very difficult plays look easy at SS. Who knows, maybe a little nervous in his debut. IDK, but time will tell. The physical attributes were much much better than advertised though. -
6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
I don't think Urias is in trouble. I would not be surprised if he's going to be given an opportunity to be the everyday second basemen next year.
I agree. Urias is a better overall hitter and fielder than Alberto. His defense was much better than was reported. He was supposedly a fringe 2B, but played well at SS in limited games. His hands looked soft and quick, and the arm and range were average.
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The article isn't clear, but it seems to me that it is quite possible he is finishing the degree up while he is quarantining. Likely much of it is online, so could just be making the best use of his time. Why would the Orioles say it was an injury otherwise? Either way, not concerned.
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12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
Clearly I am failing to get my point across. I'm tired. Have any opinion you want.
At the end of the day, you have an opinion, I have facts. My facts state that Elias has dumped one player that became an impact player and he has not acquired any. Does that mean he will never acquire any? No.
Does it mean he missed something of that the technology may not always have the answers, incomplete. I like a lot of what Elias has done in changing things within the organization, but so far his talent evaluations of players he's brought in have not been very good. Grant it, these guys are waiver claims and few of them will turn into anything, but so far he's found middle/long relievers and utility guys or sub par guys they've run out as starters the last two years.
I expect things to improve, but what we don't know yet is whether he will be given a budget to help improve the team in the future. Afterall, if they are really making coaching moves based on salary (I still don't believe this) then you can throw away any chances of the team being competitive soon so he will need to build completely from within.
My hope was that Elias had the technological and scouting eye to find unearthed talent in other organizations. Instead, he failed to pick up Yaz's potential and the guys he has selected have not shown they are part of a winning future. Sure, maybe we can give him a pass on Yaz, but he also hired the coaches yet the SF coaches in less then a few weeks found a way to make Yaz an impact player.
The man at the top gets credit when things go well, but also must take the blame when they don't.
No, I get it. I respectfully disagree that there is a problem here. Every other team missed on him. Every organization has these kinds of things happen. Now and then, an outlier comes along. There are things that happen in the development of players that you cannot quantify or expect based on three weeks of data.
One of the things that has not been mentioned much is how he has come to take care of his body. Earlier in his minor league career, he did not do as well conditioning his body. He has come to understand the conditioning that it takes to stay healthy. I think that physical training, along with whatever adjustments in approach and swing, has made a difference.
You have hindsight facts, it’s a great benefit to have. I, and others, am pointing out the factors of the decision at that time. I agree they should analyze this and learn what they can, but to dwell on this as a failure, nah. I’m just happy for Yaz. He was not going to get playing time in AAA with the Orioles in 2019.
And I think this will happen more now that there is a focus on scouting and player development. We just will not have room for all of them. The rise of the farm system under Elias has been well documented. To point out the misses is only part of the story. Is the development of the players he kept more important in the long term than a 28 year old who was, in fact, mediocre at AAA for several years? We’ll know that answer in a few years.
I agree with you on most things, and I do hold him accountable. Some of his trade acquisitions look a bit sketchy so far, agreed. But to judge him on one outlier that got sent out, and several guys off waiver claims, nah, that’s not me. Way too early to be throwing bricks at Elias for player acquisition for me.
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20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Elias has brought in different technologies that are supposedly used to help evaluate players as well as help them improve. They used those vests, those devices on the knobs of the bats and Statcast.
What I'm saying is that Elias may want to take a look at what they missed with Yaz. Clearly his development or lack thereof was not on Elias' watch, but he brought in these technologies and they apparently did not indicate that Yaz had the potential to do what he's done.
I also clearly stated that I never had Yaz on any of my lists so you can take the smart ass "What did you miss?" comment and keep it to yourself because that's disrespectful. I don't have nearly the access that the Orioles have on all of his data (Data was collected on AAA players in 2019 and available to the teams) so the question becomes, why did Yaz show nothing and then with some quick changes with SF coaches he becomes an impact player?
If I'm Elias, I want to know the answer to that.I also clearly showed that Elias's record of bringing in similar players to a Yaz has been pretty dismal.
When you take the two together, I think it's fair to ask the question what did they miss? If you don't fine, but at the end of the day, Elias gave away an impact player for nothing and has acquired none in two years. those are facts that can't be denied no matter how much you wanna wear orange colored glasses.
I know Elias wants to know if he missed something in his evaluation, sure. Why wouldn't he. But I doubt he is losing sleep over this.
Yaz was traded on March 23, 2019. At that time, he was a 28 year old OF with average speed, maybe an average arm, below average power for a corner OF that does not play CF. He's 5-10 178 lbs. and was no longer a prospect. He was slowed by injuries, often playing dinged up. Dan Duquette alluded to his injuries in an interview that I saw and stated he had struggled with his progression. He had never really excelled in AAA. He was behind Austin Hays, Yusniel Diaz, Anthony Santander, Ryan McKenna, Cedric Mullins and DJ Stewart for playing time in AA/AAA OF playing time. No one knew that several of these players would struggle with injuries and inconsistency, but they were all much more highly regarded prospects than Yaz. At that time, the only AAA OF he was more highly regarded than was Jaycob Brugman, and he was absolutely terrible. Elias decided to cut bait so that actual prospects could play meaningful innings and get the developmental at bats. No other team even thought so much of him as to take him in the rule 5 draft. Did the Giants know something? No, they just got lucky that this one panned out. They had no idea he would do what he has done, no way.
As far as the technology, it isn't something that will diagnose and fix every swing. It gives you lots of data, and it takes time, more than a few weeks, to work through any changes/adjustments needed. Obviously, Elias and his staff were not impressed with what they saw compared to the other guys. Then, Yaz was traded and something changed over the next few months in AAA for him. Great for him. Maybe he started to make good changes from what he learned from the Elias staff, but it took time to begin to show in games. That is often the case with swing changes, approach adjustments. Maybe it was the Giants who found something. Maybe it was something else, who knows.
Was he going to be the same player in Baltimore, facing the AL East? IDK, I would guess likely not. There have been many examples over they years of players who had impact careers out West and got traded to an Eastern team, only to struggle. Would it have been nice to see him do that here in Baltimore, of course. I just don't see why this has become such a hotly contested thing. Hindsight is easy to see clearly. His tools have never indicated this kind of production. There is not one prospect report that says he would do anything like he is doing.
I know you are pretty positive about Elias and Sig. To point to Elias's failure to produce waiver wire pick ups and minor trades into an impact player is incomplete, honestly, in COVID 2020 crazy season. He has no money to spend, and yet most of the ML team was picked up off waivers and minor league free agency and still competed on most nights. The final record looks worse than it was. I would say his record was excellent in the first half. Santander got hurt and many young players struggled badly. Solid approaches went out the window entirely.
- Pedro Severino had an OPS north of .850 in July/August and he began to look like an all star (offensively), but he chased much more in September and his numbers faded badly to .250/.322/.388/.710
- Jose Iglesias was an impact signing, despite the injuries and many at bats in the DH role .373/.400/.556/.956
- Hanser Alberto is what he is a well below-average defender with little power, and he faded badly in September as well .283/.306/.393/.698
- Pat Valaika was very good, I thought, for what his role is. .277/.315/.475/.791
- Rio Ruiz is probably not the answer at 3B, but I think he gets one more year to see if he can figure it out .222/.286/.427/.713
- Richie Martin will be vastly improved, he reported so much stronger than in 2019 and I think his injury robbed him of a breakout of sorts, the swing looked so much more fluid and quick in Spring camp.
- Ramon Urias might just make Alberto expendable, and I believe he will hit and produce better overall numbers and play better defense.
- Obviously, Dwight Smith Jr. was a failure. Early in 2019, he certainly looked like he was a certain upgrade to Yaz. The the injuries in late May, neck and shoulder. He has not been the same since.
Most of the resources have gone into minor league and international infrastructure. To criticize Elias for the Yaz trade in hindsight, honestly it's silly. No one batted an eye at the time of the deal. Can we just be happy for the guy and not look for someone to blame? If there is a pattern here, then ok, there's a problem. This one baffles everyone because no one saw this coming.
And where would Yaz play in our OF next season? Over Mountcastle, Santander, Hays, Mullins, Mancini...?
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21 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I think the issue here isn’t whether Yaz should have gotten a major league shot based on his MiL performance, but whether the Orioles’ development team hindered his performance by trying to force him into a box regarding his approach at the plate. That’s what Yaz has said. I can’t really blame Elias’ crew for failing to pick that up in the few weeks they had to look at Yaz before he was traded. It’s on the old regime if Yaz was poorly coached.
I think it is this, and several unfortunate injuries along his development. I remember DD was high on him at one point, but this kind of thing happens in every organization. Different coaches, different opinions, different training methods, whatever it is, it just clicks differently in different players. We have had success stories in Baltimore with guys that just needed a change of scenery too. Melvin Mora, Chris Davis, and several more come to mind.
I remember being a little disappointed when he was traded, but I remember thinking we had several guys ahead of him. I remember liking what I had seen in him, but thought he had a ceiling as a 4th OF.
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I am with SG on the DSJ vs. Yaz decision. Yaz had to go to San Francisco to become who he currently is. Something clicked there, and not in Baltimore with the previous regime. Yaz is, as SG said, a 1% outlier. Good for him. Seems like a great guy. But he was not a prospect anymore. Anyone could have taken him as a rule 5, but that did not happen either. So, 29 teams missed him, not just Baltimore.
With DSJ, they saw a guy who can hit any and all pitching, and likely thought he was enough of an athlete to improve in LF and be maybe a tick below average out there. Instead, they got a guy who had some injuries, shoulder and neck, that really affected him in 2019. I think his throwing was much better in the Spring of 2019 when I saw him. After that, he was out of shape, timid and really ambivalent about his defense. The shoulder took a below average arm and turned it into a little league arm. The neck injury incurred when he ran into the wall, likely made him never want to take a risk again out there. And it shows.
Two years ago, this looked a lot better than it turned out. The facts are the facts, but I think most teams would have done what the Orioles did.
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1 hour ago, ScGO's said:
I don't see him getting picked. Do we have the space on the 40 man for him?
I don't know what to say without seeing him, but I doubt he is protected. And even if he is picked, I doubt he would stick for the entire year. That said, if he really has turned some corners, then there is room. It may be at the expense of another prospect, though.
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I found this interesting from MLB.com. Not a ton of info, but a few interesting observations with accompanying quotes from Matt Blood. In particular, this bit on Ofelky Peralta was of interest.
Among the less famous names, a pair of right-handers have really impressed. Ofelky Peralta has been with the organization since he signed out of the Dominican Republic in September 2013. He’s shown promise, but has yet to pitch above Class A ball. That could change based on what he’s showing now, and the 23-year old pitched well against the Rays.
“He’s made some improvements,” Orioles farm director Matt Blood said. “He’s throwing strikes, in the upper-90s with his fastball. He has a changeup and he’s added a breaking ball.”
https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-instructional-league-report
Peralta has teased us before with short stints. But, if he keeps this up, he may get taken in the rule 5. He would have to be a long shot to be protected. Thoughts?
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Analysis of 2020 Rule 5 Eligible players
in Orioles Talk
Posted
For a shoulder, sure. For a TJ, I don’t think it is that concerning if you have the information to make a decision on how the rehab has gone.