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Pickles

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Posts posted by Pickles

    My biggest fear for 2024

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

    I think I already answered that question. 

    By your reasoning, simply winning 95 games, would be justification for poor roster management. 

    How poor could the roster management be if it resulted in 95 wins?

    • Upvote 1

    My biggest fear for 2024

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    Just now, ChuckS said:

    Well, first off they would have likely won more games. 

    But my key takeaway would be that they are wasting the fruits of the the number one farm system in baseball. 

    Is it a waste though if you're winning 95 games?  Isn't that the point of having a good farm system?  Winning games?

    Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens: “C’mon Orioles, Do Something!”

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    How are you defining favored? 
     

    A site like FG is saying no, we aren’t a playoff team.

    Vegas is saying we have like the 4th best odds to win the WL (closer to 5th than 3rd). It has us as the second best odds to win the division with Toronto right on us.

    Second in our division is likely a playoff team. Third is fighting for the spot but decent chance you get in.

    ALC likely only has one team. ALW could send 3 or 4 just like the ALE.

    So, I would say they are probably a favorite to get one of the 4 eligible spots they can get but not by much and it won’t take much for them to not be in that category.

    Favored imo is over 50%.  I think the O's have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs.  I personally actually think it's significantly higher.  I'd put their odds at least at 67%.  That seems to put me in line with Vegas.  I'd wager Vegas is more accurate than FG.

    And honestly, I don't think Dylan Cease moves the needle one way or another very significantly.

    Yeah, there are definitely scenarios where we don't make the playoffs next year.  But is Cease really a buttress against that?  If the issue pops up in the rotation, then yeah he might be.  But if the problem is in the pen or the positional group, then no not really.

    Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens: “C’mon Orioles, Do Something!”

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

    That’s wrong.  If the O’s had scored their expected number of runs, their Pythagorean record would have been 89-73.   See the RH side of the chart here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns

    i think our odds of making the playoffs this year are pretty decent, but we are by no means a shoe-in.  We need continued growth from our young players and reasonable luck with health.  

    Does pretty decent = favored to?

    Because if so, then we're on the same page.

    Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens: “C’mon Orioles, Do Something!”

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

    Huh?

    They won more games than they were expected to and they also scored more runs than they were expected to(from Baseruns).

    How is that using the best of both worlds?

    Both statements are true, they both exceeded their pythag, which is based on RS/RA and also scored more runs than their offense would indicate.

    Since neither of those have been shown to be sustainable they are not likely to continue into next season.

    This article is from Sept 20.

    Being lazy I'll extrapolate it over 162.

    The 2023 Orioles scored 807 runs, they should have scored 775 runs.  (It's off a bit since I'm being lazy and the O's actual runs scored were down from that point in the season).

    If you plug 775 RS and 678 RA into the system you get a .556 WP, or 90 wins.  That's the same record as the Rangers and one up on the Blue Jays, two up on the Mariners.  That may or may not have been a WC team.

    No idea why I just wasted five minutes doing that when I know you won't pay any attention to it.

    Maybe someone else will appreciate it.

     

    Why wouldn't I pay attention to it?  You just proved my point.  Thanks.

    Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens: “C’mon Orioles, Do Something!”

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    Just now, Can_of_corn said:
    1. Team's actual W/L record exceeded their expected wins
    2. Team's actual runs scored exceeded their projected runs scored

    That's the two big ones really.

    Now you can feel free to discount both of them but they are realistic reasons to project the team to win substantially fewer games.

    Both their expected wins and their actual runs (nice how you want to use the best of both worlds to make your argument: the hypothetical when it is convenient and the actual when it is convenient) last year would have been more than adequate to make the playoffs.

    Winning 101 games is unlikely this year.

    But I repeat: Why should this team not be favored to make the playoffs as of today as currently constructed?

    Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens: “C’mon Orioles, Do Something!”

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, deward said:

    That's not really the premise of the article. Clemens isn't arguing for Elias to do something for the sake of doing something, he's essentially arguing that it would be a potential waste of a very good team and opportunity if Elias ultimately ends up not making any moves to buttress areas of concern (like the rotation) due to reluctance to part with prospects or commit money. His point boils down to one sentence:

    image.png.6d563da058208732464d46ee6a80e11b.png

    They said the same sh last year.  And they were wrong.

    What are your expectations for John Means in 2024?

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    150ish innings high 3 ERA.

    Basically, he's the pitcher he was before the surgery.  That's probably optimistic, but the record of recovery from TJ surgery nowadays is pretty high, and we saw him last year looking pretty solid.

    I do worry about the aggravation that caused him to miss the playoffs; I would feel stronger about my prediction with some clarity on that situation.

    Cease vs everyone else

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

    Tell you what.  When it’s mid season and he’s got 2 homers feel free to rib me.  On the other hand, I’m going to link to his first 400 foot homer and do the same.

    No, that's always the game.  We all agree to that by being on the internet.  

    Cease vs everyone else

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

    I saw some comments that hated the swing.  Doesn’t mean much to me.  Can he hit and can he hit for some power.  If he can, I don’t care if someone thinks his swing is not a thing of beauty.   Hunter Pence had a weird swing.   As long as it gets the job done.  I honestly think the swing looks good but I’m no Ted Williams.  I can see it with Dylan Beavers.  Can’t see anything strange here.  I guess I’m not as technical as you guys.

    If this guy can just hit line drives into the alleys that could be enough power with everything else he does.

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