Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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Just now, interloper said:
They got the equivalent of like Grayson, basically. Really Pepiot is a probably a tier below Grayson but we don't really have that type of pitching prospect right now with ML success like Pepiot has, plus 5 years of control.
So, I think a guy like Burnes would require similar, and Cease just a bit less (but close with the extra year of control).
Basically, I'm saying it justifies the White Sox asking for as much as they probably are. And we either give up something regrettable like Kjerstad and Hall, or we don't make the trade.
Pepiot couldn't sniff Grayson' jock in terms of value.
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17 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:
The money these guys are getting is insane. People still thinking 2 solid prospects for Cease is too much? Hardly.
Outrageous free agent contracts could easily be interpreted to mean the O's should be hanging on to their prospects.
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1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:
Is he considered an impart arm?
I don't know about that, but there are things to like about him and he would probably upgrade the rotation.
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Just now, Roll Tide said:
Santander/Hays/Mountcastle plus?
Santander is probably considered an impact bat; Hays and Mountcastle you could probably sell as "impact" position players- in that they're above average regulars.
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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:
Westburg? Cowser? Kjerstad?
Are any of those guys considered impact bats?
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
As a licensed attorney, it would be against the applicable code of professional conduct for Boras to keep that from his client.
Somebody's lying then.
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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:
By the way, this thread really is “Cease vs. everybody else.” Emphasis on “everybody else.” How does Santander’s FA value get here?
We're at page 85. Santander is about the 17th guy to get a deep dive.
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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Sure but betting on themselves isn’t uncommon either.
Either way, I would not be making any AS decision with thought that the would walk away from a QO.
It's a factor to consider but is no certainty, and isn't crazy valuable anyway.
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
But let’s say he can get a 3/50 deal but can make 21ishM in 2025. I could see him taking that and betting that in 2026-2027 that he could make 30M or more and perhaps a longer term deal than that.
Maybe. Players tend to like longer contracts and more guaranteed money for a number of reasons.
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Just now, Frobby said:
We did a poll earlier this offseason and most people said 3/$50 mm or more. I said probably 4/$75 mm or more, based on a comp with Castellanos, who got 5/$100 mm. Of course, all contingent on Santander having a similar season in 2024 to 2022/23.
I remember that thread, and I believe I said 4/80, which others suggested was too high, and perhaps with hindsight they were correct.
I'm still fairly confident, if Santander has another season as he has the last two, he'd get a multi-year deal that made turning down the QO the smart thing to do.
Something I think that would lend to that is something that hasn't been discussed, but he would in this hypothetical hit the market being viewed as a "winner"/a "winning player." He would be seen as a young vet leader that was instrumental in one of the historic turnarounds the game has ever seen. It's not everything, but it's something. Nobody is going to have to worry about fitting in the clubhouse, or committed to winning, etc.
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2 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:
It will be interesting to see. I could see another team offering him 3/45 and him taking that financial security over the QO. This assumes his 2024 is on par with his last couple of years.
I think 3/45 would be the lowend of what he's looking at with another "typical" season, and yeah, I think he'd take that over 1/20.
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6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
That's fair. If he's offered a QO, he's accepting the QO. The draft pick doesn't really factor in. It's all about the team control of Santander in that path.
I'm not sure I agree with that. If he puts up another 30 Hr 30 2b season, he'd be looking at multiyear deals that far outstripped 20 in total value.
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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
First of all, no he doesn’t have a solid chance at that. Stop being a homer.
Secondly, the third piece in the trade was talking about expanding the deal for Kopech, not just Cease
Well I guess I have to define solid. I'd put solid in the ~20% range. I definitely think there's a 1 in 5 chance that Wells is better than Cease next year.
Second, ok I just wanted to confirm.
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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
He’s youngish, cheap and has had a lot of ML success. As a third piece in a deal, that’s not bad for some team.
As a third piece for Dylan Cease? LOL.
Yeah, he's got a solid chance of being better than Cease next year on his own. That's madness.
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2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Ok fine, don't take a player's MLB success seriously, but I seem to mistakenly believe the whole point of prospects is to end up w/ successful MLB players. Carry on.
Oh please. You want to say even though Cowser has long been a better prospect than the other guy, because of six weeks of their first taste of the MLs, suddenly those years of evaluations are wrong. Sorry, but you are mistaken.
Again, if anybody I'm in talks with starts talking about "Cowser only hit .188 this year" then you walk away because they're not negotiating in good faith.
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1 minute ago, interloper said:
I think I agree with a caveat. Mullins has a lot more ways to accumulate WAR but has also had a 3-year decline in WAR (5.9 to 3.8 to 2.8).
Well last year's "decline" was based solely on him missing some time with injuries.
Now if that continues, yeah it's a problem.
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1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Cowser and Pepiot both played in the majors in MLB (Pepiot also saw limited action w/ the Dodgers in 2022). Cowser hit .115 w/ a .433 OPS and Pepiot pitched 42 inning including 3 starts w/ a 2.14 ERA. I would say that even if Cowser and Pepiot were seen as similarly valued prospects, Pepiot's MLB success would put him ahead of Cowser.
Again, if anybody I'm dealing with tries to discount Cowser because of his ML time, then I'm not engaging with them in a serious way because they're not serious people.
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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I don’t see why. Pepiot was in the range of our 4-6 prospects, has performed well at the major league level and still has 6 years of service remaining. They are getting one year of Glasnow, who’s a good pitcher when healthy but is oft-injured and has never thrown more than 120 innings in a season. Cease has a good track record of health and has two years of service remaining.
Margot is also part of this trade, but if the Rays kept him they’d be on the hook for $10 mm this year plus a $2 mm option buyout next year. He was worth 0.6 rWAR last year and I suspect Tampa is happy to have him off the books.
I probably overestimated Glasnow in regards to Cease, as @StottyByNature, has likewise pointed out.
IMO, Cowser and Ortiz is 2x the value of what the Rays just received for Glasnow and I don't believe Cease has 2x the value of Glasnow.
Some people might, and I can't argue it, because it's an opinion and a valid one.
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4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
If you think Andrew Friedman and Mike Elias' valuations on signing bonuses are ballpark sound, those guessed Cowser was 9X the prospect Pepiot was starting out.
Pepiot's ahead of Cowser in demonstrating some MLB aptitude.
Sure, but if anybody is going to discount Cowser based on 78 ML PAs then you walk away.
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4 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:
I suppose reasonable minds can disagree but I absolutely think Cease is 2x more valuable than Glasnow. You get him for two seasons and he has been significantly more healthy than Glasnow. Glasnow has only gone over 100 innings once. Cease is also relatively cheaper.
Well, in that case you'd probably be comfortable giving up Cowser and Ortiz. As you said, reasonable minds can disagree.
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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
First of all, you have no idea what they are getting offered. The market determines what is an overpay and since you have no idea what the market is saying, it’s foolish to say it is.
And you absolutely can make the argument that Cease for one extra year and less money than Glasnow makes for one year is worth significantly more. How much more is determined by the market.
Losing Ortiz is irrelevant to the Os in terms of saying, Ortiz isn’t someone you walk away from the deal over. This is really all about who you pair with him.
If the WS are getting offered either young established MLers and/or borderline top 50 guys, this is obviously not an overpay.
Now, if the market is saying the best they can get (in terms of a headliner) is a prospect that is really more of a top 75 guy, then yes, this would be an overpay.
For me, I would rather overpay than not get him. As long as we aren’t trading any of our top 3 or the obvious ML guys, I don’t particularly care. The depth is there everywhere and I trust that Elias can replenish talent that we lose.
Neither do you, but you don't let that stop you from saying it isn't an overpay, so by your own standards, you're being foolish.
And that's where we differ. I'd rather not get him than give up more than he's worth. IMO, Cowser and Ortiz can have prominent roles on this team going forward. I'm not COMPELLED to give that up for Cease.
He's not the only pitcher in the world, and I don't think we need to upgrade the rotation for the regular season, but I agree with you and others we should be looking to upgrade the playoff rotation. If something doesn't get done this offseason, there's always the deadline and perhaps a more favorable opportunity.
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6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
A top 50 pitching prospect is worth more than a top 50 position player. Pepiot is more valuable than Cowser. He's certainly more valuable than a package of Ortiz and Norby.
LOL. Says who? History would suggest the exact opposite.
Pepiot was a top 60 guy coming into this year and was oft-injured.
Cowser was a top 30 guy who had a very good AAA season and made his ML debut. Pepiot has nowhere near the value of Cowser.
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16 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:
Exactly the position Johnny wanted to put him in, which makes it more likely he caves. Moore got played.
Imagine being so stupid you got played by John Angelos.
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3 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:
Isn't just the Rays being the Rays and jettisoning guys who are sort of expensive for decent prospects? Maybe they're kicking in a little money for a prospect like Pepiot.
Sure, it's the Rays doing what the Rays do.
But it also tells us about the trade market, because obviously, the Rays took the best deal they could get.
If this is the best deal they could get for Glasnow, then it suggests that Cowser/Ortiz is a serious overpay for Cease.
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MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread
in Orioles Talk
Posted
He's pitched well in an extremely small sample size.