ChosenOne21
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Posts posted by ChosenOne21
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12 minutes ago, LTO's said:
This seems incredibly unlikely.
For sure. Mayo at 3B and Westburg at 2B seems more likely, and it's far from a sure thing that Mayo breaks camp.
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7 minutes ago, Safelykept said:
Kremer Is our #3? this board continues to go to sleep on John Means
It's at least possible Kremer pitches better than Means and ends up our #3, though I do agree right now he's the 4.
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2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:
Better than Kremer ….hes our #3 starter. We will be lucky to get a guy to be a 5th starter that’s slightly better than what we have available now. Replacing Gibson was an Elias failure. The offseason is an Elias failure. Kimbrel is an old worn out shoe and Angelos is cheap. Neither is serious about winning a World Series. If they were they would’ve upgraded the team in some meaningful way.
If they trade for Cease he's better than Kremer. I still think there's a pretty good chance that happens, though there's also a pretty good chance it doesn't.
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I think there's a great chance they trade for someone better than Kremer, but the prediction I'm most comfortable with is "better than our 5th starter options."
I have to believe they'll do something. They can't use all these prospects.
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On 1/25/2024 at 6:28 PM, Orange said:
For Luzardo? That package doesn't scratch the surface. Needs a headliner from our top 5 or 6... and probably another good one. Ortiz has some value but those other guys aren't worth much. Luzardo is a bona-fide LH ace with three years of control.
For sure. You're lucky if you can get Luzardo without including Mayo or Basallo. You're definitely not getting him without Cowser, Kjerstad, or Westburg in the deal, and the Marlins would be within rights to demand two out of those three.
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1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:
A bold and very Tampa Bay move would be to move Adley for pitching and slide in Basallo as catcher in 1 to 2 years
Adley looks to be a .260 ish 20 homer guy that is not even a great defensive catcher who is already 26
I'd say he'll probably be more like a .280/20 HR guy with above average catcher defense who will have multiple years better than that.
I don't totally hate the idea though, but it's probably next offseason at the earliest before the team considers moving Adley if they ever would.
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Yeah, Jones would have had to double his career WAR to be a shoo-in for the Hall. Great baseball player, but not an all-time great.
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9 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:
I want to see the total they have spent on these moves like this, its probably enough to sign an actual good player
I doubt it. A lot of MLB cash transactions are 4-5 figures. It's quite possible we bought Tyler Nevin for $1,000.
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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Just look at who Hernandez was traded for last winter: Erik Swanson and Adam Macko. That’s a reasonable approximation of what Santander would bring back in a trade.
A damn good reliever and a SP lottery ticket? Sign me up.
But you're right that it isn't an absolute ton and no one is looking at Santander and salivating about trading their top prospects for him.
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11 minutes ago, Malike said:
Hader got less money than Diaz. I hope his ego can recover, I heard he wanted more by even a dollar according to MLB Radio chatter.
When you account for deferrals, he got more in present value making the contract a bigger cap hit than Diaz's. So he kind of got more money I guess?
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If he hits anything close to those guys and sticks behind the plate, he's going to be a top 5 in WAR player
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39 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
That's not what @ChosenOne21was saying. He was questioning Clemens' sanity by only having Kremer as a "reasonable" #5 (vs. something higher). And Means' history isn't quite IP eater category. At least that's how I read the comment.
Correct. Kremer is much better than a reasonable 5th starter.
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1 minute ago, Pickles said:
Doing something for the sake of doing something is a sure-fire way to do something stupid.
Elias isn't Jerry DiPoto. If he makes a move it won't be for the sake of doing something.
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16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
He’s basically saying Cowser, Ortiz, and some veterans. So his package and yours really aren’t much different. If they prefer veterans and plan to compete they may view Santander as more valuable than the 3rd or 4th player in a prospect deal. I’m not sure they’d need or want Mateo. So there’s that, Also Santander would likely be very popular in Miami and can likely be extended for a reasonable contract.
Mateo has basically no trade value. I'd send him if they wanted him, but that's not going to save us putting Povich in the deal, or whoever.
I'd buy the plane tickets myself if they'd take Cowser + Ortiz + Mateo + Santander, but no matter how much the Marlins prefer veterans, that's not going to happen. I sort of doubt there's a package of "veterans" the Marlins would take that we'd be willing to give. We don't really have "veterans."
Maybe something like Westburg + Mountcastle + Santander + Mateo + Ortiz gets you there or pretty close, but that's trading them an entire infield, and I don't know that they want that. Santander might need to be replaced with Hays in that deal.
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4 hours ago, wildcard said:
Why do veterans need to make market salaries? Santander, Hays, Mullins, Means, Coulombe are all veterans at this point.
Because they generally won't play for less if they have other options? It's pretty hard to add outside talent for below market rates.
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I mean, it's a nice article. Even if he's stating the obvious, he's stating it really well and showing how the O's aren't acting like any other team in their position seemingly would.
Then he calls Means an innings eater and Kremer a reasonable fifth starter and I wonder if he's sniffing glue.
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5 hours ago, EERinthe804 said:
I’ve finally decided…I want Jesus Lazardo from Marlins. I think he’s a better pitcher than Cease.
I’d give up Santander, Mateo (they need a SS), Ortiz, and Cowser. Lazardo is under control for 3 years and he’ll likely get via arbitration $5.5m/yr which will increase slightly per year.
Now, what if the Os also did something crazy on top of that? It could only happen if Cody Bellinger doesn’t get the long term deal he’s looking for. Sign Bellinger for 2 years at $50m total deal. He’s a plus OF that can play all 3 positions + 1B. He takes Santander’s spot in the lineup and he looks fully healthy now after that nasty shoulder injury a few years ago. I love Santander but this is an upgrade over him at a reasonable cost. $25m vs $11.5m in 2024….only paying $14m more. Santander will be a FA after 2024 anyway.
So the Os would get a #2-3 SP and an upgrade in OF for relatively cheap.
Am I nuts?
I think that package is pretty light for Lazardo. The Marlins would demand Mayo or Basallo and be right to do so.
I think you're looking at something like Mayo + Ortiz + Povich/Santander + an interesting low minors guy or two for Lazardo.
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19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Do we appreciate them?
I appreciate that Voth's agent got him a major league deal. I would have thought for sure he'd have to settle for minor leagues
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It shouldn't be that hard to do WAR for the minors. Replacement would be the expected performance of an average performer/organizational guy in the league below if he were to be promoted. Or you take the average line from the league below and apply the adjustment for a higher league to it.
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I'm honestly not a fan of Povich, McDermott or Johnson. Johnson is almost certainly a reliever, I'm not sure Povich will be consistent enough to have success as an MLB starter, and McDermott seems to be back of the rotation at best.
I'd rather keep DeLeon and Baumeister because they at least have a chance to be more than that.
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12 hours ago, scarey1999 said:
They brought this exact topic up in a recent “On the Verge” podcast, claiming that Hilliard was a backup plan in case of trades or injury.
I would really hope Cowser is the plan A over Hilliard if Cowser is still here.
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19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Bradish is awesome, but every time I see something like that I always wonder how he did over his last 39 starts. They drew the line there for a reason and that reason is probably to make him look better than he is.
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For me Holiday, Basallo, Mayo are basically untouchable. I'd trade Kjerstad or Cowser, but probably not both. Don't have a huge preference on who stays.
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8 hours ago, larrytt said:
There’s lots of talk and rumors about trading away top prospects to bring Dylan Cease, an “ace,” to Baltimore. Yes, he was great for one year in 2022 (2.20 ERA, his only year as an “ace”) and also good in 2021 (3.91, first full season, not ace level), but in 2023 he had a 4.58 ERA with an atrocious 1.418 WHIP. Many consider his 2022 somewhat of a fluke since he led the league in walks but somehow got away with it for one year. (He was third in MLB in ERA, but only 20th in WHIP at 1.11.) So, I’m looking at the Orioles current potential starters. There are health and stamina concerns with Means and Wells, which means we need depth, but if healthy, you want to start your five best starters. Looking mostly at ERA, here are my rough rankings:
1. Kyle Bradish 2.83
2. Grayson Rodriguez 4.35 (2.58 in second half)
3. John Means 2.66 in 23.2 innings (3.62 in 2021, missed 2022 with Tommy John surgery)
4. Dean Kremer 4.12 (3.23 in 2022)
5. Tyler Wells 3.64 (4.25 in 2022)
6. Dylan Cease 4.58 (4.30 first half, 4.96 second half)
Maybe Cease will recover from his 2023 pitching woes, but until he shows his previous form, he seems to have pitched himself out of anything close to ace-hood and is more like a #5 starter, and a #6 starter on a contending team. So . . . can someone explain to me as if I were a child why he’s still regularly referred to as an “ace” or why you believe he should start ahead of any of the other five (other than that if we trade for him, we are obligated to do so)? But we do need to get another dependable starter, but more like a #3 inning-eater type.
I remember a few months ago calculating what Cease's ERA would have been if he had the Orioles' defense behind him and it was something like 4.01-4.07. So it's not unreasonable to say our pitchers would have been about half a run of ERA worse if they pitched for the Sox. Let's compare apples to apples here.
I would 100% take Kyle Bradish over Dylan Cease. I think it is extremely likely Grayson Rodriguez has a better season than him as well. After that, I think I want Cease more than the other pitchers you mentioned. Means is a pretty huge question mark coming back from TJ and never really making it through a whole year healthy, while Cease has been the picture of health. I think Kremer's 3.23 was a fluke and he's likely a 4.00-4.25 ERA or so pitcher going forward. I think Cease has more upside. Wells hasn't made it through a full year in the rotation yet, and while I think there's a good chance he pitches better than Cease while he's there, I'm not sure he can keep it up for a full year.
You'd have to be wearing orange-colored glasses to pick any of those pitchers over Cease except for Bradish and Rodriguez.
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New hat leak?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I never liked the realistic bird. Reminds me too much of the dark years from 1998-2011.